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Citations for "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle"

by Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson

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  1. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2015. "Bootstrap score tests for fractional integration in heteroskedastic ARFIMA models, with an application to price dynamics in commodity spot and futures markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 557-579.
  2. Jean Pisani-Ferry & Xavier Debrun & André Sapir, 2008. "Government Size and Output Volatility; Should We Forsake Automatic Stabilization?," IMF Working Papers 08/122, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Müller, Ulrich K., 2012. "Measuring prior sensitivity and prior informativeness in large Bayesian models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(6), pages 581-597.
  4. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2011. "The changing sensitivity of realized portfolio betas to U.S. output growth: An analysis based on real-time data," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 168-186, May.
  5. Hans KREMERS & Andreas LOESCHEL, . "The Strategic Implications of Setting Border Tax Adjustments," EcoMod2010 259600097, EcoMod.
  6. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
  7. Laurent Callot & Johannes Tang Kristensen, 2015. "Regularized Estimation of Structural Instability in Factor Models: The US Macroeconomy and the Great Moderation," CREATES Research Papers 2015-29, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  8. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2010. "The business cycle and the equity risk premium in real time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-722, October.
  9. Mennuni, Alessandro, 2013. "Labor Force Composition and Aggregate Fluctuations," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 1302, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  10. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2010. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 177-194.
  11. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-459 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.
  13. Baumeister, Christiane & Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2013. "Changes in the effects of monetary policy on disaggregate price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 543-560.
  14. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Working Papers 19469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Tamim Bayoumi & Silvia Sgherri, 2004. "Deconstructing the Art of Central Banking," IMF Working Papers 04/195, International Monetary Fund.
  16. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  17. Vicente Tuesta & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Pau Rabanal, 2009. "Cointegrated TFP Processes and International Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 09/212, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2009. "Volatility Accounting: A Production Perspective on Increased Economic Stability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 671-696, 06.
  19. Fiess, Norbert & Shankar, Rashmi, 2005. "Regime-switching in exchange rate policy and balance sheet effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3653, The World Bank.
  20. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Sarferaz, Samad, 2013. "On the low-frequency relationship between public deficits and inflation," Discussion Papers 12/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  21. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2011. "Lack of consumer confidence and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 225-236, March.
  22. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," NBER Working Papers 14048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2014. "Financial Frictions, Financial Shocks, and Aggregate Volatility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-84, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 18 Mar 2016.
  24. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Heon Kim, 2011. "The Evolution of the Monetary Policy Regimes in the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 1102, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  25. Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Is There a Structural Break in the Equity Premium?," Working Papers 0024, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  26. Claudia M. Buch & Joerg Doepke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Business Cycle Volatility in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 451-479, November.
  27. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Changes in International Business Cycle Affiliations," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 132, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  28. Soloschenko, Max & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Capturing the Interaction of Trend, Cycle, Expectations and Risk Premia in the US Term Structure," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 475, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  29. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina & Keith Sill, 2007. "The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility," Working Papers 07-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  30. Paradiso, Antonio & Kumar, Saten & Lucchetta, Marcella, 2014. "Investigating the US consumer credit determinants using linear and non-linear cointegration techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 20-28.
  31. Bataa, Erdenebat & Wohar, Mark & Vivian, Andrew, 2015. "Changes in the relationship between short-term interest rate, inflation and growth: Evidence from the UK, 1820-2014," MPRA Paper 72422, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Christoph Hanck & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation," Ruhr Economic Papers 0434, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  33. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Prior Elicitation in Multiple Change-point Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/26, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  34. Pancrazi, Roberto, 2013. "How Beneficial was the Great Moderation After All?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1016, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  35. Christopher Reicher & Johannes Utlaut, 2011. "The effect of inflation on real commodity prices," Kiel Working Papers 1704, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  36. Bauwens, Luc & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2012. "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3415-3429.
  37. Berument, Hakan & Froyen, Richard T., 2006. "Monetary policy and long-term US interest rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 737-751, December.
  38. Dong, Wei, 2012. "The role of expenditure switching in the global imbalance adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 237-251.
  39. Anna Pestova, 2015. "Leading Indicators of the Business Cycle: Dynamic Logit Models for OECD Countries and Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 94/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  40. Florin Bilbiie & G. Mueller & A. Meier, 2006. "What Accounts for the Change in U.S Fiscal Policy Transmission ?," Working Papers hal-00515666, HAL.
  41. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16041, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  42. Eggers, Andrew & Ioannides, Yannis M., 2006. "The role of output composition in the stabilization of US output growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 585-595, September.
  43. Toshiaki Watanabe & Hirokuni Uchiyama, 2005. "Structural Change in Japanese Business Fluctuations and Nikkei 225 Stock Index Futures Transactions," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 1(1), pages 19-32, March.
  44. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 4976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. Alina Carare & Ashoka Mody, 2012. "Spillovers of Domestic Shocks: Will They Counteract the ‘Great Moderation’?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 69-97, 04.
  46. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Output Growth and Its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation," Working papers 2012-11, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  47. D'Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico & Surico, Paolo, 2007. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 6594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  48. Balke, Nathan S. & Brown, Stephen P.A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2010. "Oil Price Shocks and U.S. Economic Activity: An International Perspective," Discussion Papers dp-10-37, Resources For the Future.
  49. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, . "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
  50. Luke Hartigan, 2015. "Changes in the Factor Structure of the U.S. Economy: Permanent Breaks or Business Cycle Regimes?," Discussion Papers 2015-17, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  51. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Evolution of Monetary Policy in the US: The Role of Asset Prices," Working papers 2013-20, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
  52. Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2006. "Inflation: do expectations trump the gap?," Working Papers 2006-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  53. Bartosz Mackowiak, 2005. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-059, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  54. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
  55. Kero, Afroditi, 2013. "Banks’ risk taking, financial innovation and macroeconomic risk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 112-124.
  56. Tatom, John, 2011. "Inflation and asset prices," MPRA Paper 34606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  57. Steven Lugauer, 2012. "Estimating the Effect of the Age Distribution on Cyclical Output Volatility Across the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 896-902, November.
  58. Mertens, Karel, 2008. "Deposit rate ceilings and monetary transmission in the US," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1290-1302, October.
  59. Hanck, Christoph & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation," Ruhr Economic Papers 434, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  60. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2007. "Financial Innovations and Macroeconomic Volatility," 2007 Meeting Papers 50, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  61. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2004. "Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry," NBER Working Papers 10384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  62. Jan J.J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Revisiting Useful Approaches to Data-Rich Macroeconomic Forecasting," Working Papers 624, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  63. Georg Strasser, 2011. "The Efficiency of the Global Markets for Final Goods and Productive Capabilities," 2011 Meeting Papers 576, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  64. Chang-Jin Kim University of Washington,, ,Jeremy Piger, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "A Bayesian Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Structural Change," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 259, Society for Computational Economics.
  65. Louis J. Maccini & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Inventories, Fluctuations and Business Cycles. Working paper #4," NCER Working Paper Series 4, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  66. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy, 2002. "Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1189-1211, September.
  67. James B. Bullard & Aarti Singh, 2007. "Worldwide macroeconomic stability and monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2006-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  68. Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "Inattentive Consumers," CEPR Discussion Papers 5053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  69. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  70. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2009. "Markov-switching models with endogenous explanatory variables II: A two-step MLE procedure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 46-55, January.
  71. Steven Trypsteen, 2014. "Cross-Country Interactions, the Great Moderation and the Role of Output Volatility in Growth," Discussion Papers 2014/10, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  72. Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2008. "Has the behavior of inflation and long-term inflation expectations changed?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 17-50.
  73. Cendejas Bueno, José Luis & Castañeda, Juan Enrique & Muñoz, Félix, 2015. "Business cycles and monetary regimes in the U.S. (1960 – 2014): A plea for monetary stability," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2015/05, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
  74. repec:rim:rimwps:17-07 is not listed on IDEAS
  75. Luzzetti, Matthew N. & Neumuller, Seth, 2016. "Learning and the dynamics of consumer unsecured debt and bankruptcies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 22-39.
  76. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 10309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  77. Broer, Tobias & Kero, Afroditi, 2014. "Collateralisation bubbles when investors disagree about risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 10148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  78. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2009. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-57, January.
  79. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina & Keith Sill, 2005. "On the stability of employment growth: a postwar view from the U.S. states," Working Papers 04-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  80. Ulrich Mueller & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability," NBER Working Papers 12671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  81. Luca Benati, 2003. "Evolving Post-World War II U.K. Economic Performance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 171, Society for Computational Economics.
  82. C.S. Bos & S.J. Koopman & M. Ooms, 2007. "Long Memory Modelling of Inflation with Stochastic Variance and Structural Breaks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-099/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  83. Ichiue, Hibiki & Koyama, Kentaro, 2011. "Regime switches in exchange rate volatility and uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1436-1450.
  84. Yoon, Gawon, 2005. "Has the U.S. economy really become less correlated with that of the rest of the world?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 147-158, January.
  85. Timothy Cogley, . "How Fast Can the New Economy Grow? A Bayesian Analysis of the Evolution of Trend Growth," Working Papers 2133301, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
  86. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, 2010. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 715-724, July.
  87. Milani, Fabio, 2014. "Learning and time-varying macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 94-114.
  88. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2005. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Working Papers 05-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  89. Sandberg, Rickard, 2016. "Trends, unit roots, structural changes, and time-varying asymmetries in U.S. macroeconomic data: the Stock and Watson data re-examined," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 699-713.
  90. repec:pit:wpaper:359 is not listed on IDEAS
  91. McNown, Robert & Seip, Knut Lehre, 2011. "Periods and structural breaks in US economic history 1959-2007," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 169-182, March.
  92. Fossati, Sebastian, 2014. "Output Growth and Commodity Prices in Latin America: What Has Changed?," Working Papers 2014-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  93. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R, 2001. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov-Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 989-1013, November.
  94. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew Levin, 2014. "Cyclical changes in firm volatility," DNB Working Papers 408, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  95. Chauvet, Marcelle, 2002. "The Brazilian Business and Growth Cycles," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(1), January.
  96. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  97. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2011. "Realised and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-21, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  98. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(4), pages 667-699, 06.
  99. Smeekes S. & Urbain J.R.Y.J., 2014. "A multivariate invariance principle for modified wild bootstrap methods with an application to unit root testing," Research Memorandum 008, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
  100. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Osborn, D.R. & Sensier, M., 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-28, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  101. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2005. "Declining Volatility in the U.S. Automobile Industry," NBER Working Papers 11596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  102. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  103. Ragna Alstadheim & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2013. "Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation," Working Paper 2013/24, Norges Bank.
  104. Andres Arias & Gary Hansen & Lee Ohanian, 2007. "Why have business cycle fluctuations become less volatile?," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 32(1), pages 43-58, July.
  105. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Takashi Onodera, 2001. "A New Composite Index of Coincident Economic Indicators in Japan: How can we improve the forecast performance? ," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-101, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  106. Hendrickson, Joshua, 2010. "An Overhaul of Fed Doctrine: Nominal Income and the Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 20346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  107. Laibson, David I. & Mollerstrom, Johanna Britta, 2010. "Capital Flows, Consumption Booms and Asset Bubbles: A Behavioural Alternative to the Savings Glut Hypothesis," Scholarly Articles 4686766, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  108. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Evolution of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the US: the Role of Asset Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 226-243, April.
  109. Posch, Olaf, 2011. "Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1589-1606.
  110. Helge Braun & Reinout De Bock & Riccardo DiCecio, 2009. "Supply shocks, demand shocks, and labor market fluctuations," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 155-178.
  111. Nalan Basturk & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Bayesian Forecasting of US Growth using Basic Time Varying Parameter Models and Expectations Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-119/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Sep 2014.
  112. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Working Papers 819, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  113. Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2012. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(01), pages 241-272, April.
  114. Sugita, Katsuhiro, 2006. "Bayesian Analysis of Dynamic Multivariate Models with Multiple Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers 2006-14, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  115. Ricardo Félix & Gabriela Castro & José Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Small Euro Area Economy: How Big Can They Get in Crisis Times?," EcoMod2013 5307, EcoMod.
  116. Xavier Gabaix, 2004. "Power laws and the origins of aggregate fluctuations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 484, Econometric Society.
  117. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00658540 is not listed on IDEAS
  118. H. Peter Boswijk & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2013. "Inference on Co-integration Parameters in Heteroskedastic Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers 13-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  119. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy & Wall, Howard J., 2008. "A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 578-589, November.
  120. Aleksei NETSUNAJEV, 2012. "Reaction to Technology Shocks in Markov-Switchings Structural VARs: Identification via heteroskedasticity," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/13, European University Institute.
  121. Mikael Juselius & Mathias Drehmann, 2015. "Leverage dynamics and the real burden of debt," BIS Working Papers 501, Bank for International Settlements.
  122. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2005. "Interest sensitivity and volatility reductions: cross-section evidence," Working Papers 05-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  123. repec:hal:journl:halshs-01318131 is not listed on IDEAS
  124. Hibiki Ichiue & Kentaro Koyama, 2007. "Regime Switches in Exchange Rate Volatility and Uncovered Interest Parity," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-22, Bank of Japan.
  125. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2006. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," Working Papers 2007_33, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  126. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Papers 0026, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  127. Ryan R. Brady, 2006. "Structural Breaks and Consumer Credit: Is Consumption Smoothing Finally a Reality?," Departmental Working Papers 13, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
  128. Reicher, Christopher Phillip & Utlaut, Johannes Friederich, 2011. "The effect of inflation on real commodity prices," Kiel Working Papers 1704, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  129. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2016. "Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge in a Small Open Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 28., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised May 2016.
  130. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2012. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1950-1970.
  131. Barnett, William A. & Chauvet, Marcelle & Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2016. "Real-time nowcasting of nominal GDP with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 312-324.
  132. OKIMOTO, Tatsuyoshi & SHIMOTSU, Katsumi, 2010. "Decline in the Persistence of Real Exchange Rates : But Not Sufficient for Purchasing Power Parity," Discussion Papers 2010-06, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  133. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Testing for co-integration in vector autoregressions with non-stationary volatility," Discussion Papers 07/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  134. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term Volatility Versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0103, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  135. Stelios Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "On the predictability of time-varying VAR and DSGE models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 635-664, August.
  136. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2005. "The Recent Shift in Term Structure Behavior from a No-Arbitrage Macro-Finance Perspective," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 3, Society for Computational Economics.
  137. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert H. DeFina & Keith Sill, 2003. "Postwar period changes in employment volatility: new evidence from state/industry panel data," Working Papers 03-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  138. Koch, Christoffer, 2014. "Deposit interest rate ceilings as credit supply shifters: bank level evidence on the effects of Regulation Q," Working Papers 1406, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  139. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2016. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Bootstrap Inference in Fractional Time Series Models with Heteroskedasticity of Unknown," Working Papers 1324, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  140. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 481-493, June.
  141. Marc Gronwald, 2012. "Oil and the U.S. Macroeconomy: A Reinvestigation Using Rolling Impulse Responses," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
  142. Miles, William & Vijverberg, Chu-Ping, 2011. "Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-655.
  143. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "Monetary policy flexibility, risk management, and financial disruptions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 242-246, June.
  144. Taylor, Andrew & Shepherd, David & Duncan, Stephen, 2005. "The structure of the Australian growth process: A Bayesian model selection view of Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 628-645, July.
  145. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2003. "Breaks in the variability and co-movement of G-7 economic growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 786, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  146. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2005. "The dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. business cycles," Working Papers 2001-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  147. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
  148. Cho, Sungjun, 2013. "New return anomalies and new-Keynesian ICAPM," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 87-106.
  149. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Nityananda Sarkar, 2015. "The Effect of Inflation on Inflation Uncertainty in the G7 Countries: A Double Threshold GARCH Model," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 7(1), pages 34-50, April.
  150. Pancrazi, Roberto, 2015. "The heterogeneous Great Moderation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 207-228.
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  152. James Feigenbaum & Geng Li, 2010. "A semiparametric characterization of income uncertainty over the life cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  153. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Staff Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
  154. Wiggins, Seth & Etienne, Xiaoli, 2015. "US Natural Gas Price Determination: Fundamentals and the Development of Shale," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205788, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
  155. Marco Cipriani & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2006. "Volatility in International Financial Market Issuance: The Role of the Financial Center," NBER Working Papers 12587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  156. Yongli Zhang, 2010. "Fluctuations of Real Interest Rates and Business Cycles," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 185-208, May.
  157. Irvine, F. Owen & Schuh, Scott, 2005. "Inventory investment and output volatility," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 75-86, January.
  158. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew T. Levin, 2012. "When Did Firms Become More Different? Time-Varying Firm-Specific Volatility in Japan," CAMA Working Papers 2012-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  159. John C. Williams, 2006. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-16.
  160. Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2005. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  161. Yagi, Tomoyuki & Takahashi, Masako, 2015. "Non-linear transition mechanism of production and Japanese development," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 34-47.
  162. Eric Sims & Michael Jason Pries, 2011. "Reallocation and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations," 2011 Meeting Papers 1258, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  164. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressions with Smooth Transition in Variances: The Interaction between U.S. Monetary Policy and the Stock Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1388, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  165. Tatiana Cesaroni & Louis Maccini & Marco Malgarini, 2009. "Business cycle volatility and inventories behavior:new evidence for the Euro Area," ISAE Working Papers 108, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  166. Hanck, Christoph, 2008. "Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 11988, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  167. Ćorić, Bruno & Pugh, Geoff, 2013. "Foreign direct investment and output growth volatility: A worldwide analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 260-271.
  168. Soloschenko, Max & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Trend-Cycle Interactions and the Subprime Crisis: Analysis of US and Canadian Output," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 470, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  169. Sandra Bilek-Steindl, 2011. "On the Change in the Austrian Business Cycle," WIFO Working Papers 384, WIFO.
  170. Alexander Karalis Isaac, 2014. "Higher moments of MSVARs and the business cycle," BCAM Working Papers 1405, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
  171. Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2004. "Testing for Volatility Changes in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 833-839, August.
  172. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2014. "The Number Of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification And Economic Value," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(06), pages 1450040-1-1.
  173. Christophe Boucher, 2003. "Stock Market Valuation : the Role of the Macroeconomic Risk Premium," Finance 0305011, EconWPA.
  174. Peter Tulip, 2005. "Has output become more predictable? changes in Greenbook forecast accuracy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  175. By James Feigenbaum & Geng Li, 2015. "Household income uncertainties over three decades," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 963-986.
  176. Wong, Jian Cheng & Lian, Heng & Cheong, Siew Ann, 2009. "Detecting macroeconomic phases in the Dow Jones Industrial Average time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(21), pages 4635-4645.
  177. Bivin, David G., 2006. "Industry evidence of enhanced production stability since 1984," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 438-448, September.
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  179. Fiess, Norbert & Shankar, Rashmi, 2009. "Determinants of exchange rate regime switching," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 68-98, February.
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  181. Baranowski, Paweł & Kuchta, Zbigniew, 2015. "Changes in nominal rigidities in Poland – a regime switching DSGE perspective," MPRA Paper 70573, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2016.
  182. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2003. "Drifts and volatilities: monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII U.S," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  183. Jorge Andraz & Nélia Norte, 2013. "Output volatility in the OECD: Are the member states becoming less vulnerable to exogenous shocks?," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2013_17, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
  184. Smith, Aaron & Naik, Prasad A. & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2006. "Markov-switching model selection using Kullback-Leibler divergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 553-577, October.
  185. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Wall, Howard J. & Wheeler, Christopher H., 2008. "The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November.
  186. Karapanagiotidis, Paul, 2012. "Improving Bayesian VAR density forecasts through autoregressive Wishart Stochastic Volatility," MPRA Paper 38885, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  187. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
  188. Francesco Nucci & Marianna Riggi, 2011. "Performance pay and shifts in macroeconomic correlations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 800, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  189. Helge Braun, 2006. "(Un)Employment Dynamics: The Case of Monetary Policy Shocks," 2006 Meeting Papers 87, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  190. Bermperoglu, Dimitrios & Pappa, Evi & Vella, Eugenia, 2013. "Spending-based austerity measures and their effects on output and unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 9383, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  191. Stephen G Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2005. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
  192. Robert A Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2001. "Calm after the Storm?: Supply-side contributions to New Zealand’s GDP volatility decline," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/33, New Zealand Treasury.
  193. Enzo Weber & Jürgen Wolters, 2013. "Risk and Policy Shocks on the US Term Structure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(1), pages 101-119, 02.
  194. Benhmad, François, 2013. "Dynamic cyclical comovements between oil prices and US GDP: A wavelet perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 141-151.
  195. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2007. "Testing for unit roots in time series models with non-stationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 919-947, October.
  196. Hendrickson, Joshua R., 2012. "An overhaul of Federal Reserve doctrine: Nominal income and the Great Moderation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 304-317.
  197. Bivin, David G., 2008. "Production stability in a supply-chain environment," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 265-275, July.
  198. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  199. Song, Zhe & Jiang, Yu & Zhang, Zijun, 2014. "Short-term wind speed forecasting with Markov-switching model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 103-112.
  200. Keith Kuester & Goethe University, 2006. "Real Price and Wage Rigidities in a Model with Matching Frictions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 152, Society for Computational Economics.
  201. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  202. Steven Lugauer, 2012. "The Supply of Skills in the Labor Force and Aggregate Output Volatility," Working Papers 005, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
  203. F. Owen Irvine, 2004. "Sales persistence and the reductions in GDP volatility," Working Papers 05-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  204. Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2006. "The trend growth rate of employment : past, present, and future," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 43-85.
  205. Anh Nguyen, 2015. "Financial frictions and the volatility of monetary policy in a DSGE model," Working Papers 75949436, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
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  207. Michail Karoglou & Bruce Morley & Dennis Thomas, 2013. "Risk and Structural Instability in US House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 424-436, April.
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  209. Mahdi Barakchian, S., 2015. "Transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy: A structural cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-26.
  210. Wen Xu, 2016. "Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Stochastic Volatility Using Particle Filters," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(4), pages 39, October.
  211. Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2014. "The transmission of international shocks to the UK. Estimates based on a time-varying factor augmented VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-15.
  212. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2014. "Financial fragility in the Great Moderation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 169-177.
  213. Hyunbae Chun & Jung-Wook Kim & Jason Lee & Randall Morck, 2004. "Patterns of Comovement: The Role of Information Technology in the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 10937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  214. Carboni, Giacomo, 2014. "Term premia implications of macroeconomic regime changes," Working Paper Series 1694, European Central Bank.
  215. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56.
  216. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Planas, Christophe & Rossi, Alessandro, 2016. "Skewness and kurtosis of multivariate Markov-switching processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 153-159.
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  218. Irvine, F. Owen & Schuh, Scott, 2007. "Interest sensitivity and volatility reductions: Cross-section evidence," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1-2), pages 31-42, July.
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  220. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Regional Employment Volatility In Turkey: Causes And Consequences," Working Papers 2015/06, Turkish Economic Association.
  221. Reicher Christopher Phillip & Utlaut Johannes Friederich, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks and real commodity prices," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 35, October.
  222. DeNicco, James P., 2015. "Employment-At-Will Exceptions and jobless recovery," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 245-257.
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  225. Pym Manopimoke, 2016. "The Output Euler Equation and Real Interest Rate Regimes," PIER Discussion Papers 33., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jun 2016.
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  231. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2002. "Inventory investment and output volatility," Working Papers 02-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  232. Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-32.
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  235. Kishor N. Kundan, 2010. "The Superiority of Greenbook Forecasts and the Role of Recessions," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 74, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
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  240. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir & Kostas Mouratidis, 2011. "Real effects of inflation uncertainty in the US," Working Papers 2011002, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
  241. Irvine, F. Owen, 2007. "Sales persistence and the reduction in GDP volatility," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1-2), pages 22-30, July.
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This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.