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Historical financial analogies of the current crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Julián Andrada-Félix

    (Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain.)

  • Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez

    (Dpto. Métodos Cuantitativos en Economía y Gestión , Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, E-35017 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain.)

  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

    (Departamento de Economía Cuantitativa, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Campus de Somosaguas, E-28223 Madrid, Spain.)

Abstract

Este trabajo intenta arrojar luz sobre las analogías históricas de la crisis actual. Para ello se compara la distribución de los rendimientos del Índice Dow Jones Industrial Average durante un período de 769 días (del 15 de septiembre de 2008, la quiebra de Lehman Brothers, hasta septiembre de 2011), con todas las distribuciones históricas posibles de rendimientos calculados con una ventana móvil de 769 días desde e 2 de enero de 1900 al 12 de septiembre de 2008. Mediante el uso de un contraste no paramétrico Kolmogorov-Smirnov y de un contraste de Chi cuadrado, ambos de homogeneidad en la distribución, encontramos que la distribución de rendimientos durante la crisis actual sería similar a varios períodos anteriores de grave crisis financiera que evolucionaron hacia intensas recesiones, siendo el episodio que abarca del 28 de mayo de 1935 al 17 de junio de 1938 el más análogo a la situación actual. Además, al aplicar el procedimiento propuesto por Diebold, Gunther y Tay (1998) para comparar las densidades de sub-muestras, se obtiene un apoyo adicional para nuestros hallazgos y se detecta un subperíodo entre el 10 de septiembre de 1930 y el 13 de octubre de 1933, donde la gravedad de la crisis supera la situación actual, presentando eventos más pronunciados en las colas. Finalmente, al comparar el riesgo de mercado histórico con el riesgo actual, se observa que el riesgo de mercado actual sólo ha sido superado por el experimentado al comienzo de la Gran Depresión.

Suggested Citation

  • Julián Andrada-Félix & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2011. "Historical financial analogies of the current crisis," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1110, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucm:wpaper:1110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    2. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-227, May.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    8. Yochanan Shachmurove, 2011. "Reoccurring Financial Crises in the United States," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-006, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    9. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
    10. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Large shocks in the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index: 1928–2013," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Great Recession; Great Depression; Crisis financiera; Gran Recesión; Gran Depresión.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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