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Is Tail Risk Priced in Credit Default Swap Premia?

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  • Christian Meine
  • Hendrik Supper
  • Gregor N. F. Weiß

Abstract

We show that the propensity of a bank to experience extreme co-movements in its credit default swap (CDS) premia together with the market is priced in the bank’s default swap spread during the financial crisis. We measure a bank’s CDS tail beta by estimating the upper tail dependence between its default swap spreads and a CDS market index. Our study shows that protection sellers receive a premium for bearing the risk of extreme upward co-movements in default risk. The economic significance of this effect is large yet limited to the recent financial crisis. Banks in the upper quintile of CDS tail beta have spreads that are on average 140 basis points higher than those of banks in the lower CDS tail beta quintile.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Meine & Hendrik Supper & Gregor N. F. Weiß, 2016. "Is Tail Risk Priced in Credit Default Swap Premia?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 287-336.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:20:y:2016:i:1:p:287-336.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dong Hwan Oh & Andrew J. Patton, 2018. "Time-Varying Systemic Risk: Evidence From a Dynamic Copula Model of CDS Spreads," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 181-195, April.
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    5. Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2011. "Systemic risk diagnostics: coincident indicators and early warning signals," Working Paper Series 1327, European Central Bank.
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    1. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2017. "Forecasting multidimensional tail risk at short and long horizons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 958-969.
    2. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2017. "Forecasting multidimensional tail risk at short and long horizons," Bank of England working papers 660, Bank of England.
    3. Lang, Chunlin & Hu, Yang & Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg), 2024. "Tail risk connectedness in G7 stock markets: Understanding the impact of COVID-19 and related variants," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    4. Linh H. Nguyen & Linh X. D. Nguyen & Linzhi Tan, 2021. "Tail risk connectedness between US industries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3624-3650, July.
    5. Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde & Sascha Tobias Wengerek, 2019. "Determinants of CDS trading on major banks," Working Papers Dissertations 51, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    6. Fong, Tom Pak Wing & Li, Ka-Fai & Fu, John, 2018. "Accounting for sovereign tail risk in emerging economies: The role of global and domestic risk factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 98-110.
    7. Matthias Pelster & Johannes Vilsmeier, 2018. "The determinants of CDS spreads: evidence from the model space," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 63-118, April.
    8. Irresberger, Felix & Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Gabrysch, Janet & Gabrysch, Sandra, 2018. "Liquidity tail risk and credit default swap spreads," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 1137-1153.
    9. Harris, Richard D.F. & Nguyen, Linh H. & Stoja, Evarist, 2019. "Systematic extreme downside risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 128-142.
    10. Mardi Dungey & John Harvey & Pierre Siklos & Vladimir Volkov, 2017. "Signed spillover effects building on historical decompositions," CAMA Working Papers 2017-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Marisa Basten & Antonio Sánchez Serrano, 2019. "European banks after the global financial crisis: a new landscape," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(1), pages 51-73, March.
    12. Karl Friedrich Siburg & Christopher Strothmann & Gregor Wei{ss}, 2022. "Comparing and quantifying tail dependence," Papers 2208.10319, arXiv.org.
    13. Supper, Hendrik & Irresberger, Felix & Weiß, Gregor, 2020. "A comparison of tail dependence estimators," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(2), pages 728-742.
    14. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Huggenberger, Markus & Weigert, Florian, 2022. "Multivariate crash risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 129-153.
    15. Zimmermann, Paul, 2021. "The role of the leverage effect in the price discovery process of credit markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    16. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Markus Huggenberger & Florian Weigert, 2019. "Multivariate Crash Risk," Working Papers on Finance 1901, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.

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