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Spectral Risk Measures with an Application to Futures Clearinghouse Variation Margin Requirements

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  • Cotter, John
  • Dowd, Kevin

Abstract

This paper applies an AR(1)-GARCH (1, 1) process to detail the conditional distributions of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses the conditional distribution for these contracts to estimate spectral risk measures, which are coherent risk measures that reflect a user’s risk-aversion function. It compares these to more familiar VaR and Expected Shortfall (ES) measures of risk, and also compares the precision and discusses the relative usefulness of each of these risk measures in setting variation margins that incorporate time-varying market conditions. The goodness of fit of the model is confirmed by a variety of backtests.

Suggested Citation

  • Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "Spectral Risk Measures with an Application to Futures Clearinghouse Variation Margin Requirements," MPRA Paper 3495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3495
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brennan, Michael J., 1986. "A theory of price limits in futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-233, June.
    2. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "Extreme spectral risk measures: An application to futures clearinghouse margin requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3469-3485, December.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Stelios Bekiros & Nikolaos Loukeris & Iordanis Eleftheriadis & Christos Avdoulas, 2019. "Tail-Related Risk Measurement and Forecasting in Equity Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 783-816, February.
    4. Pertaia, Giorgi & Prokhorov, Artem & Uryasev, Stan, 2022. "A new approach to credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Massimiliano Barbi & Silvia Romagnoli, 2016. "Optimal hedge ratio under a subjective re-weighting of the original measure," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(14), pages 1271-1280, March.
    6. Robert A. Jones & Christophe Pérignon, 2013. "Derivatives Clearing, Default Risk, and Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(2), pages 373-400, June.
    7. Mozumder, Sharif & Choudhry, Taufiq & Dempsey, Michael, 2018. "Spectral measures of risk for international futures markets: A comparison of extreme value and Lévy models," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 248-261.
    8. Takashi Kato, 2017. "Asymptotic Analysis for Spectral Risk Measures Parameterized by Confidence Level," Papers 1711.07335, arXiv.org.

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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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