IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Extreme Measures of Agricultural Financial Risk


  • John Cotter
  • Kevin Dowd
  • Wyn Morgan


Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of extreme agricultural financial risk for corn and soybean production in the US: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES) and Spectral Risk Measures (SRMs). We use Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the tail returns and present results for these three different risk measures using agricultural futures market data. We compare the estimated risk measures in terms of their size and precision, and find that they are all considerably higher than normal estimates; they are also quite uncertain, and become more uncertain as the risks involved become more extreme.

Suggested Citation

  • John Cotter & Kevin Dowd & Wyn Morgan, 2011. "Extreme Measures of Agricultural Financial Risk," Papers 1103.5962,
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1103.5962

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ben White & P. J. Dawson, 2005. "Measuring Price Risk on UK Arable Farms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 239-252.
    2. Siaplay, Mounir & Nganje, William E. & Kaitibie, Simeon, 2005. "Value-At-Risk And Food Safety Losses In Turkey Processing," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 23556, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    3. Fishburn, Peter C, 1977. "Mean-Risk Analysis with Risk Associated with Below-Target Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 116-126, March.
    4. Acerbi, Carlo, 2002. "Spectral measures of risk: A coherent representation of subjective risk aversion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1505-1518, July.
    5. Cotter, John, 2007. "Varying the VaR for unconditional and conditional environments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1338-1354, December.
    6. Colin A. Carter & Aaron Smith, 2007. "Estimating the Market Effect of a Food Scare: The Case of Genetically Modified StarLink Corn," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 522-533, August.
    7. Mark R. Manfredo & Raymond M. Leuthold, 2001. "Market risk and the cattle feeding margin: An application of Value-at-Risk," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 333-353.
    8. Carter, Colin A. & Smith, Aaron D., 2004. "The Market Effect of a Food Scare: The Case of Genetically Modified StarLink Corn," Working Papers 11997, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    9. Odening, M. & Mußhoff, O., 2002. "Value at Risk – ein nützliches Instrument des Risikomanagement in Agrarbetrieben?," Proceedings "Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.", German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 37.
    10. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
    11. Mario J. Miranda & Joseph W. Glauber, 1997. "Systemic Risk, Reinsurance, and the Failure of Crop Insurance Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 206-215.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Tarasov, Arthur, 2011. "Coherent Quantitative Analysis of Risks in Agribusiness: Case of Ukraine," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 3(4), December.
    2. Just, Małgorzata & Śmiglak-Krajewska, Magdalena, 5. "Extreme Price Risk On The Market Of Rapeseeds And Processed Rapeseed Products In Poland," Roczniki (Annals), Polish Association of Agricultural Economists and Agribusiness - Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistow Rolnictwa e Agrobiznesu (SERiA), issue 5.
    3. Husemann, Christoph & Novković, Nebojša, 2014. "Farm Management Information Systems: A Case Study On A German Multifunctional Farm," Economics of Agriculture, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(2).
    4. Just, Małgorzata & Śmiglak-Krajewska, Magdalena, 2015. "Extreme Price Risk on the Market of Soybean Meal," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Åšwiatowego, WydziaÅ‚ Nauk Ekonomicznych, Uniwersytet Warszawski, vol. 15(30).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
    • N52 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1103.5962. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.