IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jfinec/v145y2022i1p129-153.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multivariate crash risk

Author

Listed:
  • Chabi-Yo, Fousseni
  • Huggenberger, Markus
  • Weigert, Florian

Abstract

This paper investigates whether multivariate crash risk (MCRASH), defined as exposure to extreme realizations of multiple systematic factors, is priced in the cross-section of expected stock returns. We derive an extended linear model with a positive premium for MCRASH, and we empirically confirm that stocks with high MCRASH earn significantly higher future returns than stocks with low MCRASH. The premium is not explained by linear factor exposures, alternative downside risk measures, or stock characteristics. Extending market-based definitions of crash risk to other well-established factors helps to determine the cross-section of expected stock returns without further expanding the factor zoo.

Suggested Citation

  • Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Huggenberger, Markus & Weigert, Florian, 2022. "Multivariate crash risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 129-153.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:145:y:2022:i:1:p:129-153
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.07.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X21003445
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.07.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Schneider & Christian Wagner & Josef Zechner, 2020. "Low‐Risk Anomalies?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(5), pages 2673-2718, October.
    2. Basu, Sanjoy, 1983. "The relationship between earnings' yield, market value and return for NYSE common stocks : Further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 129-156, June.
    3. Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2018. "Momentum and crash sensitivity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 77-81.
    4. Bryan Kelly & Hao Jiang, 2014. "Editor's Choice Tail Risk and Asset Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(10), pages 2841-2871.
    5. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    6. Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 130-168.
    7. Drees, Holger & Huang, Xin, 1998. "Best Attainable Rates of Convergence for Estimators of the Stable Tail Dependence Function," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 25-47, January.
    8. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    9. Francisco Barillas & Jay Shanken, 2018. "Comparing Asset Pricing Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(2), pages 715-754, April.
    10. Frazzini, Andrea & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2014. "Betting against beta," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 1-25.
    11. Yaron Levi & Ivo Welch & Andrew Karolyi, 2020. "Symmetric and Asymmetric Market Betas and Downside Risk [Downside risk]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2772-2795.
    12. Agarwal, Vikas & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2017. "Tail risk in hedge funds: A unique view from portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 610-636.
    13. Lettau, Martin & Maggiori, Matteo & Weber, Michael, 2014. "Conditional risk premia in currency markets and other asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 197-225.
    14. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    15. Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
    16. Fousseni Chabi-Yo, 2012. "Pricing Kernels with Stochastic Skewness and Volatility Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 624-640, March.
    17. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    18. Peter Christoffersen & Vihang Errunza & Kris Jacobs & Hugues Langlois, 2012. "Is the Potential for International Diversification Disappearing? A Dynamic Copula Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3711-3751.
    19. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    20. Galsband, Victoria, 2012. "Downside risk of international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2379-2388.
    21. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    22. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    23. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2020. "Replicating Anomalies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2019-2133.
    24. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    25. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    26. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    27. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    28. Christian Meine & Hendrik Supper & Gregor N. F. Weiß, 2016. "Is Tail Risk Priced in Credit Default Swap Premia?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 287-336.
    29. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2018. "Crash Sensitivity and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 1059-1100, June.
    30. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, June.
    31. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    32. Ser-Huang Poon, 2004. "Extreme Value Dependence in Financial Markets: Diagnostics, Models, and Financial Implications," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 581-610.
    33. Atilgan, Yigit & Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk, 2020. "Left-tail momentum: Underreaction to bad news, costly arbitrage and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 725-753.
    34. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May.
    35. Schmid, Friedrich & Schmidt, Rafael, 2007. "Multivariate conditional versions of Spearman's rho and related measures of tail dependence," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 98(6), pages 1123-1140, July.
    36. Jang, Jeewon & Kang, Jangkoo, 2019. "Probability of price crashes, rational speculative bubbles, and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 222-247.
    37. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-451.
    38. Antonio Diez De Los Rios & René Garcia, 2011. "Assessing and valuing the nonlinear structure of hedge fund returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 193-212, March.
    39. Dhaene, J. & Denuit, M. & Goovaerts, M. J. & Kaas, R. & Vyncke, D., 2002. "The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: theory," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 3-33, August.
    40. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    41. Kiriliouk, Anna & Segers, Johan & Tafakori, Laleh, 2018. "An estimator of the stable tail dependence function based on the empirical beta copula," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2018029, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    42. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    43. Dhaene, J. & Denuit, M. & Goovaerts, M. J. & Kaas, R. & Vyncke, D., 2002. "The concept of comonotonicity in actuarial science and finance: applications," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 133-161, October.
    44. Christoffersen, Peter & Langlois, Hugues, 2013. "The Joint Dynamics of Equity Market Factors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(5), pages 1371-1404, October.
    45. Kiriliouk, Anna & Segers, Johan & Tafakori, Laleh, 2018. "An estimator of the stable tail dependence function based on the empirical beta copula," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2018033, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    46. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-730, August.
    47. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    48. Lu Zhang, 2005. "The Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 67-103, February.
    49. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
    50. Alexander J. McNeil & Rüdiger Frey & Paul Embrechts, 2015. "Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools Revised edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 2, number 10496.
    51. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    52. Barroso, Pedro & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2015. "Momentum has its moments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 111-120.
    53. van Oordt, Maarten R. C. & Zhou, Chen, 2016. "Systematic Tail Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 685-705, April.
    54. Petkova, Ralitsa & Zhang, Lu, 2005. "Is value riskier than growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 187-202, October.
    55. Kewei Hou & Haitao Mo & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2021. "An Augmented q-Factor Model with Expected Growth [Abnormal returns to a fundamental analysis strategy]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 1-41.
    56. Shumway, Tyler, 1997. "The Delisting Bias in CRSP Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 327-340, March.
    57. Florian Weigert, 2016. "Crash Aversion and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns Worldwide," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 135-178.
    58. Yanqin Fan & Andrew J. Patton, 2014. "Copulas in Econometrics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 179-200, August.
    59. Elena Asparouhova & Hendrik Bessembinder & Ivalina Kalcheva, 2013. "Noisy Prices and Inference Regarding Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 665-714, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Donghui & Xing, Lu & Zhao, Yang, 2022. "Does extended auditor disclosure deter managerial bad-news hoarding? Evidence from crash risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Jozef Barunik & Matej Nevrla, 2022. "Common Idiosyncratic Quantile Risk," Papers 2208.14267, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    3. Tongshuai Qiao & Liyan Han, 2023. "COVID‐19 and tail risk contagion across commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 242-272, February.
    4. Aleksy Leeuwenkamp & Wentao Hu, 2023. "New general dependence measures: construction, estimation and application to high-frequency stock returns," Papers 2309.00025, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Markus Huggenberger & Florian Weigert, 2019. "Multivariate Crash Risk," Working Papers on Finance 1901, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    2. Ruenzi, Stefan & Ungeheuer, Michael & Weigert, Florian, 2020. "Joint Extreme events in equity returns and liquidity and their cross-sectional pricing implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    3. Hou, Kewei & Xue, Chen & Zhang, Lu, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," Working Paper Series 2017-10, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    4. Atilgan, Yigit & Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Gunaydin, A. Doruk, 2020. "Left-tail momentum: Underreaction to bad news, costly arbitrage and equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 725-753.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim & Patton, Andrew J. & Quaedvlieg, Rogier, 2022. "Realized semibetas: Disentangling “good” and “bad” downside risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 227-246.
    6. Wang, Feifei & Yan, Xuemin Sterling, 2021. "Downside risk and the performance of volatility-managed portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2018. "Crash Sensitivity and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 1059-1100, June.
    8. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
    9. Lu, Zhongjin & Murray, Scott, 2019. "Bear beta," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(3), pages 736-760.
    10. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, November.
    11. Yang, Huan & Cai, Jun & Huang, Lin & Marcus, Alan J., 2021. "Bank stocks, risk factors, and tail behavior," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 203-229.
    12. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    13. Ruenzi, Stefan & Ungeheuer, Michael & Weigert, Florian, 2013. "Extreme Downside Liquidity Risk," Working Papers on Finance 1326, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Jul 2015.
    14. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Recency bias and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    15. Ji Cao & Marc Oliver Rieger & Lei Zhao, 2019. "Safety First, Loss Probability, and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Working Paper Series 2019-02, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    16. Eom, Cheoljun & Eom, Yunsung & Park, Jong Won, 2023. "Left-tail momentum and tail properties of return distributions: A case of Korea," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    17. Cederburg, Scott & O’Doherty, Michael S. & Wang, Feifei & Yan, Xuemin (Sterling), 2020. "On the performance of volatility-managed portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 95-117.
    18. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Tang, Yi, 2017. "Is economic uncertainty priced in the cross-section of stock returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 471-489.
    19. Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2020. "Beta uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    20. Harris, Richard D.F. & Nguyen, Linh H. & Stoja, Evarist, 2019. "Systematic extreme downside risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 128-142.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Nonlinear dependence; Crash aversion; Downside risk; Tail risk; Lower tail dependence; Copulas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:145:y:2022:i:1:p:129-153. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.