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Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch

Author

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  • Xinxin Zhu
  • Marc Genton
  • Yingzhong Gu
  • Le Xie

Abstract

To support large-scale integration of wind power into electric energy systems, state-of-the-art wind speed forecasting methods should be able to provide accurate and adequate information to enable efficient, reliable, and cost-effective scheduling of wind power. Here, we incorporate space-time wind forecasts into electric power system scheduling. First, we propose a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed forecasting model that allows the forecast regimes to vary with the dominant wind direction and with the seasons, hence avoiding a subjective choice of regimes. Then, results from the wind forecasts are incorporated into a power system economic dispatch model, the cost of which is used as a loss measure of the quality of the forecast models. This, in turn, leads to cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation. Potential economic benefits arise from the system-wide generation of cost savings and from the ancillary service cost savings. We illustrate the economic benefits using a test system in the northwest region of the United States. Compared with persistence and autoregressive models, our model suggests that cost savings from integration of wind power could be on the scale of tens of millions of dollars annually in regions with high wind penetration, such as Texas and the Pacific northwest. Copyright Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Xinxin Zhu & Marc Genton & Yingzhong Gu & Le Xie, 2014. "Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(1), pages 1-25, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:testjl:v:23:y:2014:i:1:p:1-25
    DOI: 10.1007/s11749-014-0351-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gneiting, Tilmann & Larson, Kristin & Westrick, Kenneth & Genton, Marc G. & Aldrich, Eric, 2006. "Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime-Switching SpaceTime Method," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 968-979, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julio César Cuenca Tinitana & Carlos Adrian Correa-Florez & Diego Patino & José Vuelvas, 2020. "Spatio-Temporal Kriging Based Economic Dispatch Problem Including Wind Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-26, December.
    2. Amanda S. Hering & Karen Kazor & William Kleiber, 2015. "A Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive Stochastic Wind Generator for Multiple Spatial and Temporal Scales," Resources, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, February.
    3. Ye, Lin & Zhao, Yongning & Zeng, Cheng & Zhang, Cihang, 2017. "Short-term wind power prediction based on spatial model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1067-1074.
    4. Ziel, Florian & Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2016. "Forecasting wind power – Modeling periodic and non-linear effects under conditional heteroscedasticity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 285-297.
    5. Daniel Ambach & Carsten Croonenbroeck, 2016. "Space-time short- to medium-term wind speed forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 25(1), pages 5-20, March.
    6. Lohmann, Timo & Hering, Amanda S. & Rebennack, Steffen, 2016. "Spatio-temporal hydro forecasting of multireservoir inflows for hydro-thermal scheduling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(1), pages 243-258.
    7. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Stadtmann, Georg, 2019. "Renewable generation forecast studies – Review and good practice guidance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 312-322.
    8. Ambach, Daniel & Schmid, Wolfgang, 2015. "Periodic and long range dependent models for high frequency wind speed data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 277-293.
    9. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2015. "Censored spatial wind power prediction with random effects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 613-622.
    10. Liu, Yin & Davanloo Tajbakhsh, Sam & Conejo, Antonio J., 2021. "Spatiotemporal wind forecasting by learning a hierarchically sparse inverse covariance matrix using wind directions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 812-824.
    11. Daniel Ambach & Carsten Croonenbroeck, 2016. "Space-time short- to medium-term wind speed forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 25(1), pages 5-20, March.
    12. Amanda Hering, 2014. "Comments on: Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(1), pages 34-44, March.

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