Forecasting and Prequential Validation for Time Varying Meta-Elliptical Distributions with a Study of Commodity Futures Prices
We consider forecasting and prequential (predictive sequential) validation of meta-elliptical distributions with time varying parameters. Using the weak prequential principle of Dawid, we conduct model validation avoiding nuisance parameters problems. Results rely on the structure of meta-elliptical distributions and we allow for discontinuities in the marginals and time varying parameters. We use our approach for the study of a large data set of 16 commodity prices.
|Date of creation:||May 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997.
"Evaluating density forecasts,"
97-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-37, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," NBER Technical Working Papers 0215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, . "Evaluating Density Forecasts," CARESS Working Papres 97-18, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
- Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989.
"On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices,"
145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Andrew Patton, 2004.
"Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence,"
wp04-04, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2004.
"Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks,"
IZA Discussion Papers
1196, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1057-1084.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4636, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1237, CESifo Group Munich.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1994.
"Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-30, August.
- Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," RCER Working Papers 322, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's GARCH models with time-varying t-densities," Statistical Software Components RTZ00086, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
- Li, Haijun & Scarsini, Marco & Shaked, Moshe, 1996.
"Linkages: A Tool for the Construction of Multivariate Distributions with Given Nonoverlapping Multivariate Marginals,"
Journal of Multivariate Analysis,
Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 20-41, January.
- Marco Scarsini & Moshe Shaked & Haijun Li, 1996. "Linkages: A tool for the construction of multivariate distributions with given nonoverlapping multivariate marginals," Post-Print hal-00541800, HAL.
- Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2006. "The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 827-853, August.
- Kano, Y., 1994. "Consistency Property of Elliptic Probability Density Functions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 139-147, October.
- VAN GARDEREN, Kees Jan, .
"Curved exponential models in econometrics,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
1316, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- van Garderen, K.J., 1995. "Curved exponential models in econometrics," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9508, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:6:p:771-90 is not listed on IDEAS
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
- R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
- Basrak, Bojan & Davis, Richard A. & Mikosch, Thomas, 2002. "Regular variation of GARCH processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 95-115, May.
- Starica, Catalin, 1999. "Multivariate extremes for models with constant conditional correlations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 515-553, December.
- Catalin Starica & Clive Granger, 2004.
"Non-stationarities in stock returns,"
- Christian Genest & Bruno Rémillard, 2004. "Test of independence and randomness based on the empirical copula process," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 13(2), pages 335-369, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0516. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jake Dyer)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.