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Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management
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Cited by:
- Leopoldo Catania & Nima Nonejad, 2016. "Density Forecasts and the Leverage Effect: Some Evidence from Observation and Parameter-Driven Volatility Models," Papers 1605.00230, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2016.
- Clements, Michael P., 2010.
"Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
- Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," Economic Research Papers 269881, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2019.
"From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts,"
Working Papers
1947, Banco de España.
- Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2019. "From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: Obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts," Economics Working Papers 1689, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2020. "From Fixed-Event to Fixed-Horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-Horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts," Working Papers 1142, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Lee, Tae-Hwy & Long, Xiangdong, 2009. "Copula-based multivariate GARCH model with uncorrelated dependent errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 207-218, June.
- Markku Lanne, 2009. "Properties of Market-Based and Survey Macroeconomic Forecasts for Different Data Releases," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2231-2240.
- Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017.
"Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
- Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2016. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," MPRA Paper 75424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2016. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," BCAM Working Papers 1603, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
- Memmel, Christoph & Wehn, Carsten, 2005. "The supervisor's portfolio: the market price risk of German banks from 2001 to 2003 - Analysis and models for risk aggregation," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
- Bauwens, Luc & Giot, Pierre & Grammig, Joachim & Veredas, David, 2004.
"A comparison of financial duration models via density forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 589-609.
- BAUWENS , Luc & GIOT, Pierre & GRAMMIG, Joachim & VEREDAS, David, 2000. "A comparison of financial duration models via density forecasts," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2000060, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- BAUWENS, Luc & GIOT, Pierre & GRAMMIG, Joachim & VEREDAS, David, 2004. "A comparison of financial duration models via density forecasts," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1746, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Luc Bauwens & Pierre Giot & Joachim Grammig & David Veredas, 2004. "A comparison of financial duration models via density forecast," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/136218, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Luc Bauwens & Pierre Giot & Joachim Grammig & David Veredas, 2000. "A Comparison of Financial Duration Models via Density Forecasts," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0810, Econometric Society.
- Charles Goodhart & Miguel Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," FMG Discussion Papers dp627, Financial Markets Group.
- Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003.
"Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 82, European Central Bank.
- Hendry, David F & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 99, Royal Economic Society.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements & Department of Economics & University of Warwick, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 78, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Bowsher, Clive G., 2007.
"Modelling security market events in continuous time: Intensity based, multivariate point process models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 876-912, December.
- Clive Bowsher, 2002. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2002-W22, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Clive G. Bowsher, 2005. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity Based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2005-W26, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Clive G. Bowsher, 2003. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity Based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2003-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Ivanova, Vesela & Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria, 2014. "Interest rate forecasts, state price densities and risk premium from Euribor options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 210-223.
- Antonello D’Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2016.
"Nowcasting Business Cycles: A Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models,"
Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 569-594,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Michele Modugno, 2015. "Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005.
"Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 6-16, March.
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-42, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Campbell, Sean D. & Diebold, Francis X., 2004. "Weather forecasting for weather derivatives," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 10141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-050 is not listed on IDEAS
- Etienne Theising, 2024. "Distributional Reference Class Forecasting of Corporate Sales Growth With Multiple Reference Variables," Papers 2405.03402, arXiv.org.
- Gian Luigi Mazzi & James Mitchell & Gaetana Montana, 2014. "Density Nowcasts and Model Combination: Nowcasting Euro-Area GDP Growth over the 2008–09 Recession," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 233-256, April.
- Li, Xiao-Ming & Rose, Lawrence C., 2009. "The tail risk of emerging stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 242-256, December.
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2013.
"Modeling CAC40 volatility using ultra-high frequency data,"
Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 68-81.
- Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Modeling CAC40 Volatility Using Ultra-high Frequency Data," MPRA Paper 80445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Trino-Manuel Niguez & Javier Perote, 2004.
"Forecasting the density of asset returns,"
STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series
479, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Niguez, Trino-Manuel & Perote, Javier, 2004. "Forecasting the density of asset returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6845, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011.
"The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
- Dr Silvia Lui & Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2009. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 343, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Philippe J. Deschamps, 2008. "Comparing smooth transition and Markov switching autoregressive models of US unemployment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 435-462.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2000.
"Exchange Rate Returns Standardized by Realized Volatility are (Nearly) Gaussian,"
Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 4(3-4), pages 159-179, September.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "Exchange Rate Returns Standardized by Realized Volatility are (Nearly) Gaussian," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-060, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2000. "Exchange Rate Returns Standardized by Realized Volatility are (Nearly) Gaussian," NBER Working Papers 7488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "Exchange Rate Returns Standardized by Realized Volatility Are (Nearly) Gaussian," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-29, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Kretschmer, Uta & Pigorsch, Christian & Tauchen, George, 2009.
"A discrete-time model for daily S & P500 returns and realized variations: Jumps and leverage effects,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 151-166, June.
- Tim Bollerslev & Uta Kretschmer & Christian Pigorsch & George Tauchen, 2007. "A Discrete-Time Model for Daily S&P500 Returns and Realized Variations: Jumps and Leverage Effects," CREATES Research Papers 2007-22, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Tim Bollerslev & Uta Kretschmer & Christian Pigorsch & George Tauchen, 2010. "A Discrete-Time Model for Daily S&P500 Returns and Realized Variations: Jumps and Leverage Effects," Working Papers 10-06, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2013.
"Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 199-212.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2013. "Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities," Economics Working Papers 1368, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sehkposyan, 2013. "Conditional Predictive Density Evaluation in the Presence of Instabilities," Working Papers 688, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Markus Heinrich & Magnus Reif, 2018. "Forecasting using mixed-frequency VARs with time-varying parameters," ifo Working Paper Series 273, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Ross Askanazi & Francis X. Diebold & Frank Schorfheide & Minchul Shin, 2018.
"On the Comparison of Interval Forecasts,"
Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 953-965, November.
- Ross Askanazi & Francis X. Diebold & Frank Schorfheide & Minchul Shin, 2018. "On the Comparison of Interval Forecasts," PIER Working Paper Archive 18-013, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 02 Aug 2018.
- Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Kranendonk, H.C. & Lanser, D., 2007.
"On the optimality of expert-adjusted forecasts,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2007-38, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Henk Kranendonk & Debby Lanser & P.H. Franses, 2007. "On the optimality of expert-adjusted forecasts," CPB Discussion Paper 92.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Cortes, Fabio & Lindner, Peter & Malik, Sheheryar & Segoviano, Miguel, 2018. "A comprehensive multi-sector tool for analysis of Systemic Risk and Interconnectedness (SyRIN)," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118928, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Clements, Michael P., 2014.
"Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
- Clements, Michael P, 2012. "Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 976, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P., 2012. "Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation," Economic Research Papers 270748, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Hua, Zhongsheng & Zhang, Bin, 2008. "Improving density forecast by modeling asymmetric features: An application to S&P500 returns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 716-725, March.
- Maik H. Wolters, 2015.
"Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 74-96, January.
- Wolters, Maik H., 2011. "Forecasting under Model Uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48723, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Wolters, Maik H., 2013. "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 2013-03, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," IMFS Working Paper Series 59, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
- Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "Evaluating point and density forecasts of DSGE models," MPRA Paper 36147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ravazzolo Francesco & Vahey Shaun P., 2014.
"Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 367-381, September.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Forecast Densities for Economic Aggregates from Disaggregate Ensembles," CAMA Working Papers 2010-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles," Working Paper 2010/02, Norges Bank.
- Heinen, Andréas & Rengifo, Erick, 2008.
"Multivariate reduced rank regression in non-Gaussian contexts, using copulas,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2931-2944, February.
- HEINEN, Andréas & RENGIFO, Erick, 2004. "Multivariate reduced rank regression in non-Gaussian contexts, using copulas," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2004032, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Laura Liu, 2018.
"Density Forecasts in Panel Data Models : A Semiparametric Bayesian Perspective,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2018-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Laura Liu, 2020. "Density Forecasts in Panel Data Models: A Semiparametric Bayesian Perspective," CAEPR Working Papers 2020-003, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
- Laura Liu, 2018. "Density Forecasts in Panel Data Models: A Semiparametric Bayesian Perspective," Papers 1805.04178, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
- Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey," Kiel Working Papers 1424, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006.
"On the selection of forecasting models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
- Kilian, Lutz & Inoue, Atsushi, 2003. "On the Selection of Forecasting Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 214, European Central Bank.
- González-Rivera, Gloria & Sun, Yingying, 2017.
"Density forecast evaluation in unstable environments,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 416-432.
- Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Yingying Sun, 2014. "Density Forecast Evaluation in Unstable Environments," Working Papers 201428, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera & Yingying Sun, 2016. "Density Forecast Evaluation in Unstable Environments," Working Papers 201606, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Arne Vogler & Florian Ziel, "undated". "On The Evaluation Of Binary Event Probability Predictions In Electricity Price Forecasting," EWL Working Papers 1911, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
- Wallis, Kenneth F., 2003.
"Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 165-175.
- Wallis, Kenneth F., 2001. "Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts and the Bank of England's fan charts," Working Paper Series 83, European Central Bank.
- Wallis, Kenneth F., 2002. "Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 181, Royal Economic Society.
- Matei Demetrescu & Mu-Chun Wang, 2014. "Incorporating Asymmetric Preferences into Fan Charts and Path Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 287-297, April.
- Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2008.
"Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 523-534, March.
- Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 523-534, March.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises," Working Papers 05-02, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- David Veredas & Juan Rodriguez-Poo & Antoni Espasa, 2001.
"On the (Intradaily) Seasonality and Dynamics of a Financial Point Process : A Semiparametric Approach,"
Working Papers
2001-19, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- VEREDAS, David & RODRIGUEZ-POO, Juan & ESPASA, Antoni, 2002. "On the (intradaily) seasonality and dynamics of a financial point process: a semiparametric approach," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2002023, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Veredas, David & Rodríguez Poo, Juan M., 2001. "On the (intradaily) seasonality and dynamics of a financial point process: a semiparametric approach," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws013321, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
- Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2011.
"Optimal prediction pools,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 130-141, September.
- John Geweke & Gianni Amisano, 2008. "Optimal Prediction Pools," Working Paper series 22_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Amisano, Gianni & Geweke, John, 2009. "Optimal Prediction Pools," Working Paper Series 1017, European Central Bank.
- David Kohns & Tibor Szendrei, 2021. "Decoupling Shrinkage and Selection for the Bayesian Quantile Regression," Papers 2107.08498, arXiv.org.
- Segoviano, Miguel A. & Goodhart, Charles, 2009. "Banking stability measures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24416, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Suzanne Emmer & Marie Kratz & Dirk Tasche, 2013. "What Is the Best Risk Measure in Practice? A Comparison of Standard Measures," Working Papers hal-00921283, HAL.
- Malte Knuppel & Fabian Kruger & Marc-Oliver Pohle, 2022.
"Score-based calibration testing for multivariate forecast distributions,"
Papers
2211.16362, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
- Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian & Pohle, Marc-Oliver, 2022. "Score-based calibration testing for multivariate forecast distributions," Discussion Papers 50/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "Revealing the arcane: an introduction to the art of stochastic volatility models," MPRA Paper 25511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2015.
"Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 366-380, July.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2012. "Real-time forecasting with a mixed-frequency VAR," Working Papers 701, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2013. "Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed-Frequency VAR," NBER Working Papers 19712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Matteo Iacopini & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2020.
"Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting,"
Papers
2006.11265, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
- Matteo Iacopini & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2020. "Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting," Working Papers No 06/2020, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Andrada-Félix, Julián & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2012.
"Historical financial analogies of the current crisis,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 190-192.
- Julián Andrada-Félix & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2011. "Historical financial analogies of the current crisis," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1110, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
- Julián Andrada-Félix & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2011. "Historical financial analogies of the current crisis," Working Papers 11-08, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
- Rubaszek, Michał, 2021.
"Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 531-546.
- Michał Rubaszek, 2019. "Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015.
"Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Papers (Old Series) 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2013. "Real-Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 9312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Luc, BAUWENS & Nikolaus, HAUTSCH, 2006.
"Modelling Financial High Frequency Data Using Point Processes,"
Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques)
2006039, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
- BAUWENS, Luc & HAUTSCH, Nikolaus, 2009. "Modelling financial high frequency data using point processes," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2123, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- BAUWENS, Luc & HAUTSCH, Nikolaus, 2006. "Modelling financial high frequency data using point processes," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2006080, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Bauwens, Luc & Hautsch, Nikolaus, 2007. "Modelling financial high frequency data using point processes," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-066, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004.
"Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1358, CESifo.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2005. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk Based Evaluation of Large Multi-Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 5279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," IEPR Working Papers 04.3, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
- Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni & Banca d'Italia), 2004. "Model Averaging and Value-at-Risk based Evaluation of Large Multi Asset Volatility Models for Risk Management," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Segoviano, Miguel A., 2006. "Consistent information multivariate density optimizing methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24511, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Ali, Sajid & Ameer, Saba, 2016. "Interdependence between Greece and other European stock markets: A comparison of wavelet and VMD copula, and the portfolio implications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 457(C), pages 8-33.
- Thomas Busch, 2008. "Testing the martingale restriction for option implied densities," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 61-81, March.
- Helton Saulo & Jeremias Leão & Víctor Leiva & Robert G. Aykroyd, 2019. "Birnbaum–Saunders autoregressive conditional duration models applied to high-frequency financial data," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 1605-1629, October.
- Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2019. "Measuring Data Uncertainty: An Application using the Bank of England's "Fan Charts" for Historical GDP Growth," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2019-08, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Gottschling, Andreas & Haefke, Christian & White, Halbert, 2008.
"Mixtures of t-distributions for finance and forecasting,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 175-192, May.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Gottschling, Andreas & Haefke, Christian & White, Halbert, 2007. "Mixtures of t-distributions for Finance and Forecasting," Economics Series 216, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Lux, Thomas, 2009.
"Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 638-655, November.
- Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey," Economics Working Papers 2008-07, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Yun, Jaeho, 2014. "Out-of-sample density forecasts with affine jump diffusion models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 74-87.
- Stanislav Anatolyev & Dmitry Shakin, 2006.
"Trade intensity in the Russian stock market:dynamics, distribution and determinants,"
Working Papers
w0070, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
- Stanislav Anatolyev & Dmitry Shakin, 2006. "Trade intensity in the Russian stock market:dynamics, distribution and determinants," Working Papers w0070, New Economic School (NES).
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"Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound,"
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