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The forecasting performance of German stock option densities

Author

Listed:
  • Ben R. Craig
  • Ernst Glatzer
  • Joachim G. Keller
  • Martin Scheicher

Abstract

In this paper the authors estimate risk-neutral densities (RND) for the largest euro-area stock market (the index of which is the German DAX), reporting their statistical properties, and evaluating their forecasting performance. The authors have applied an innovative test procedure to a new, rich, and accurate data set. They have two main results. First, They have recorded strong negative skewness in the densities. Second, they find evidence for a significant difference between the actual density and the risk-neutral density, leading to the conclusion that market participants were surprised by the extent of both the rise and the fall of the DAX.

Suggested Citation

  • Ben R. Craig & Ernst Glatzer & Joachim G. Keller & Martin Scheicher, 2003. "The forecasting performance of German stock option densities," Working Papers (Old Series) 0312, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0312
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, "undated". "Evaluating Density Forecasts," CARESS Working Papres 97-18, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
    2. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
    3. Ben R. Craig & Joachim G. Keller, 2002. "The Empirical Performance of Option Based Densities of Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 60, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Lehar, Alfred & Scheicher, Martin & Schittenkopf, Christian, 2002. "GARCH vs. stochastic volatility: Option pricing and risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 323-345, March.
    5. Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2005. "Option pricing: Real and risk-neutral distributions," CoFE Discussion Papers 05/06, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    6. Keller, Joachim G. & Craig, Ben R., 2002. "The Empirical Performance of Option Based Densities of Foreign Exchange," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 1999. "Option Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Implied Binomial Trees: A Literature Review," MPRA Paper 11634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2000. "Reading the smile: the message conveyed by methods which infer risk neutral densities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 885-915, December.
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    11. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Wang, Yubo & Yared, Francis, 2001. "Do option markets correctly price the probabilities of movement of the underlying asset?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 67-110, May.
    12. Melick, William R. & Thomas, Charles P., 1997. "Recovering an Asset's Implied PDF from Option Prices: An Application to Crude Oil during the Gulf Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(1), pages 91-115, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Didier Sornette & Peter Cauwels & Georgi Smilyanov, 2017. "Can We Use Volatility to Diagnose Financial Bubbles? Lessons from 40 Historical Bubbles," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-27, Swiss Finance Institute.
    2. Scharnagl, Michael & Stapf, Jelena, 2015. "Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty: What drives euro-area option-implied inflation expectations, and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 248-269.
    3. Belén Nieto & Gonzalo Rubio, 2007. "Measuring time-varying economic fears with consumption-based stochastic discount factors," Economics Working Papers 1029, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2007.
    4. Alonso, Francisco & Blanco, Roberto & Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo, 2005. "Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities," DFAEII Working Papers 2005-09, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    5. Francisco Alonso & Roberto Blanco & Gonzalo Rubio, 2009. "Option-implied preferences adjustments, density forecasts, and the equity risk premium," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 141-164, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market - Germany; Stock options;

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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