IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Forecasting and Prequential Validation for Time Varying Meta-Elliptical Distributions with a Study of Commodity Futures Prices

  • Sancetta, A.
  • Nikanrova, A.

We consider forecasting and prequential (predictive sequential) validation of meta-elliptical distributions with time varying parameters. Using the weak prequential principle of Dawid, we conduct model validation avoiding nuisance parameters problems. Results rely on the structure of meta-elliptical distributions and we allow for discontinuities in the marginals and time varying parameters. We use our approach for the study of a large data set of 16 commodity prices.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0516.

in new window

Length: 56
Date of creation: May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0516
Note: EM
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, 05.
  2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-30, August.
  3. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
  4. repec:oup:restud:v:73:y:2006:i:4:p:1057-1084 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
  6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1237, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-37, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  8. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2006. "The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 827-853, August.
  9. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
  10. Catalin Starica & Clive Granger, 2004. "Non-stationarities in stock returns," Econometrics 0411016, EconWPA.
  11. van Garderen, Kees Jan, 1997. "Curved Exponential Models in Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 771-790, December.
  12. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
  13. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:6:p:771-90 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
  15. Christian Genest & Bruno Rémillard, 2004. "Test of independence and randomness based on the empirical copula process," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 335-369, December.
  16. Marco Scarsini & Moshe Shaked & Haijun Li, 1996. "Linkages: A tool for the construction of multivariate distributions with given nonoverlapping multivariate marginals," Post-Print hal-00541800, HAL.
  17. Basrak, Bojan & Davis, Richard A. & Mikosch, Thomas, 2002. "Regular variation of GARCH processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 95-115, May.
  18. Kano, Y., 1994. "Consistency Property of Elliptic Probability Density Functions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 139-147, October.
  19. Starica, Catalin, 1999. "Multivariate extremes for models with constant conditional correlations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 515-553, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0516. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jake Dyer)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.