The forecasting performance of German stock option densities
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Keller, Joachim & Glatzer, Ernst & Craig, Ben R. & Scheicher, Martin, 2003. "The Forecasting Performance of German Stock Option Densities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,17, Deutsche Bundesbank.
References listed on IDEAS
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, "undated".
"Evaluating Density Forecasts,"
CARESS Working Papres
97-18, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences.
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 97-37, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating density forecasts," Working Papers 97-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Francis X. Diebold & Todd A. Gunther & Anthony S. Tay, 1997. "Evaluating Density Forecasts," NBER Technical Working Papers 0215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997.
"New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
- Soderlind, P & Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," Papers 621, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Söderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1996. "New Techniques to Extract Market expectations from Financial Instruments," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 142, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Söderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars E O, 1997. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," CEPR Discussion Papers 1556, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paul Soderlind & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1997. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," NBER Working Papers 5877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Söderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," Seminar Papers 621, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Ben R. Craig & Joachim G. Keller, 2002. "The Empirical Performance of Option Based Densities of Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 60, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Lehar, Alfred & Scheicher, Martin & Schittenkopf, Christian, 2002. "GARCH vs. stochastic volatility: Option pricing and risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 323-345, March.
- Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2005.
"Option pricing: Real and risk-neutral distributions,"
CoFE Discussion Papers
05/06, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
- Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2007. "Option Pricing: Real and Risk-Neutral Distributions," MPRA Paper 11637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Keller, Joachim G. & Craig, Ben R., 2002.
"The Empirical Performance of Option Based Densities of Foreign Exchange,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2002,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Ben R. Craig & Joachim G. Keller, 2003. "The empirical performance of option-based densities of foreign exchange," Working Papers (Old Series) 0313, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 1999. "Option Implied Risk-Neutral Distributions and Implied Binomial Trees: A Literature Review," MPRA Paper 11634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2000.
"Reading the smile: the message conveyed by methods which infer risk neutral densities,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 885-915, December.
- Michael Rockinger & Eric Jondeau, 1997. "Reading the Smile: The Message Conveyed by Methods which Infer Risk Neutral Densities," Working Papers hal-00601591, HAL.
- Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 1998. "Reading the Smile: The Message Conveyed by Methods which Infer Risk Neutral Densities," CEPR Discussion Papers 2009, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 2001. "Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 133-148, February.
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Wang, Yubo & Yared, Francis, 2001. "Do option markets correctly price the probabilities of movement of the underlying asset?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 67-110, May.
- Melick, William R. & Thomas, Charles P., 1997. "Recovering an Asset's Implied PDF from Option Prices: An Application to Crude Oil during the Gulf Crisis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(1), pages 91-115, March.
- Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. "Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-1632, December.
- Bliss, Robert R. & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 2002. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 381-422, March.
CitationsCitations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Didier Sornette & Peter Cauwels & Georgi Smilyanov, 2017. "Can We Use Volatility to Diagnose Financial Bubbles? Lessons from 40 Historical Bubbles," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-27, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Scharnagl, Michael & Stapf, Jelena, 2015. "Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty: What drives euro-area option-implied inflation expectations, and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 248-269.
- Belén Nieto & Gonzalo Rubio, 2007. "Measuring time-varying economic fears with consumption-based stochastic discount factors," Economics Working Papers 1029, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2007.
- Alonso, Francisco & Blanco, Roberto & Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo, 2005.
"Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities,"
DFAEII Working Papers
2005-09, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
- Francisco Alonso & Roberto Blanco & Gonzalo Rubio, 2005. "Testing the forecasting performace of IBEX 35 option implied risk neutral densities," Working Papers 0504, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Francisco Alonso & Roberto Blanco & Gonzalo Rubio, 2009.
"Option-implied preferences adjustments, density forecasts, and the equity risk premium,"
Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 141-164, June.
- Francisco Alonso & Roberto Blanco & Gonzalo Rubio, 2006. "Option-implied preferences adjustments, density forecasts, and the equity risk premium," Working Papers 0630, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
Most related itemsThese are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
- Glatzer, Ernst & Scheicher, Martin, 2003. "Modelling the implied probability of stock market movements," Working Paper Series 212, European Central Bank.
- Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
- Vahamaa, Sami, 2005.
"Option-implied asymmetries in bond market expectations around monetary policy actions of the ECB,"
Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 23-38.
- Vähämaa, Sami, 2004. "Option-implied asymmetries in bond market expectations around monetary policy actions of the ECB," Working Paper Series 315, European Central Bank.
- Thomas Busch, 2008. "Testing the martingale restriction for option implied densities," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 61-81, March.
- Bondarenko, Oleg, 2003. "Estimation of risk-neutral densities using positive convolution approximation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 85-112.
- Ruijun Bu & Kaddour Hadri, 2005. "Estimating the Risk Neutral Probability Density Functions Natural Spline versus Hypergeometric Approach Using European Style Options," Working Papers 200510, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
- Coutant, Sophie & Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2001. "Reading PIBOR futures options smiles: The 1997 snap election," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1957-1987, November.
- Marcello Pericoli, 2005. "Can option smiles forecast changes in interest rates? An application to the US, the UK and the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 545, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Arindam Kundu & Sumit Kumar & Nutan Kumar Tomar, 2019. "Option Implied Risk-Neutral Density Estimation: A Robust and Flexible Method," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 705-728, August.
- Marian Micu, 2005. "Extracting expectations from currency option prices: a comparison of methods," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 226, Society for Computational Economics.
- Monteiro, Ana Margarida & Tutuncu, Reha H. & Vicente, Luis N., 2008. "Recovering risk-neutral probability density functions from options prices using cubic splines and ensuring nonnegativity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 525-542, June.
- Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
- Chen, Ren-Raw & Hsieh, Pei-lin & Huang, Jeffrey, 2018. "Crash risk and risk neutral densities," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 162-189.
- Shane Barratt & Jonathan Tuck & Stephen Boyd, 2020. "Convex Optimization Over Risk-Neutral Probabilities," Papers 2003.02878, arXiv.org.
- Salazar Celis, Oliver & Liang, Lingzhi & Lemmens, Damiaan & Tempère, Jacques & Cuyt, Annie, 2015. "Determining and benchmarking risk neutral distributions implied from option prices," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 258(C), pages 372-387.
- Xiaoquan Liu, 2007. "Bid-ask spread, strike prices and risk-neutral densities," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 887-900.
- Halil Ibrahim Aydin & Ahmet Degerli & Pinar Ozlu, 2010. "Recovering Risk-Neutral Densities from Exchange Rate Options: Evidence in Turkey (Kur Opsiyonlarindan Riske Duyarsiz Yogunluk Fonksiyonu Cikarimi: Turkiye Ornegi)," Working Papers 1003, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Manuel Ammann & Alexander Feser, 2019. "Robust Estimation of Risk-Neutral Moments," Working Papers on Finance 1902, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
- Datta, Deepa Dhume & Londono, Juan M. & Ross, Landon J., 2017.
"Generating options-implied probability densities to understand oil market events,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 440-457.
- Deepa Dhume Datta & Juan M. Londono & Landon J. Ross, 2014. "Generating Options-Implied Probability Densities to Understand Oil Market Events," International Finance Discussion Papers 1122, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Daniel Giamouridis, 2005. "Inferring option-implied investors' risk preferences," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 479-488.
More about this item
KeywordsStock market - Germany; Stock options;
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
NEP fieldsThis paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-EEC-2004-01-18 (European Economics)
- NEP-ETS-2004-01-18 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FMK-2004-01-18 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2004-01-18 (Risk Management)
StatisticsAccess and download statistics
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.