IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/econom/v182y2014i2p269-289.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling multivariate extreme events using self-exciting point processes

Author

Listed:
  • Grothe, Oliver
  • Korniichuk, Volodymyr
  • Manner, Hans

Abstract

We propose a model that can capture the typical features of multivariate extreme events observed in financial time series, namely, clustering behaviors in magnitudes and arrival times of multivariate extreme events, and time-varying dependence. The model is developed within the framework of the peaks-over-threshold approach in extreme value theory and relies on a Poisson process with self-exciting intensity. We discuss the properties of the model, treat its estimation, and address testing its goodness-of-fit. The model is applied to the return data of two stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Grothe, Oliver & Korniichuk, Volodymyr & Manner, Hans, 2014. "Modeling multivariate extreme events using self-exciting point processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 269-289.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:182:y:2014:i:2:p:269-289
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.03.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030440761400089X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.03.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. V. Chavez-Demoulin & A. C. Davison & A. J. McNeil, 2005. "Estimating value-at-risk: a point process approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 227-234.
    2. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2597-2649, December.
    3. Einmahl, J.H.J. & de Haan, L.F.M. & Krajina, A., 2009. "Estimating Extreme Bivariate Quantile Regions," Discussion Paper 2009-29, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Bowsher, Clive G., 2007. "Modelling security market events in continuous time: Intensity based, multivariate point process models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 876-912, December.
    5. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
    6. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
    7. Chavez-Demoulin, V. & McGill, J.A., 2012. "High-frequency financial data modeling using Hawkes processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3415-3426.
    8. Leadbetter, M. R., 1991. "On a basis for 'Peaks over Threshold' modeling," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 357-362, October.
    9. Okhrin, Ostap & Okhrin, Yarema & Schmid, Wolfgang, 2013. "On the structure and estimation of hierarchical Archimedean copulas," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(2), pages 189-204.
    10. Bollerslev, Tim & Todorov, Viktor & Li, Sophia Zhengzi, 2013. "Jump tails, extreme dependencies, and the distribution of stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 307-324.
    11. Aas, Kjersti & Czado, Claudia & Frigessi, Arnoldo & Bakken, Henrik, 2009. "Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 182-198, April.
    12. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    13. Jon Wongswan, 2006. "Transmission of Information across International Equity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1157-1189.
    14. Chavez-Demoulin, V. & Embrechts, P. & Neslehova, J., 2006. "Quantitative models for operational risk: Extremes, dependence and aggregation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2635-2658, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rachele Foschi & Francesca Lilla & Cecilia Mancini, 2020. "Warnings about future jumps: properties of the exponential Hawkes model," Working Papers 13/2020, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    2. Pushpa Dissanayake & Teresa Flock & Johanna Meier & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2021. "Modelling Short- and Long-Term Dependencies of Clustered High-Threshold Exceedances in Significant Wave Heights," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-33, November.
    3. Wu, Hanlin & Li, Pan & Cao, Jiawei & Xu, Zijian, 2024. "Forecasting the Chinese crude oil futures volatility using jump intensity and Markov-regime switching model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Francine Gresnigt & Erik Kole & Philip Hans Franses, 2017. "Specification Testing in Hawkes Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 139-171.
    5. Renee Fry-McKibbin & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Vance L. Martin, 2017. "Joint tests of contagion with applications to financial crises," CAMA Working Papers 2017-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Francine Gresnigt & Erik Kole & Philip Hans Franses, 2017. "Exploiting Spillovers to Forecast Crashes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(8), pages 936-955, December.
    7. Herrera, Rodrigo & González, Sergio & Clements, Adam, 2018. "Mutual excitation between OECD stock and oil markets: A conditional intensity extreme value approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 70-88.
    8. Ji, Jingru & Wang, Donghua & Xu, Dinghai, 2019. "Modelling the spreading process of extreme risks via a simple agent-based model: Evidence from the China stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 383-391.
    9. Tomlinson, Matthew F. & Greenwood, David & Mucha-Kruczyński, Marcin, 2024. "2T-POT Hawkes model for left- and right-tail conditional quantile forecasts of financial log returns: Out-of-sample comparison of conditional EVT models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 324-347.
    10. Candia, Claudio & Herrera, Rodrigo, 2024. "An empirical review of dynamic extreme value models for forecasting value at risk, expected shortfall and expectile," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Ji, Jingru & Wang, Donghua & Xu, Dinghai & Xu, Chi, 2020. "Combining a self-exciting point process with the truncated generalized Pareto distribution: An extreme risk analysis under price limits," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 52-70.
    12. Chan Joshua C.C. & Fry-McKibbin Renée A. & Hsiao Cody Yu-Ling, 2019. "A regime switching skew-normal model of contagion," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 1-24, February.
    13. Gresnigt, Francine & Kole, Erik & Franses, Philip Hans, 2015. "Interpreting financial market crashes as earthquakes: A new Early Warning System for medium term crashes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 123-139.
    14. Naoto Kunitomo & Ayao Ehara & Daisuke Kurisu, 2016. ""Causality analysis of financial markets by using the multivariate Hawkes Type models" (in Japanese)," CIRJE J-Series CIRJE-J-278, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    15. Bo Jing & Shenghong Li & Yong Ma, 2020. "Pricing VIX options with volatility clustering," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 928-944, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ji, Jingru & Wang, Donghua & Xu, Dinghai & Xu, Chi, 2020. "Combining a self-exciting point process with the truncated generalized Pareto distribution: An extreme risk analysis under price limits," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 52-70.
    2. Francine Gresnigt & Erik Kole & Philip Hans Franses, 2017. "Exploiting Spillovers to Forecast Crashes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(8), pages 936-955, December.
    3. Buccioli, Alice & Kokholm, Thomas & Nicolosi, Marco, 2019. "Expected shortfall and portfolio management in contagious markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 100-115.
    4. Volodymyr Korniichuk, 2012. "Forecasting extreme electricity spot prices," Cologne Graduate School Working Paper Series 03-14, Cologne Graduate School in Management, Economics and Social Sciences.
    5. Wheatley, Spencer & Filimonov, Vladimir & Sornette, Didier, 2016. "The Hawkes process with renewal immigration & its estimation with an EM algorithm," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 120-135.
    6. Fuentes, Fernanda & Herrera, Rodrigo & Clements, Adam, 2018. "Modeling extreme risks in commodities and commodity currencies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 108-120.
    7. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-041 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gresnigt, Francine & Kole, Erik & Franses, Philip Hans, 2015. "Interpreting financial market crashes as earthquakes: A new Early Warning System for medium term crashes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 123-139.
    9. Zhang, Shulin & Okhrin, Ostap & Zhou, Qian M. & Song, Peter X.-K., 2016. "Goodness-of-fit test for specification of semiparametric copula dependence models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 215-233.
    10. Hyun Jin Jang & Kiseop Lee & Kyungsub Lee, 2020. "Systemic risk in market microstructure of crude oil and gasoline futures prices: A Hawkes flocking model approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 247-275, February.
    11. Bladt, Martin & McNeil, Alexander J., 2022. "Time series copula models using d-vines and v-transforms," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 27-48.
    12. Yang Shen & Bin Zou, 2021. "Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection in Contagious Markets," Papers 2110.09417, arXiv.org.
    13. Francine Gresnigt & Erik Kole & Philip Hans Franses, 2017. "Specification Testing in Hawkes Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 139-171.
    14. Manner, Hans & Stark, Florian & Wied, Dominik, 2019. "Testing for structural breaks in factor copula models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 324-345.
    15. Eling, Martin & Jung, Kwangmin, 2020. "Risk aggregation in non-life insurance: Standard models vs. internal models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 183-198.
    16. Schatz, Michael & Wheatley, Spencer & Sornette, Didier, 2022. "The ARMA Point Process and its Estimation," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 164-182.
    17. Rémillard, Bruno & Papageorgiou, Nicolas & Soustra, Frédéric, 2012. "Copula-based semiparametric models for multivariate time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 30-42.
    18. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Measuring bilateral spillover and testing contagion on sovereign bond markets in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 151-165.
    19. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Jörg Schwiebert, 2016. "Multinomial choice models based on Archimedean copulas," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 100(3), pages 333-354, July.
    21. Anatoliy Swishchuk & Aiden Huffman, 2020. "General Compound Hawkes Processes in Limit Order Books," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time series; Peaks-over-threshold; Hawkes processes; Extreme value theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:182:y:2014:i:2:p:269-289. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.