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An Advanced Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of the Generation of Wind Power

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Bracale

    (Department of Engineering, University of Naples Parthenope, Centro Direzionale Is. C4, Naples 80143, Italy
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Pasquale De Falco

    (Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technologies, University of Naples Federico II Via Claudio 21, Naples 80125, Italy
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

Currently, among renewable distributed generation systems, wind generators are receiving a great deal of interest due to the great economic, technological, and environmental incentives they involve. However, the uncertainties due to the intermittent nature of wind energy make it difficult to operate electrical power systems optimally and make decisions that satisfy the needs of all the stakeholders of the electricity energy market. Thus, there is increasing interest determining how to forecast wind power production accurately. Most the methods that have been published in the relevant literature provided deterministic forecasts even though great interest has been focused recently on probabilistic forecast methods. In this paper, an advanced probabilistic method is proposed for short-term forecasting of wind power production. A mixture of two Weibull distributions was used as a probability function to model the uncertainties associated with wind speed. Then, a Bayesian inference approach with a particularly-effective, autoregressive, integrated, moving-average model was used to determine the parameters of the mixture Weibull distribution. Numerical applications also are presented to provide evidence of the forecasting performance of the Bayesian-based approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Bracale & Pasquale De Falco, 2015. "An Advanced Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of the Generation of Wind Power," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-22, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:8:y:2015:i:9:p:10293-10314:d:56103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Gael M. Martin & David T. Frazier & Ruben Loaiza-Maya & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & John Maheu & Didier Nibbering & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Bayesian Forecasting in the 21st Century: A Modern Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    7. Long Cai & Jie Gu & Jinghuan Ma & Zhijian Jin, 2019. "Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting Approach via Instance-Based Transfer Learning Embedded Gradient Boosting Decision Trees," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
    8. Tansu Filik, 2016. "Improved Spatio-Temporal Linear Models for Very Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-15, March.
    9. Sun, Gaiping & Jiang, Chuanwen & Cheng, Pan & Liu, Yangyang & Wang, Xu & Fu, Yang & He, Yang, 2018. "Short-term wind power forecasts by a synthetical similar time series data mining method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 575-584.
    10. Tawn, R. & Browell, J., 2022. "A review of very short-term wind and solar power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    11. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    12. Bijay Neupane & Wei Lee Woon & Zeyar Aung, 2017. "Ensemble Prediction Model with Expert Selection for Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, January.
    13. Ahmad, Tanveer & Zhang, Dongdong, 2022. "A data-driven deep sequence-to-sequence long-short memory method along with a gated recurrent neural network for wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    14. Akbal, Yıldırım & Ünlü, Kamil Demirberk, 2022. "A univariate time series methodology based on sequence-to-sequence learning for short to midterm wind power production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 832-844.
    15. Sun, Mucun & Feng, Cong & Zhang, Jie, 2020. "Multi-distribution ensemble probabilistic wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 135-149.
    16. Wu, Qiang & Zheng, Hongling & Guo, Xiaozhu & Liu, Guangqiang, 2022. "Promoting wind energy for sustainable development by precise wind speed prediction based on graph neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 977-992.

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