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Citations for "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle"

by Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson

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  1. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1998. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0059, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  2. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2006. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," NBER Working Papers 11946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Christiane Baumeister & Philip Liu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2012. "Changes in the Effects of Monetary Policy on Disaggregate Price Dynamics," Working Papers 12-13, Bank of Canada.
  4. Berument, Hakan & Froyen, Richard T., 2006. "Monetary policy and long-term US interest rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 737-751, December.
  5. James A. Feigenbaum & Geng Li, 2010. "A semiparametric characterization of income uncertainty over the life cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Xavier Debrun & Jean Pisani-Ferry & Andr� Sapir, 2008. "Government size and output volatility: should we forsake automatic stabilization?," European Economy - Economic Papers 316, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  7. Don H. Kim & Athanasios Orphanides, 2005. "Term structure estimation with survey data on interest rate forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Smith, Aaron D. & Naik, Prasad A. & Tsai, Chih-Ling, 2005. "Markov-Switching Model Selection Using Kullback-Leibler Divergence," Working Papers 11976, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  9. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 10309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Papers 2013:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2014.
  11. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew T. Levin, 2012. "When Did Firms Become More Different? Time-Varying Firm-Specific Volatility in Japan," CAMA Working Papers 2012-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  12. Miles, William & Vijverberg, Chu-Ping, 2011. "Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-655.
  13. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Changes in International Business Cycle Affiliations," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 132, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  14. Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2008. "Inflation: Do Expectations Trump the Gap?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(4), pages 85-116, December.
  15. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," NIPE Working Papers 21/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  16. Nalan Basturk & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Bayesian Forecasting of US Growth using Basic Time Varying Parameter Models and Expectations Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-119/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Sep 2014.
  17. Ricardo Félix & Gabriela Castro & José Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Small Euro Area Economy: How Big Can They Get in Crisis Times?," EcoMod2013 5307, EcoMod.
  18. Lee Ohanian & Andres Arias & Gary Hansen, 2005. "Why have business cycle fluctuations become less volatile?," 2005 Meeting Papers 927, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  19. Owyang, Michael T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Wall, Howard J. & Wheeler, Christopher H., 2008. "The economic performance of cities: A Markov-switching approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 538-550, November.
  20. Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "Inattentive consumers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1761-1800, November.
  21. Pedro Silos & Karsten Jeske & Rajeev Dhawan, 2008. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," 2008 Meeting Papers 877, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  22. Florin O. Bilbiie & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2008. "What Accounts for the Changes in U.S. Fiscal Policy Transmission?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1439-1470, October.
  23. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F. & Tuesta, Vicente, 2011. "Cointegrated TFP processes and international business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 156-171, March.
  24. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2014. "Bootstrap Score Tests for Fractional Integration in Heteroskedastic ARFIMA Models, with an Application to Price Dynamics in Commodity Spot and Futures Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2014-22, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  25. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Working Papers 0021, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  26. Sensier, M. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2001. "Short-term volatility versus long-term growth: evidence in US macroeconomic time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  27. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2014. "The Number Of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification And Economic Value," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(06), pages 1450040-1-1.
  28. Marco Cipriani & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2006. "Volatility in International Financial Market Issuance: The Role of the Financial Center," NBER Working Papers 12587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 4976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Output Growth and its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 728-751, January.
  31. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  32. Ulrich Mueller & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability," NBER Working Papers 12671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "The recent shift in term structure behavior from a no-arbitrage macro-finance perspective," Working Paper Series 2004-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  34. Cesaroni, Tatiana & Maccini, Louis & Malgarini, Marco, 2011. "Business cycle stylized facts and inventory behaviour: New evidence for the Euro area," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 12-24, September.
  35. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1120-54, December.
  36. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2005. "Tracking the source of the decline in GDP volatility: an analysis of the automobile industry," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  37. Xavier Gabaix, 2004. "Power laws and the origins of aggregate fluctuations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 484, Econometric Society.
  38. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2010. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 177-194.
  39. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2007. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in micro volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  40. Carboni, Giacomo, 2014. "Term premia implications of macroeconomic regime changes," Working Paper Series 1694, European Central Bank.
  41. Georg Strasser, 2011. "The Efficiency of the Global Markets for Final Goods and Productive Capabilities," 2011 Meeting Papers 576, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  42. Reicher Christopher Phillip & Utlaut Johannes Friederich, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks and real commodity prices," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 35, October.
  43. OKIMOTO, Tatsuyoshi & SHIMOTSU, Katsumi, 2010. "Decline in the Persistence of Real Exchange Rates : But Not Sufficient for Purchasing Power Parity," Discussion Papers 2010-06, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  44. Anna Pestova, 2015. "Leading Indicators of the Business Cycle: Dynamic Logit Models for OECD Countries and Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 94/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  45. Cover, James P. & Pecorino, Paul, 2005. "The length of US business expansions: When did the break in the data occur?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 452-471, September.
  46. Soloschenko, Max & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Capturing the Interaction of Trend, Cycle, Expectations and Risk Premia in the US Term Structure," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 475, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  47. Lester, Robert & Pries, Michael & Sims, Eric, 2014. "Volatility and welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 17-36.
  48. Geng Li & James Feigenbaum, 2009. "A Nonparametric Characterization of Income Uncertainty over the Lifecycle," 2009 Meeting Papers 464, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  49. William Barnett & Marcelle Chauvetz & Danilo Leiva-Leonx, . "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201313, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
  50. Manjola Tase, 2013. "Sectoral allocation, risk efficiency and the Great Moderation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-73, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  51. Timothy Cogley & Thomas Sargent, . "Drifts and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII US," Working Papers 2133503, Department of Economics, W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University.
  52. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew T. Levin, 2011. "Cyclical Changes in Firm Volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2011-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  53. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2009. "Volatility Accounting: A Production Perspective on Increased Economic Stability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 671-696, 06.
  54. Irvine, F. Owen, 2007. "Sales persistence and the reduction in GDP volatility," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1-2), pages 22-30, July.
  55. Karapanagiotidis, Paul, 2012. "Improving Bayesian VAR density forecasts through autoregressive Wishart Stochastic Volatility," MPRA Paper 38885, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  56. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  57. Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2013. "Assessing the number of components in a normal mixture: an alternative approach," MPRA Paper 50303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  58. Georgios KOURETAS & Mark E. WOHAR, . "The Dynamics of Inflation: A Study of a Large Number of Countries," EcoMod2010 259600097, EcoMod.
  59. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2003. "Testing for Volatility Changes in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 36, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  60. Joakim Westerlund, . "Heteroskedasticity Robust Panel Unit Root tests," Financial Econometics Series 2014_02, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  61. Eggers, Andrew & Ioannides, Yannis M., 2006. "The role of output composition in the stabilization of US output growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 585-595, September.
  62. Taylor, Andrew & Shepherd, David & Duncan, Stephen, 2005. "The structure of the Australian growth process: A Bayesian model selection view of Markov switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 628-645, July.
  63. Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Kliem, Martin & Sarferaz, Samad, 2013. "On the low-frequency relationship between public deficits and inflation," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80000, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  64. Arturo Ormeno, 2008. "Great Moderation debate: should we be worry about using approximated policy functions?," 2008 Meeting Papers 659, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  65. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
  66. John A. Tatom, 2011. "Inflation and Asset Prices," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-26, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
  67. Chang-Jin Kim University of Washington,, ,Jeremy Piger, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "A Bayesian Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Structural Change," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 259, Society for Computational Economics.
  68. William A. Barnett & Marcelle Chauvet & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2014. "Real-Time Nowcasting of Nominal GDP Under Structural Breaks," Working Papers 14-39, Bank of Canada.
  69. Hendrickson, Joshua, 2010. "An Overhaul of Fed Doctrine: Nominal Income and the Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 20346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  70. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2003. "Breaks in the variability and co-movement of G-7 economic growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 786, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  71. Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones & Marcelle Chauvet, 2013. "Nonlinear relationship between permanent and transitory components of monetary aggregates and the economy," Working Papers 2013-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  72. Sean D. Campbell, 2004. "Macroeconomic volatility, predictability and uncertainty in the Great Moderation: evidence from the survey of professional forecasters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  73. Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2006. "The trend growth rate of employment : past, present, and future," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 43-85.
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  75. Sandra Bilek-Steindl, 2012. "On the Change in the Austrian Business Cycle," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(1), pages 1-18.
  76. Jorge Andraz & Nélia Norte, 2013. "Output volatility in the OECD: Are the member states becoming less vulnerable to exogenous shocks?," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2013_17, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
  77. Olaf Posch, 2008. "Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation," CREATES Research Papers 2008-04, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  78. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2006. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," Working Papers 2007_33, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  79. Charles S. Bos & Siem Jan Koopman, 2010. "Models with Time-varying Mean and Variance: A Robust Analysis of U.S. Industrial Production," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-017/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  80. Fabio Milani, 2007. "Learning and Time-Varying Macroeconomic Volatility," Working Papers 070802, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  81. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56.
  82. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2002. "Inventory investment and output volatility," Working Papers 02-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  83. John C. Williams, 2005. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 53-81.
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  85. Netsunajev, Aleksei, 2013. "Reaction to technology shocks in Markov-switching structural VARs: Identification via heteroskedasticity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 51-62.
  86. Kuester, Keith, 2007. "Real price and wage rigidities in a model with matching frictions," Working Paper Series 0720, European Central Bank.
  87. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger & Richard Startz, 2005. "The dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. business cycles," Working Papers 2001-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  88. Pancrazi, Roberto, 2013. "How Beneficial was the Great Moderation After All?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1016, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  89. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2007. "The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility," Working Papers 07-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  90. Xu, Ke-Li, 2012. "Robustifying multivariate trend tests to nonstationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 147-154.
  91. Wei Dong, 2010. "The Role of Expenditure Switching in the Global Imbalance Adjustment," Working Papers 10-16, Bank of Canada.
  92. Christoph Hanck & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation," Ruhr Economic Papers 0434, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  93. Song, Zhe & Jiang, Yu & Zhang, Zijun, 2014. "Short-term wind speed forecasting with Markov-switching model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 103-112.
  94. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Staff Reports 327, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  95. Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Stephen M. Miller & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Evolution of Monetary Policy in the US: The Role of Asset Prices," Working Papers 2014-459, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  96. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2006. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Economics Working Papers 1041, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2007.
  97. Bartosz Mackowiak, 2005. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-059, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  98. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Heon Kim, 2011. "The Evolution of the Monetary Policy Regimes in the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 1102, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  99. Ragna Alstadheim & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2013. "Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markow-Switching Structural Investigation," Working Papers 0018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  100. Pancrazi, Roberto, 2015. "The heterogeneous Great Moderation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 207-228.
  101. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2002. "The cyclical behavior of state employment during the postwar period," Working Papers 02-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  102. H. Peter Boswijk & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2013. "Inference on Co-integration Parameters in Heteroskedastic Vector Autoregressions," Discussion Papers 13-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  103. Chengsi Zhang & Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: from Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 78, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
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  105. C.S. Bos & S.J. Koopman & M. Ooms, 2007. "Long Memory Modelling of Inflation with Stochastic Variance and Structural Breaks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-099/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  106. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00658540 is not listed on IDEAS
  107. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2003. "Postwar period changes in employment volatility: new evidence from state/industry panel data," Working Papers 03-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  108. Helge Braun & Reinout De Bock & Riccardo DiCecio, 2007. "Supply shocks, demand shocks, and labor market fluctuations," Working Papers 2007-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  109. Toshiaki Watanabe & Hirokuni Uchiyama, 2005. "Structural Change in Japanese Business Fluctuations and Nikkei 225 Stock Index Futures Transactions," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 1(1), pages 19-32, March.
  110. Hanck, Christoph, 2008. "Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 11988, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  111. Bermperoglu, Dimitrios & Pappa, Evi & Vella, Eugenia, 2013. "Spending-based austerity measures and their effects on output and unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 9383, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  112. repec:dgr:uvatin:20130187 is not listed on IDEAS
  113. Paradiso, Antonio & Kumar, Saten & Lucchetta, Marcella, 2014. "Investigating the US consumer credit determinants using linear and non-linear cointegration techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 20-28.
  114. Mertens, Karel, 2008. "Deposit rate ceilings and monetary transmission in the US," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1290-1302, October.
  115. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2014. "Does the Great Recession imply the end of the Great Moderation? International evidence," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-21, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  116. Koch, Christoffer, 2014. "Deposit interest rate ceilings as credit supply shifters: bank level evidence on the effects of Regulation Q," Working Papers 1406, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  117. Hibiki Ichiue & Kentaro Koyama, 2007. "Regime Switches in Exchange Rate Volatility and Uncovered Interest Parity," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-22, Bank of Japan.
  118. M. V. Cacdac Warnock & Francis E. Warnock, 2000. "The declining volatility of U.S. employment: was Arthur Burns right?," International Finance Discussion Papers 677, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  119. Yongli Zhang, 2010. "Fluctuations of Real Interest Rates and Business Cycles," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 185-208, May.
  120. Daniel J. Vine & Valerie A. Ramey, 2006. "Declining Volatility in the U.S. Automobile Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1876-1889, December.
  121. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Regional Employment Volatility In Turkey: Causes And Consequences," Working Papers 2015/06, Turkish Economic Association.
  122. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Prior Elicitation In Multiple Change-Point Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 751-772, 08.
  123. Alexander Karalis Isaac, 2014. "Higher moments of MSVARs and the business cycle," BCAM Working Papers 1405, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
  124. Cogley, Timothy, 2005. "How fast can the new economy grow? A Bayesian analysis of the evolution of trend growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 179-207, June.
  125. Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-32.
  126. Jermann, Urban & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2006. "Financial Innovations and Macroeconomic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 5727, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  127. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2010. "The business cycle and the equity risk premium in real time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-722, October.
  128. Balke, Nathan S. & Brown, Stephen P.A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2010. "Oil Price Shocks and U.S. Economic Activity: An International Perspective," Discussion Papers dp-10-37, Resources For the Future.
  129. Laurent Callot & Johannes Tang Kristensen, 2015. "Regularized Estimation of Structural Instability in Factor Models: The US Macroeconomy and the Great Moderation," CREATES Research Papers 2015-29, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  130. Christophe Boucher, 2003. "Stock Market Valuation : the Role of the Macroeconomic Risk Premium," Finance 0305011, EconWPA.
  131. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressions with Smooth Transition in Variances: The Interaction between U.S. Monetary Policy and the Stock Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1388, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  132. Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2008. "Has the behavior of inflation and long-term inflation expectations changed?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 17-50.
  133. Irvine, F. Owen & Schuh, Scott, 2007. "Interest sensitivity and volatility reductions: Cross-section evidence," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1-2), pages 31-42, July.
  134. Hyunbae Chun & Jung-Wook Kim & Jason Lee & Randall Morck, 2004. "Patterns of Comovement: The Role of Information Technology in the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 10937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  135. Francesco Nucci & Marianna Riggi, 2011. "Performance pay and shifts in macroeconomic correlations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 800, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  136. BAUWENS, Luc & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen VK, . "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," CORE Discussion Papers RP 2403, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  137. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina & Keith Sill, 2005. "On the stability of employment growth: a postwar view from the U.S. states," Working Papers 04-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  138. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
  139. Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Is There a Structural Break in the Equity Premium?," Working Papers 0024, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  140. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2011. "Lack of consumer confidence and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 225-236, March.
  141. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  142. Steven Lugauer, 2012. "The Supply of Skills in the Labor Force and Aggregate Output Volatility," Working Papers 005, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
  143. Bivin, David G., 2008. "Production stability in a supply-chain environment," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 265-275, July.
  144. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Testing for co-integration in vector autoregressions with non-stationary volatility," Discussion Papers 07/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  145. Fossati, Sebastian, 2014. "Output Growth and Commodity Prices in Latin America: What Has Changed?," Working Papers 2014-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  146. Michail Karoglou & Bruce Morley & Dennis Thomas, 2013. "Risk and Structural Instability in US House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 424-436, April.
  147. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in nonstationary environments: What works and what doesn't in reduced-form and structural models," Economics Working Papers 1476, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  148. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  149. Christopher Reicher & Johannes Utlaut, 2011. "The effect of inflation on real commodity prices," Kiel Working Papers 1704, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  150. Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Paolo Surico, 2005. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Macroeconomics 0510024, EconWPA.
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  165. Fiess, Norbert & Shankar, Rashmi, 2009. "Determinants of exchange rate regime switching," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 68-98, February.
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  167. McNown, Robert & Seip, Knut Lehre, 2011. "Periods and structural breaks in US economic history 1959-2007," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 169-182, March.
  168. Broer, Tobias & Kero, Afroditi, 2014. "Collateralisation bubbles when investors disagree about risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 10148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  175. Steven Trypsteen, 2014. "Cross-Country Interactions, the Great Moderation and the Role of Output Volatility in Growth," Discussion Papers 2014/10, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  176. Nucci, Francesco & Riggi, Marianna, 2013. "Performance pay and changes in U.S. labor market dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2796-2813.
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  186. Mennuni, Alessandro, 2013. "Labor Force Composition and Aggregate Fluctuations," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 1302, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
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  188. James B. Bullard & Aarti Singh, 2007. "Worldwide macroeconomic stability and monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2006-040, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  189. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2007. "Testing for unit roots in time series models with non-stationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 919-947, October.
  190. Yoon, Gawon, 2005. "Has the U.S. economy really become less correlated with that of the rest of the world?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 147-158, January.
  191. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2005. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Working Papers 05-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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  196. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2014. "Financial fragility in the Great Moderation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 169-177.
  197. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China’s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  198. Ichiue, Hibiki & Koyama, Kentaro, 2011. "Regime switches in exchange rate volatility and uncovered interest parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1436-1450.
  199. Steven Lugauer, 2012. "Estimating the Effect of the Age Distribution on Cyclical Output Volatility Across the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 896-902, November.
  200. Sugita, Katsuhiro, 2006. "Bayesian Analysis of Dynamic Multivariate Models with Multiple Structural Breaks," Discussion Papers 2006-14, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  201. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2007. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  202. Louis J. Maccini & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Inventories, Fluctuations and Business Cycles. Working paper #4," NCER Working Paper Series 4, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  203. Czudaj, Robert & Hanck, Christoph, 2013. "Nonstationary-Volatility Robust Panel Unit Root Tests and the Great Moderation," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79734, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  204. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2005. "Interest sensitivity and volatility reductions: cross-section evidence," Working Papers 05-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  205. Robert Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2003. "Calm after the storm? Supply-side contributions to New Zealand's GDP volatility decline," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 217-243.
  206. Grydaki, Maria & Bezemer, Dirk, 2013. "The role of credit in the Great Moderation: A multivariate GARCH approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4626.
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