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Spectral Risk Measures with an Application to Futures Clearinghouse Variation Margin Requirements

Author

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  • John Cotter

    (University College Dublin, Ireland)

  • Kevin Dowd

    (The University of Nottingham, UK)

Abstract

This paper applies an AR(1)-GARCH (1, 1) process to detail the conditional distributions of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts. It then uses the conditional distribution for these contracts to estimate spectral risk measures, which are coherent risk measures that reflect a user’s risk-aversion function. It compares these to more familiar VaR and Expected Shortfall (ES) measures of risk, and also compares the precision and discusses the relative usefulness of each of these risk measures in setting variation margins that incorporate time-varying market conditions. The goodness of fit of the model is confirmed by a variety of backtests.

Suggested Citation

  • John Cotter & Kevin Dowd, 2011. "Spectral Risk Measures with an Application to Futures Clearinghouse Variation Margin Requirements," Working Papers 200616, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucd:wpaper:2006/16
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    File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp200616.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brennan, Michael J., 1986. "A theory of price limits in futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-233, June.
    2. Fishburn, Peter C, 1977. "Mean-Risk Analysis with Risk Associated with Below-Target Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 116-126, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stelios Bekiros & Nikolaos Loukeris & Iordanis Eleftheriadis & Christos Avdoulas, 2019. "Tail-Related Risk Measurement and Forecasting in Equity Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 783-816, February.
    2. Massimiliano Barbi & Silvia Romagnoli, 2016. "Optimal hedge ratio under a subjective re-weighting of the original measure," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(14), pages 1271-1280, March.
    3. Robert A. Jones & Christophe Pérignon, 2013. "Derivatives Clearing, Default Risk, and Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(2), pages 373-400, June.
    4. Mozumder, Sharif & Choudhry, Taufiq & Dempsey, Michael, 2018. "Spectral measures of risk for international futures markets: A comparison of extreme value and Lévy models," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 248-261.
    5. Takashi Kato, 2017. "Asymptotic Analysis for Spectral Risk Measures Parameterized by Confidence Level," Papers 1711.07335, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spectral risk measures; Expected Shortfall; Value at Risk; GARCH; clearinghouse.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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