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Accurate medium-term wind power forecasting in a censored classification framework

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  • Croonenbroeck, Carsten
  • Møller Dahl, Christian

Abstract

We provide a wind power forecasting methodology that exploits many of the actual data's statistical features, in particular both-sided censoring. While other tools ignore many of the important stylized facts or provide forecasts for short-term horizons only, our approach focuses on medium-term forecasts, which are especially necessary for practitioners in the forward electricity markets of many power trading places; for example, NASDAQ OMX Commodities (formerly Nord Pool OMX Commodities) in northern Europe. We show that our model produces turbine-specific forecasts that are significantly more accurate in comparison to established benchmark models and present an application that illustrates the financial impact of more accurate forecasts obtained using our methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Møller Dahl, Christian, 2014. "Accurate medium-term wind power forecasting in a censored classification framework," Discussion Papers 351, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvwdp:351
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Song, MengXuan & Wu, BingHeng & Chen, Kai & Zhang, Xing & Wang, Jun, 2016. "Simulating the wake flow effect of wind turbines on velocity and turbulence using particle random walk method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 583-591.
    2. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2014. "Censored spatial wind power prediction with random effects," Discussion Papers 362, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    3. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Stadtmann, Georg, 2015. "Minimizing asymmetric loss in medium-term wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 197-208.
    4. María Pérez-Ortiz & Silvia Jiménez-Fernández & Pedro A. Gutiérrez & Enrique Alexandre & César Hervás-Martínez & Sancho Salcedo-Sanz, 2016. "A Review of Classification Problems and Algorithms in Renewable Energy Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-27, August.
    5. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2014. "A comparison of different wind power forecasting models to the Mycielski approach," Discussion Papers 355, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    6. Ziel, Florian & Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2016. "Forecasting wind power – Modeling periodic and non-linear effects under conditional heteroscedasticity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 285-297.
    7. Marčiukaitis, Mantas & Žutautaitė, Inga & Martišauskas, Linas & Jokšas, Benas & Gecevičius, Giedrius & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2017. "Non-linear regression model for wind turbine power curve," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 732-741.
    8. Jannik Schütz Roungkvist & Peter Enevoldsen, 2020. "Timescale classification in wind forecasting: A review of the state‐of‐the‐art," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 757-768, August.
    9. Piotr Powroźnik & Paweł Szcześniak & Łukasz Sobolewski & Krzysztof Piotrowski, 2022. "Novel Functionalities of Smart Home Devices for the Elastic Energy Management Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-17, November.
    10. Daniel Ambach & Carsten Croonenbroeck, 2016. "Space-time short- to medium-term wind speed forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 25(1), pages 5-20, March.
    11. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Stadtmann, Georg, 2019. "Renewable generation forecast studies – Review and good practice guidance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 312-322.
    12. Zhongrong Zhang & Yiliao Song & Feng Liu & Jinpeng Liu, 2016. "Daily Average Wind Power Interval Forecasts Based on an Optimal Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System and Singular Spectrum Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-30, January.
    13. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Hüttel, Silke, 2017. "Quantifying the economic efficiency impact of inaccurate renewable energy price forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 767-774.
    14. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Ambach, Daniel, 2015. "Censored spatial wind power prediction with random effects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 613-622.
    15. Daniel Ambach & Carsten Croonenbroeck, 2016. "Space-time short- to medium-term wind speed forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 25(1), pages 5-20, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Censored Regression; Wind Energy; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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