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The Hedging Cost of Forgetting the Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Beatriz de la Flor

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid and ICAE (Spain).)

  • Javier Ojea-Ferreiro

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid and ICAE (Spain).)

  • Eva Ferreira

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid and ICAE (Spain).)

Abstract

The safe-haven property of gold has been widely studied, although little attention has been paid to how exchange rate movements could affect hedging strategies. We analyse the exchange rate role in stock portfolios hedged with gold in several regions from the point of view of non-US and US investors, using vine copulas to model the relation between gold, stock and exchange rates. We find a leading role played by exchange rate hedging stock losses, which outstrips the position of gold (index) in non-US (US) portfolios. The inclusion of the exchange rate can reduce the ES between 107 and 162 bps. An out-of-sample exercise supports our results. The implications of this study go beyond risk management decisions. Regulatory and supervisory authorities might find tools to assess the performance of financial assets under market distress scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Beatriz de la Flor & Javier Ojea-Ferreiro & Eva Ferreira, 2022. "The Hedging Cost of Forgetting the Exchange Rate," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2022-01, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:2201
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate risk; Hedging strategy; Risk measures; Tail dependence; Vine copula.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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