IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cofedp/0808.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are options on index futures profitable for risk averse investors? Empirical evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Jackwerth, Jens Carsten
  • Constantinides, George M.
  • Czerwonko, Michal
  • Perrakis, Stelios

Abstract

American call and put options on the S&P 500 index futures that violate the stochastic dominance bounds of Constantinides and Perrakis (2007) over 1983-2006 are identified as potentially profitable investment opportunities. Call bid prices more frequently violate their upper bound than put bid prices do, while evidence of underpriced calls and puts over this period is scant. In out-of-sample tests, the inclusion of short positions in such overpriced calls, puts, and, particularly, straddles in the market portfolio is shown to increase the expected utility of any risk averse investor and also increase the Sharpe ratio, net of transaction costs and bid-ask spreads. The results are strongly supportive of mispricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Constantinides, George M. & Czerwonko, Michal & Perrakis, Stelios, 2008. "Are options on index futures profitable for risk averse investors? Empirical evidence," CoFE Discussion Papers 08/08, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cofedp:0808
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/32154/1/608955868.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Russell Davidson & Jean-Yves Duclos, 2013. "Testing for Restricted Stochastic Dominance," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 84-125, January.
    2. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
    3. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1992. "Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 91-113.
    4. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. "Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-1632, December.
    5. Santa-Clara, Pedro & Saretto, Alessio, 2009. "Option strategies: Good deals and margin calls," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 391-417, August.
    6. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June.
    7. Russell Davidson & Jean-Yves Duclos, 2000. "Statistical Inference for Stochastic Dominance and for the Measurement of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1435-1464, November.
    8. Joshua D. Coval & Tyler Shumway, 2001. "Expected Option Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 983-1009, June.
    9. Nicolae Garleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Allen M. Poteshman, 2009. "Demand-Based Option Pricing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4259-4299, October.
    10. Oleg Bondarenko, 2003. "Statistical Arbitrage and Securities Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 875-919, July.
    11. George M. Constantinides & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Stylianos Perrakis, 2009. "Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1247-1277.
    12. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
    13. Jobson, J D & Korkie, Bob M, 1981. "Performance Hypothesis Testing with the Sharpe and Treynor Measures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 889-908, September.
    14. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    15. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-451.
    16. Russell Davidson, 2009. "Testing for Restricted Stochastic Dominance: Some Further Results," Review of Economic Analysis, Digital Initiatives at the University of Waterloo Library, vol. 1(1), pages 34-59, September.
    17. Joost Driessen & Pascal Maenhout, 2007. "An Empirical Portfolio Perspective on Option Pricing Anomalies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(4), pages 561-603.
    18. George M. Constantinides, 2005. "Capital Market Equilibrium with Transaction Costs," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 7, pages 207-227, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Constantinides, George M. & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2002. "Stochastic dominance bounds on derivatives prices in a multiperiod economy with proportional transaction costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1323-1352, July.
    20. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    21. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
    22. Antonio E. Bernardo & Olivier Ledoit, 2000. "Gain, Loss, and Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 144-172, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Constantinides, George M. & Lian, Lei, 2021. "The Supply and Demand of S&P 500 Put Options," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 10(1), pages 1-20, April.
    2. George M. Constantinides & Michal Czerwonko & Stylianos Perrakis, 2020. "Mispriced index option portfolios," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(2), pages 297-330, June.
    3. Brendan K. Beare & Juwon Seo, 2022. "Stochastic arbitrage with market index options," Papers 2207.00949, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    4. Chatrath, Arjun & Christie-David, Rohan A. & Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2015. "Short-term options: Clienteles, market segmentation, and event trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 237-250.
    5. Hamed Ghanbari & Michael Oancea & Stylianos Perrakis, 2021. "Shedding light on a dark matter: Jump diffusion and option‐implied investor preferences," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), pages 244-286, March.
    6. George M. Constantinides & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Alexi Savov, 2013. "The Puzzle of Index Option Returns," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 229-257.
    7. Perrakis, Stylianos & Boloorforoosh, Ali, 2013. "Valuing catastrophe derivatives under limited diversification: A stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3157-3168.
    8. Thierry Post & Iňaki Rodríguez Longarela, 2021. "Risk Arbitrage Opportunities for Stock Index Options," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 100-113, January.
    9. Horatio Cuesdeanu & Jens Carsten Jackwerth, 2018. "The pricing kernel puzzle: survey and outlook," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 289-329, August.
    10. Balbás, Alejandro & Balbás, Beatriz & Balbás, Raquel, 2013. "On the inefficiency of Brownian motions and heavier tailed price processes," INDEM - Working Paper Business Economic Series id-13-01, Instituto para el Desarrollo Empresarial (INDEM).
    11. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2013. "Managing Option Trading Risk with Greeks when Analogy Making Matters," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 160607, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    12. Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2005. "Option pricing: Real and risk-neutral distributions," CoFE Discussion Papers 05/06, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    13. Barras, Laurent & Malkhozov, Aytek, 2016. "Does variance risk have two prices? Evidence from the equity and option markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 79-92.
    14. Bilson, John F.O. & Kang, Sang Baum & Luo, Hong, 2015. "The term structure of implied dividend yields and expected returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 9-13.
    15. Shvimer, Yossi & Herbon, Avi, 2020. "Comparative empirical study of binomial call-option pricing methods using S&P 500 index data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    16. Michal Czerwonko & Stylianos Perrakis, 2016. "Portfolio Selection with Transaction Costs and Jump-Diffusion Asset Dynamics II: Economic Implications," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-28, December.
    17. George M. Constantinides & Jens Carsten Jackwerth & Stylianos Perrakis, 2009. "Mispricing of S&P 500 Index Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1247-1277, March.
    18. Biao Guo & Hai Lin, 2020. "Volatility and jump risk in option returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(11), pages 1767-1792, November.
    19. Stylianos Perrakis, 2022. "From innovation to obfuscation: continuous time finance fifty years later," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(3), pages 369-401, September.
    20. Peter Christoffersen & Mathieu Fournier & Kris Jacobs, 2018. "The Factor Structure in Equity Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 595-637.
    21. Kolokolova, Olga & Le Courtois, Olivier & Xu, Xia, 2022. "Is the index efficient? A worldwide tour with stochastic dominance," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    22. Anyfantaki, Sofia & Arvanitis, Stelios & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2021. "Diversification benefits in the cryptocurrency market under mild explosivity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(1), pages 378-393.
    23. Stelios Arvanitis & Thierry Post & Nikolas Topaloglou, 2021. "Stochastic Bounds for Reference Sets in Portfolio Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7737-7754, December.
    24. Armstrong, John & Brigo, Damiano, 2022. "Coherent risk measures alone are ineffective in constraining portfolio losses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    25. Laurent Barras & Aytek Malkhozov, 2015. "Does variance risk have two prices? Evidence from the equity and option markets," BIS Working Papers 521, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. George M. Constantinides & Michal Czerwonko & Stylianos Perrakis, 2020. "Mispriced index option portfolios," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 49(2), pages 297-330, June.
    2. Stylianos Perrakis, 2022. "From innovation to obfuscation: continuous time finance fifty years later," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(3), pages 369-401, September.
    3. Bakshi, Gurdip & Madan, Dilip & Panayotov, George, 2010. "Returns of claims on the upside and the viability of U-shaped pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 130-154, July.
    4. Benzoni, Luca & Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Goldstein, Robert S., 2011. "Explaining asset pricing puzzles associated with the 1987 market crash," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 552-573, September.
    5. Almeida, Caio & Freire, Gustavo, 2022. "Pricing of index options in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 174-205.
    6. Horatio Cuesdeanu & Jens Carsten Jackwerth, 2018. "The pricing kernel puzzle: survey and outlook," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 289-329, August.
    7. Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2005. "Option pricing: Real and risk-neutral distributions," CoFE Discussion Papers 05/06, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    8. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2018. "Crash Sensitivity and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 1059-1100, June.
    9. Christoffersen, Peter & Heston, Steven & Jacobs, Kris, 2010. "Option Anomalies and the Pricing Kernel," Working Papers 11-17, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    10. Santa-Clara, Pedro & Saretto, Alessio, 2009. "Option strategies: Good deals and margin calls," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 391-417, August.
    11. Bates, David S., 2008. "The market for crash risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2291-2321, July.
    12. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    13. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Yarema Okhrin & Weining Wang, 2015. "Uniform Confidence Bands for Pricing Kernels," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 376-413.
    14. Hamed Ghanbari & Michael Oancea & Stylianos Perrakis, 2021. "Shedding light on a dark matter: Jump diffusion and option‐implied investor preferences," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), pages 244-286, March.
    15. Sirio Aramonte & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2022. "Firm-Specific Risk-Neutral Distributions with Options and CDS," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 7018-7033, September.
    16. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2015. "Anchoring Heuristic in Option Pricing," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 207677, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    17. Vladislav Kargin, 2003. "Consistent Estimation of Pricing Kernels from Noisy Price Data," Papers math/0310223, arXiv.org.
    18. Liao, Wen Ju & Sung, Hao-Chang, 2020. "Implied risk aversion and pricing kernel in the FTSE 100 index," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    19. Felix Brinkmann & Olaf Korn, 2018. "Risk-adjusted option-implied moments," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 149-173, July.
    20. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2014. "Anchoring Heuristic in Option Prices," MPRA Paper 66018, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jul 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    option mispricing; futures options; derivatives pricing; stochastic dominance; transaction costs; market efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cofedp:0808. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zfkonde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.