IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/11637.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Option Pricing: Real and Risk-Neutral Distributions

Author

Listed:
  • Constantinides, George M.
  • Jackwerth, Jens Carsten
  • Perrakis, Stylianos

Abstract

The central premise of the Black and Scholes [Black, F., Scholes, M. (1973). The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of Political Economy 81, 637–659] and Merton [Merton, R. (1973). Theory of rational option pricing. Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science 4, 141–184] option pricing theory is that there exists a self-financing dynamic trading policy of the stock and risk free accounts that renders the market dynamically complete. This requires that the market be complete and perfect. In this essay, we are concerned with cases in which dynamic trading breaks down either because the market is incomplete or because it is imperfect due to the presence of trading costs, or both. Market incompleteness renders the risk-neutral probability measure non unique and allows us to determine the option price only within a range. Recognition of trading costs requires a refinement in the definition and usage of the concept of a risk-neutral probability measure. Under these market conditions, a replicating dynamic trading policy does not exist. Nevertheless, we are able to impose restrictions on the pricing kernel and derive testable restrictions on the prices of options.We illustrate the theory in a series of market setups, beginning with the single period model, the two-period model and, finally, the general multiperiod model, with or without transaction costs.We also review related empirical results that document widespread violations of these restrictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2007. "Option Pricing: Real and Risk-Neutral Distributions," MPRA Paper 11637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11637
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11637/1/MPRA_paper_11637.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 499-547, April.
    2. Garcia, Rene & Luger, Richard & Renault, Eric, 2003. "Empirical assessment of an intertemporal option pricing model with latent variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 49-83.
    3. Bergman, Yaacov Z & Grundy, Bruce D & Wiener, Zvi, 1996. " General Properties of Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1573-1610, December.
    4. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
    5. Ritchken, Peter H & Kuo, Shyanjaw, 1988. " Option Bounds with Finite Revision Opportunities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 301-308, June.
    6. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
    7. George M. Constantinides, 1979. "Multiperiod Consumption and Investment Behavior with Convex Transactions Costs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(11), pages 1127-1137, November.
    8. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
    9. Harrison, J. Michael & Pliska, Stanley R., 1981. "Martingales and stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 215-260, August.
    10. Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2007. "Option Pricing: Real and Risk-Neutral Distributions," MPRA Paper 11637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. George M. Constantinides & Michal Czerwonko & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Stylianos Perrakis, 2011. "Are Options on Index Futures Profitable for Risk‐Averse Investors? Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1407-1437, August.
    12. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2005. "Can Standard Preferences Explain the Prices of out of the Money S&P 500 Put Options," NBER Working Papers 11861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. George M. Constantinides & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Stylianos Perrakis, 2009. "Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1247-1277, March.
    14. Pedro Santa-Clara & Shu Yan, 2004. "Jump and Volatility Risk and Risk Premia: A New Model and Lessons from S&P 500 Options," NBER Working Papers 10912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-451.
    16. Levy, Haim, 1985. " Upper and Lower Bounds of Put and Call Option Value: Stochastic Dominance Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1197-1217, September.
    17. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    18. Amin, Kaushik I, 1993. " Jump Diffusion Option Valuation in Discrete Time," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1833-1863, December.
    19. Perrakis, Stylianos, 1986. "Option Bounds in Discrete Time: Extensions and the Pricing of the American Put," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(1), pages 119-141, January.
    20. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    21. Ryan, Peter J., 2003. "Progressive option bounds from the sequence of concurrently expiring options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(1), pages 193-223, November.
    22. Stephen A. Ross, 1976. "Options and Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 75-89.
    23. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
    24. Constantinides, George M. & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2002. "Stochastic dominance bounds on derivatives prices in a multiperiod economy with proportional transaction costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1323-1352, July.
    25. Perrakis, Stylianos & Ryan, Peter J, 1984. " Option Pricing Bounds in Discrete Time," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(2), pages 519-525, June.
    26. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
    27. (*), Thaleia Zariphopoulou & George M. Constantinides, 1999. "Bounds on prices of contingent claims in an intertemporal economy with proportional transaction costs and general preferences," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 345-369.
    28. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
    29. Engle, Robert F & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1991. "Semiparametric ARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 345-359, October.
    30. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-1632, December.
    31. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June.
    32. David S. Bates, 2001. "The Market for Crash Risk," NBER Working Papers 8557, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    34. Ritchken, Peter H, 1985. " On Option Pricing Bounds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1219-1233, September.
    35. Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Robert E. Whaley, 2004. "Does Net Buying Pressure Affect the Shape of Implied Volatility Functions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 711-753, April.
    36. Yaacov Z. Bergman & Bruce D. Grundy & Zvi Wiener, "undated". "General Properties of Option Prices (Revision of 11-95) (Reprint 058)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 1-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ben R. Craig & Ernst Glatzer & Joachim G. Keller & Martin Scheicher, 2003. "The forecasting performance of German stock option densities," Working Paper 0312, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Alexandros Kostakis, 2007. "Mind Coskewness: A Performance Measure for Prudent, Long-Term Investors," Discussion Papers 07/07, Department of Economics, University of York.
    3. Daniel Giamouridis, 2005. "Inferring option-implied investors' risk preferences," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 479-488.
    4. M. Benko & M. Fengler & W. Härdle & M. Kopa, 2007. "On extracting information implied in options," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 543-553, December.
    5. Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2007. "Option Pricing: Real and Risk-Neutral Distributions," MPRA Paper 11637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Wael Bahsoun & Pawel Góra & Silvia Mayoral & Manuel Morales, 2006. "Random Dynamics and Finance: Constructing Implied Binomial Trees from a Predetermined Stationary Den," Faculty Working Papers 13/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    7. Bozic, Marin & Newton, John & Thraen, Cameron S. & Gould, Brian W., 2014. "Parametric Bootstrap Tests for Futures Price and Implied Volatility Biases With Application to Rating Dairy Margin Insurance," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170416, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Guenter Franke & James Huang & Richard Stapleton, 2006. "Two-dimensional risk-neutral valuation relationships for the pricing of options," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 213-237, November.
    9. Gustavo Abarca & José Gonzalo Rangel & Guillermo Benavides, 2010. "Exchange Rate Market Expectations and Central Bank Policy: The case of the Mexican Peso-US Dollar from 2005-2009," Working Papers 2010-17, Banco de México.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Option; Pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11637. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.