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Are Options on Index Futures Profitable for Risk‐Averse Investors? Empirical Evidence

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  • GEORGE M. CONSTANTINIDES
  • MICHAL CZERWONKO
  • JENS CARSTEN JACKWERTH
  • STYLIANOS PERRAKIS

Abstract

American options on the S&P 500 index futures that violate the stochastic dominance bounds of Constantinides and Perrakis (2007) from 1983 to 2006 are identified as potentially profitable trades. Call bid prices more frequently violate their upper bound than put bid prices do, while violations of the lower bounds by ask prices are infrequent. In out of sample tests of stochastic dominance, the writing of options that violate the upper bound increases the expected utility of any risk averse investor holding the market and cash, net of transaction costs and bid ask spreads. The results are economically significant and robust.
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Suggested Citation

  • George M. Constantinides & Michal Czerwonko & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Stylianos Perrakis, 2011. "Are Options on Index Futures Profitable for Risk‐Averse Investors? Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1407-1437, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:66:y:2011:i:4:p:1407-1437
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Russell Davidson & Jean-Yves Duclos, 2013. "Testing for Restricted Stochastic Dominance," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 84-125.
    2. Joost Driessen & Pascal Maenhout, 2007. "An Empirical Portfolio Perspective on Option Pricing Anomalies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(4), pages 561-603.
    3. Russell Davidson & Jean-Yves Duclos, 2000. "Statistical Inference for Stochastic Dominance and for the Measurement of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 1435-1464.
    4. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
    5. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1992. "Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 91-113.
    6. George M. Constantinides & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Stylianos Perrakis, 2009. "Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1247-1277, March.
    7. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-1632, December.
    8. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June.
    9. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-451.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. George M. Constantinides & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Stylianos Perrakis, 2009. "Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, pages 1247-1277.
    2. repec:oup:rasset:v:3:y:2013:i:2:p:229-257. is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chatrath, Arjun & Christie-David, Rohan A. & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2015. "Short-term options: Clienteles, market segmentation, and event trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 237-250.
    4. Peter Christoffersen & Mathieu Fournier & Kris Jacobs, 2013. "The Factor Structure in Equity Options," CREATES Research Papers 2013-47, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Perrakis, Stylianos & Boloorforoosh, Ali, 2013. "Valuing catastrophe derivatives under limited diversification: A stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3157-3168.
    6. George M. Constantinides & Lei Lian, 2015. "The Supply and Demand of S&P 500 Put Options," NBER Working Papers 21161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. George M. Constantinides & Michal Czerwonko & Stylianos Perrakis, 2017. "Mispriced Index Option Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 23708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2007. "Option Pricing: Real and Risk-Neutral Distributions," MPRA Paper 11637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Balbás, Alejandro & Balbás, Beatriz & Balbás, Raquel, 2013. "On the inefficiency of Brownian motions and heavier tailed price processes," INDEM - Working Paper Business Economic Series id-13-01, Instituto para el Desarrollo Empresarial (INDEM).
    10. George M. Constantinides & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Alexi Savov, 2013. "The Puzzle of Index Option Returns," Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 229-257.
    11. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2013. "Managing Option Trading Risk with Greeks when Analogy Making Matters," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 160607, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    12. Barras, Laurent & Malkhozov, Aytek, 2016. "Does variance risk have two prices? Evidence from the equity and option markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 79-92.
    13. Laurent Barras & Aytek Malkhozov, 2015. "Does variance risk have two prices? Evidence from the equity and option markets," BIS Working Papers 521, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Michal Czerwonko & Stylianos Perrakis, 2016. "Portfolio Selection with Transaction Costs and Jump-Diffusion Asset Dynamics II: Economic Implications," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-28, December.
    15. Bilson, John F.O. & Kang, Sang Baum & Luo, Hong, 2015. "The term structure of implied dividend yields and expected returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 9-13.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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