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Extreme Measures of Agricultural Financial Risk

  • Wyn Morgan
  • John Cotter
  • Kevin Dowd

Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of extreme agricultural financial risk for corn and soybean production in the US: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES) and Spectral Risk Measures (SRMs). We use Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to model the tail returns and present results for these three different risk measures using agricultural futures market data. We compare the estimated risk measures in terms of their size and precision, and find that they are all considerably higher than normal estimates; they are also quite uncertain, and become more uncertain as the risks involved become more extreme.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1477-9552.2011.00322.x
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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 63 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 65-82

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:63:y:2012:i:1:p:65-82
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  1. John Cotter, 2011. "Varying the VaR for Unconditional and Conditional Environments," Papers 1103.5649, arXiv.org.
  2. Mark R. Manfredo & Raymond M. Leuthold, 2001. "Market risk and the cattle feeding margin: An application of Value-at-Risk," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 333-353.
  3. Ben White & P. J. Dawson, 2005. "Measuring Price Risk on UK Arable Farms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 239-252.
  4. Fishburn, Peter C, 1977. "Mean-Risk Analysis with Risk Associated with Below-Target Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 116-26, March.
  5. Siaplay, Mounir & Nganje, William E. & Kaitibie, Simeon, 2005. "Value-At-Risk And Food Safety Losses In Turkey Processing," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 23556, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
  6. Carter, Colin A. & Smith, Aaron D., 2004. "The Market Effect of a Food Scare: The Case of Genetically Modified StarLink Corn," Working Papers 11997, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  7. Acerbi, Carlo, 2002. "Spectral measures of risk: A coherent representation of subjective risk aversion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1505-1518, July.
  8. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
  9. Mario J. Miranda & Joseph W. Glauber, 1997. "Systemic Risk, Reinsurance, and the Failure of Crop Insurance Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 206-215.
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