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Censored spatial wind power prediction with random effects

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  • Croonenbroeck, Carsten
  • Ambach, Daniel

Abstract

We investigate the importance of taking the spatial interaction of turbines inside a wind park into account for power forecasting. This paper provides two tests that check for spatial interdependence such as wake effects. Those effects are suspected to have a negative influence on wind power production. After that, we introduce a new modeling approach that is based on the generalized wind power prediction tool (GWPPT) and therefore respect both-sided censoring of the data. The new model makes use of a spatial lag model (SLM) specification and allows for random effects in the panel data. Finally, we provide a short empirical study that compares the forecasting accuracy of our model to the established models WPPT, GWPPT, and the naïve persistence predictor. We show that our new model provides significantly better forecasts than the established models.

Suggested Citation

  • Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2015. "Censored spatial wind power prediction with random effects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 613-622.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:613-622
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.06.047
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Ritter & Simone Pieralli & Martin Odening, 2017. "Neighborhood Effects in Wind Farm Performance: A Regression Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Ziel, Florian & Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2016. "Forecasting wind power – Modeling periodic and non-linear effects under conditional heteroscedasticity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 285-297.
    3. De Siano, Rita & Sapio, Alessandro, 2022. "Spatial merit order effects of renewables in the Italian power exchange," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. Matthias Ritter & Simone Pieralli & HMartin Odening, 2016. "Neighborhood Effects in Wind Farm Performance: An Econometric Approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-012, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    5. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Stadtmann, Georg, 2019. "Renewable generation forecast studies – Review and good practice guidance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 312-322.
    6. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Hüttel, Silke, 2017. "Quantifying the economic efficiency impact of inaccurate renewable energy price forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 767-774.

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