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Covered Interest Parity and Speculative Efficiency: Some Empirical Evidence for Australia

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  • STEPHEN J. TURNOVSKY
  • KATRINA M. BALL

Abstract

Two key relationships which feature prominently through out modern international monetary theory are: (i) covered interest parity and(ii) speculative efficiency of the foreign exchange market, i.e., the unbiasedness of the forward rate as a predictor of the spot rate. This paper presents some empirical evidence for these two hypotheses using Australian data over the period September 1974 to December 1981 during which the Australian dollar was essentially floating. Both quarterly and overlapping monthly data are used. The results obtained generally provide some support for the two hypotheses.

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  • Stephen J. Turnovsky & Katrina M. Ball, 1983. "Covered Interest Parity and Speculative Efficiency: Some Empirical Evidence for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 59(3), pages 271-280, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:59:y:1983:i:3:p:271-280
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1983.tb00815.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    2. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    3. Geweke, John F & Feige, Edgar L, 1979. "Some Joint Tests of the Efficiency of Markets for Forward Foreign Exchange," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 334-341, August.
    4. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1977. "The Forward Exchange Rate, Expectations, and the Demand for Money: The German Hyperinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 653-670, September.
    5. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1977. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1209-1226, December.
    6. Frenkel, Jacob A., 1979. "Further evidence on expectations and the demand for money during the German hyperinflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 81-96, January.
    7. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1981. "Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices, and the Role of "News": Lessons from the 1970s," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 665-705, August.
    8. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
    9. Eaton, Jonathan & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1982. "Effects of monetary disturbances on exchange rates with risk averse speculation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 21-37, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arusha Cooray, 2003. "Financial integration: some evidence from Australia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(15), pages 959-966.
    2. Lindsay I. Hogan, 1986. "A Comparison of Alternative Exchange Rate Forecasting Models," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(2), pages 215-223, June.
    3. Ian G. Sharpe, 1985. "Interest Parity, Monetary Policy and the Volatility of Australian Short‐Term Interest Rates: 1978–1982," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 61(1), pages 436-444, March.
    4. Felmingham, Bruce & Leong, SuSan, 2005. "Parity conditions and the efficiency of the Australian 90- and 180-day forward markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 127-145.
    5. Bruce Felmingham & SuSan Leong, 2005. "Parity conditions and the efficiency of the Australian 90‐ and 180‐day forward markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(2), pages 127-145.
    6. P. Chong, 1987. "Does Interest Parity Hold for Australia?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 87-03, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    7. Bertrand BLANCHETON (CMHE-IFReDE-GRES) & Samuel MAVEYRAUD-TRICOIRE (Université Bordeaux IV), 2006. "The indicators of international financial integration: A set of convergent measures (In French)," Cahiers du GRES (2002-2009) 2006-13, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales.
    8. S.P.G. Teo, 1990. "The Efficiency of the Australian Foreign Exchange Market," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 90-25, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    9. Warren J. Tease, 1988. "Speculative Efficiency and the Exchange Rate: Some Evidence Since the Float," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(1), pages 2-13, March.

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