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Are options on index futures profitable for risk averse investors? Empirical evidence

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  • Jackwerth, Jens Carsten
  • Constantinides, George M.
  • Czerwonko, Michal
  • Perrakis, Stelios

Abstract

American call and put options on the S&P 500 index futures that violate the stochastic dominance bounds of Constantinides and Perrakis (2007) over 1983-2006 are identified as potentially profitable investment opportunities. Call bid prices more frequently violate their upper bound than put bid prices do, while evidence of underpriced calls and puts over this period is scant. In out-of-sample tests, the inclusion of short positions in such overpriced calls, puts, and, particularly, straddles in the market portfolio is shown to increase the expected utility of any risk averse investor and also increase the Sharpe ratio, net of transaction costs and bid-ask spreads. The results are strongly supportive of mispricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Constantinides, George M. & Czerwonko, Michal & Perrakis, Stelios, 2008. "Are options on index futures profitable for risk averse investors? Empirical evidence," CoFE Discussion Papers 08/08, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cofedp:0808
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shvimer, Yossi & Herbon, Avi, 2020. "Comparative empirical study of binomial call-option pricing methods using S&P 500 index data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. George M. Constantinides & Michal Czerwonko & Stylianos Perrakis, 2017. "Mispriced Index Option Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 23708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Michal Czerwonko & Stylianos Perrakis, 2016. "Portfolio Selection with Transaction Costs and Jump-Diffusion Asset Dynamics II: Economic Implications," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-28, December.
    4. George M. Constantinides & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Alexi Savov, 2013. "The Puzzle of Index Option Returns," Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 229-257.
    5. Chatrath, Arjun & Christie-David, Rohan A. & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2015. "Short-term options: Clienteles, market segmentation, and event trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 237-250.
    6. George M. Constantinides & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Stylianos Perrakis, 2009. "Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1247-1277, March.
    7. Perrakis, Stylianos & Boloorforoosh, Ali, 2013. "Valuing catastrophe derivatives under limited diversification: A stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3157-3168.
    8. Biao Guo & Hai Lin, 2020. "Volatility and jump risk in option returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(11), pages 1767-1792, November.
    9. George M. Constantinides & Lei Lian, 2015. "The Supply and Demand of S&P 500 Put Options," NBER Working Papers 21161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2005. "Option pricing: Real and risk-neutral distributions," CoFE Discussion Papers 05/06, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    11. Peter Christoffersen & Mathieu Fournier & Kris Jacobs, 2018. "The Factor Structure in Equity Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 595-637.
    12. George M. Constantinides & Michal Czerwonko & Stylianos Perrakis, 2020. "Mispriced index option portfolios," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(2), pages 297-330, June.
    13. Horatio Cuesdeanu & Jens Carsten Jackwerth, 2018. "The pricing kernel puzzle: survey and outlook," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 289-329, August.
    14. Balbás, Raquel & Balbás, Beatriz & Balbás, Alejandro, 2013. "On the inefficiency of Brownian motions and heavier tailed price processes," INDEM - Working Paper Business Economic Series id-13-01, Instituto para el Desarrollo Empresarial (INDEM).
    15. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2013. "Managing Option Trading Risk with Greeks when Analogy Making Matters," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 160607, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    16. Barras, Laurent & Malkhozov, Aytek, 2016. "Does variance risk have two prices? Evidence from the equity and option markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 79-92.
    17. Laurent Barras & Aytek Malkhozov, 2015. "Does variance risk have two prices? Evidence from the equity and option markets," BIS Working Papers 521, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Bilson, John F.O. & Kang, Sang Baum & Luo, Hong, 2015. "The term structure of implied dividend yields and expected returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 9-13.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    option mispricing; futures options; derivatives pricing; stochastic dominance; transaction costs; market efficiency;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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