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Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation

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Cited by:

  1. repec:lan:wpaper:2594 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Balaev, Alexey, 2014. "The copula based on multivariate t-distribution with vector of degrees of freedom," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 90-110.
  3. Nieto, María Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2008. "Measuring financial risk : comparison of alternative procedures to estimate VaR and ES," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws087326, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  4. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2001. "Gram-Charlier densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1457-1483, October.
  5. Krüger, Fabian & Nolte, Ingmar, 2016. "Disagreement versus uncertainty: Evidence from distribution forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 172-186.
  6. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:53-69 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Min, Aleksey & Czado, Claudia, 2014. "SCOMDY models based on pair-copula constructions with application to exchange rates," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 523-535.
  8. Yi, Yanping & Feng, Xingdong & Huang, Zhuo, 2014. "Estimation of extreme value-at-risk: An EVT approach for quantile GARCH model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 378-381.
  9. Kerman, Sean C. & McDonald, James B., 2013. "Skewness–kurtosis bounds for the skewed generalized T and related distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(9), pages 2129-2134.
  10. Chen, Hua & MacMinn, Richard & Sun, Tao, 2015. "Multi-population mortality models: A factor copula approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 135-146.
  11. Panayiotis Theodossiou, 1998. "Financial Data and the Skewed Generalized T Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-1), pages 1650-1661, December.
  12. Christodoulakis, George A., 2007. "Common volatility and correlation clustering in asset returns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(3), pages 1263-1284, November.
  13. Jonas Dovern & Hans Manner, 2018. "Order Invariant Tests for Proper Calibration of Multivariate Density Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 7023, CESifo Group Munich.
  14. Christophe Ley, 2014. "Flexible Modelling in Statistics: Past, present and Future," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-42, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  15. Martin Iseringhausen, 2018. "The Time-Varying Asymmetry Of Exchange Rate Returns: A Stochastic Volatility – Stochastic Skewness Model," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 18/944, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  16. Knyazev, Alexander & Lepekhin, Oleg & Shemyakin, Arkady, 2016. "Joint distribution of stock indices: Methodological aspects of construction and selection of copula models," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 42, pages 30-53.
  17. Dominique Guégan & Florian Ielpo, 2008. "Flexible time series models for subjective distribution estimation with monetary policy in view," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 51(1), pages 79-103.
  18. Ahmed, Mansur & Goodwin, Barry, 2015. "Copula-Based Modeling of Dependence Structure among International Food Grain Markets," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 206059, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
  19. Eric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, 2006. "Optimal Portfolio Allocation under Higher Moments," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(1), pages 29-55.
  20. Xing Yu, 2012. "The optimal portfolio model based on multivariate t distribution with linear weighted sum method," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 044-047.
  21. Degiannakis, Stavros & Potamia, Artemis, 2017. "Multiple-days-ahead value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasting for stock indices, commodities and exchange rates: Inter-day versus intra-day data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 176-190.
  22. Anne Opschoor & Dick van Dijk & Michel van der Wel, 2014. "Improving Density Forecasts and Value-at-Risk Estimates by Combining Densities," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-090/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  23. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Volatility persistence in crude oil markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 729-742.
  24. Babsiri, Mohamed El & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2001. "Contemporaneous asymmetry in GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 257-294, April.
  25. Cerrato, Mario & Crosby, John & Kim, Minjoo & Zhao, Yang, 2014. "Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Portfolio Value-at-Risk with Dynamic Copulas," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-25, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  26. ROCKINGER, Michael & JONDEAU, Eric, 2000. "Conditional Volatility, Skewness, and Kurtosis : Existence and Persistence," Les Cahiers de Recherche 710, HEC Paris.
  27. RENGIFO, Erick & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2004. "Dynamic optimal portfolio selection in a VaR framework," CORE Discussion Papers 2004057, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  28. Joëts, Marc, 2014. "Energy price transmissions during extreme movements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 392-399.
  29. Shaun Bond & Stephen Satchell, 2006. "Asymmetry and downside risk in foreign exchange markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-332.
  30. Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 1997. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 808-817, December.
  31. James B. McDonald & Hieu Nguyen, 2012. "Heteroskedasticity and Distributional Assumptions in the Censored Regression Model," BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory Working Paper Series 2012-09, Brigham Young University, Department of Economics, BYU Macroeconomics and Computational Laboratory.
  32. Xiao Jing Cai & Shuairu Tian & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2017. "Stock Market Integration in China: Evidence from the Asymmetric DCC Model and Copula Approach," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 1-10, March.
  33. repec:eee:ememar:v:34:y:2018:i:c:p:42-63 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. repec:eee:eneeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:523-534 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. Boleslaw Borkowski & Monika Krawiec & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2013. "Modeling and Estimating Volatility of Options on Standard & Poor’s 500 Index," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  36. Dovern, Jonas & Manner, Hans, 2016. "Robust Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145547, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  37. Stavros Degiannakis & Pamela Dent & Christos Floros, 2014. "A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Forecasting Multi-period Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Using the FIGARCH-skT Specification," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(1), pages 71-102, January.
  38. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 6-16, March.
  39. Carluccio Bianchi & Maria Elena De Giuli & Dean Fantazzini & Mario Maggi, 2011. "Small sample properties of copula-GARCH modelling: a Monte Carlo study," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(21), pages 1587-1597.
  40. Yi-Ting Chen, 2002. "On the Robustness of Ljung-Box and McLeod-Li Q Tests: A Simulation Study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(17), pages 1-10.
  41. Li, Xiao-Ming & Rose, Lawrence C., 2009. "The tail risk of emerging stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 242-256, December.
  42. Peter Christoffersen, 2004. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 84-108.
  43. Carlos Velasco & Xuexin Wang, 2015. "A Joint Portmanteau Test For Conditional Mean And Variance Time-Series Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 39-60, January.
  44. Bartels, Mariana & Ziegelmann, Flavio A., 2016. "Market risk forecasting for high dimensional portfolios via factor copulas with GAS dynamics," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 66-79.
  45. Turan G. Bali, 2007. "An Extreme Value Approach to Estimating Interest-Rate Volatility: Pricing Implications for Interest-Rate Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(2), pages 323-339, February.
  46. Bu, Ruijun & Jawadi, Fredj & Li, Yuyi, 2017. "An empirical comparison of transformed diffusion models for VIX and VIX futures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 116-127.
  47. Attiya Y. Javid & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2008. "Test of Multi-moment Capital Asset Pricing Model: Evidence from Karachi Stock Exchange," PIDE-Working Papers 2008:49, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
  48. repec:spr:stmapp:v:27:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10260-017-0404-0 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. repec:wyi:journl:002081 is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Henri Bertholon & Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2006. "Pricing and Inference with Mixtures of Conditionally Normal Processes," Working Papers 2006-28, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  51. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  52. Christodoulakis, George A., 2005. "Financial forecasts in the presence of asymmetric loss aversion, skewness and excess kurtosis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 227-233, December.
  53. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Eric Girardin, 2013. "China's Monetary Policy Communication: Money Markets not only Listen, They also Understand," Working Papers 022013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  54. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2000. "Exchange Rate Returns Standardized by Realized Volatility are (Nearly) Gaussian," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 4(3-4), pages 159-179, September.
  55. C. James Hueng & Ruey Yau, 2006. "Investor preferences and portfolio selection: is diversification an appropriate strategy?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 255-271.
  56. Jouchi Nakajima & Yasuhiro Omori, 2010. "Stochastic Volatility Model with Leverage and Asymmetrically Heavy-Tailed Error Using GH Skew Student's t-Distribution Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-738, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  57. Gabriela de Raaij & Burkhard Raunig, 2002. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with an Application to Stock Market Returns," Working Papers 59, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  58. Yun, Jaeho & Moon, Hyejung, 2014. "Measuring systemic risk in the Korean banking sector via dynamic conditional correlation models," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 94-114.
  59. Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Minjoo Kim & Yang Zhao, 2015. "Correlated Defaults of UK Banks: Dynamics and Asymmetries," Working Papers 2015_24, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  60. Pierre Giot & Sébastien Laurent, 2003. "Value-at-risk for long and short trading positions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 641-663.
  61. Gao, Chun-Ting & Zhou, Xiao-Hua, 2016. "Forecasting VaR and ES using dynamic conditional score models and skew Student distribution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 216-223.
  62. Sancetta, A., 2005. "Forecasting Distributions with Experts Advice," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0517, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  63. Granger, Clive W.J. & Teräsvirta, Timo & Patton, Andrew J., 2002. "Common factors in conditional distributions," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 515, Stockholm School of Economics.
  64. Ergun A. Tolga & Jun Jongbyung, 2010. "Conditional Skewness, Kurtosis, and Density Specification Testing: Moment-Based versus Nonparametric Tests," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 1-21, September.
  65. Douch, Mohamed & Farooq, Omar & Bouaddi, Mohammed, 2015. "Stock price synchronicity and tails of return distribution," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-11.
  66. Lambert, Philippe & Laurent, Sébastien & Veredas, David, 2012. "Testing conditional asymmetry: A residual-based approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1229-1247.
  67. Beine, Michel & Laurent, Sébastien & Palm, Franz C., 2009. "Central bank FOREX interventions assessed using realized moments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 112-127, February.
  68. Nelson, Daniel B., 1996. "Asymptotic filtering theory for multivariate ARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 1-47.
  69. Changqing Luo & Mengzhen Li & Zisheng Ouyang, 2016. "An Empirical Study on the Correlation Structure of Credit Spreads based on the Dynamic and Pair Copula Functions," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 284-303, August.
  70. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk and dependence structure between oil and stock markets using a variational mode decomposition-based copula method," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 258-279.
  71. Peter Christoffersen & Vihang Errunza & Kris Jacobs & Hugues Langlois, 2012. "Is the Potential for International Diversification Disappearing? A Dynamic Copula Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3711-3751.
  72. Lars Forsberg & Anders Eriksson, 2004. "The Mean Variance Mixing GARCH (1,1) model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 323, Econometric Society.
  73. Changli He & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2008. "Parameterizing Unconditional Skewness in Models for Financial Time Series," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 6(2), pages 208-230, Spring.
  74. Juan Carlos Escanciano & Zaichao Du, 2015. "Backtesting Expected Shortfall: Accounting for Tail Risk," Caepr Working Papers 2015-001, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  75. Carlos Escanciano, J., 2008. "Joint and marginal specification tests for conditional mean and variance models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 74-87, March.
  76. Ané, Thierry & Ureche-Rangau, Loredana & Gambet, Jean-Benoît & Bouverot, Julien, 2008. "Robust outlier detection for Asia-Pacific stock index returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 326-343, October.
  77. Kai-Li Wang & Christopher Fawson & Christopher B. Barrett & James B. McDonald, 2001. "A flexible parametric GARCH model with an application to exchange rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 521-536.
  78. Ergün, A. Tolga & Jun, Jongbyung, 2010. "Time-varying higher-order conditional moments and forecasting intraday VaR and Expected Shortfall," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 264-272, August.
  79. De Genaro, Alan, 2016. "Systematic multi-period stress scenarios with an application to CCP risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 119-134.
  80. repec:ipg:wpaper:28 is not listed on IDEAS
  81. Miazhynskaia, Tatiana & Fruhwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Dorffner, Georg, 2006. "Bayesian testing for non-linearity in volatility modeling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 2029-2042, December.
  82. Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard & Hwang, Bruce B.K. & McAleer, Michael, 2012. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk using nonlinear regression quantiles and the intra-day range," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 557-574.
  83. Bertrand Candelon & Marc Joëts & Sessi Tokpavi, 2012. "Testing for crude oil markets globalization during extreme price movements," Post-Print hal-01411687, HAL.
  84. Olivia Andreea Baciu, 2015. "Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions: Empirical Evidence on Bucharest Stock Exchange," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 7(1), pages 007-018, June.
  85. Matteo Grigoletto & Francesco Lisi, 2011. "Practical implications of higher moments in risk management," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 20(4), pages 487-506, November.
  86. Nadarajah, Saralees & Chan, Stephen & Afuecheta, Emmanuel, 2013. "On the characteristic function for asymmetric Student t distributions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 271-274.
  87. CORONEO, Laura & VEREDAS, David, 2006. "Intradaily seasonality of returns distribution. A quantile regression approach and intradaily VaR estimation," CORE Discussion Papers 2006077, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  88. Abdou Kâ Diongue & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Estimation of k-factor GIGARCH process : a Monte Carlo study," Post-Print halshs-00235179, HAL.
  89. Rockinger, M. & Jondeau, E., 2001. "Conditional Dependency of Financial Series: An Application of Copulas," Working papers 82, Banque de France.
  90. repec:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:53-68 is not listed on IDEAS
  91. Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 1996. "Exact Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Observation-Driven Econometric Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  92. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Conditional volatility, skewness, and kurtosis: existence, persistence, and comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1699-1737, August.
  93. Wu, Shue-Jen & Lee, Wei-Ming, 2015. "Intertemporal risk–return relationships in bull and bear markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 308-325.
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  104. Yongmiao Hong & Haitao Li & Feng Zhao, 2013. "Can the Random Walk Model be Beaten in Out-of-Sample Density Forecasts? Evidence from Intraday Forei," WISE Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
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  113. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Ali, Sajid & Ameer, Saba, 2016. "Interdependence between Greece and other European stock markets: A comparison of wavelet and VMD copula, and the portfolio implications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 457(C), pages 8-33.
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  129. Du, Limin & He, Yanan, 2015. "Extreme risk spillovers between crude oil and stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 455-465.
  130. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "Empirical Performance of GARCH Models with Heavy-tailed Innovations," EconStor Preprints 167626, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
  131. Dovern, Jonas & Manner, Hans, 2016. "Order Invariant Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts," Working Papers 0608, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  132. Huang, Wen & Huang, Zhuo & Matei, Marius & Wang, Tianyi, 2012. "Price Volatility Forecast for Agricultural Commodity Futures: The Role of High Frequency Data," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 83-103, December.
  133. He, Shanshan & Wang, Yudong, 2017. "Revisiting the multifractality in stock returns and its modeling implications," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 11-20.
  134. Krenar AVDULAJ & Jozef BARUNIK, 2013. "Can We Still Benefit from International Diversification? The Case of the Czech and German Stock Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(5), pages 425-442, November.
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  137. Caporin, Massimiliano & Rossi, Eduardo & Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, 2017. "Chasing volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 122-145.
  138. Abdou Kâ Diongue & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Estimation of k-factor GIGARCH process : a Monte Carlo study," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00235179, HAL.
  139. Oh, Dong Hwan & Patton, Andrew J., 2015. "Modelling Dependence in High Dimensions with Factor Copulas," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  140. Duran-Vazquez, Rocio & Lorenzo-Valdes, Arturo & Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2013. "Un modelo GARCH con asimetria condicional autorregresiva para modelar series de tiempo: Una aplicacion para los rendimientos del Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones de la BMV
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