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Hedges or safe havens—revisit the role of gold and USD against stock: a multivariate extended skew- copula approach

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  • Chung-Shin Liu
  • Meng-Shiuh Chang
  • Ximing Wu
  • Chin Man Chui

Abstract

Our paper concerns the question of whether there exist hedge assets during extreme market conditions, which has become increasingly important since the recent financial crisis. This paper develops a novel extended skew-t copula model to examine the effectiveness of gold and US dollar (USD) as hedge or safe haven asset against stock prices for seven developed markets over the 2000–2013 period. Our results indicate the existence of skewness and heavy/thin tails in the distributions of all three types of assets in most of the developed markets, lending support to the employment of flexible distributions to evaluate the tail dependences among assets. We find that USD is preferred to gold as a hedge asset during normal market conditions, while both assets can serve as safe haven assets for most countries when stock markets crash. Our simultaneous analysis of the three assets advises against a joint hedge strategy of gold and USD due to the high tail dependence between them during extreme market conditions. This result highlights the importance of simultaneous modelling of multiple assets in financial risk analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Chung-Shin Liu & Meng-Shiuh Chang & Ximing Wu & Chin Man Chui, 2016. "Hedges or safe havens—revisit the role of gold and USD against stock: a multivariate extended skew- copula approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1763-1789, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:16:y:2016:i:11:p:1763-1789
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2016.1176238
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    2. Arif, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Farid, Saqib & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2022. "Diversifier or more? Hedge and safe haven properties of green bonds during COVID-19," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    3. Tachibana, Minoru, 2022. "Safe haven assets for international stock markets: A regime-switching factor copula approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Yun Shi & Lin Yang & Mei Huang & Jun Steed Huang, 2021. "Multi-Factorized Semi-Covariance of Stock Markets and Gold Price," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-11, April.
    5. Wen, Xiaoqian & Cheng, Hua, 2018. "Which is the safe haven for emerging stock markets, gold or the US dollar?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 69-90.
    6. Zeng, Sheng & Liu, Xinchun & Li, Xiafei & Wei, Qi & Shang, Yue, 2019. "Information dominance among hedging assets: Evidence from return and volatility directional spillovers in time and frequency domains," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    7. shah, Adil Ahmad & Bhanja, Niyati & Dar, Arif Billah, 2023. "Do gold and the US dollar diversify global sectoral risk? Evidence from connectedness and dynamic conditional correlation measures," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    8. Gurdgiev, Constantin & Petrovskiy, Alexander, 2024. "Hedging and safe haven assets dynamics in developed and developing markets: Are different markets that much different?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. Feng, Jingyu & Yuan, Ying & Jiang, Mingxuan, 2024. "Are stablecoins better safe havens or hedges against global stock markets than other assets? Comparative analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 275-301.
    10. Meng-Shiuh Chang & Meng-Wei Chen & Peijie Ju, 2023. "Asymmetry in Hedges, Safe Havens, Flights and Contagion: Unconditional Quantile Regression Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, November.
    11. Dong, Xiyong & Li, Changhong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "How can investors build a better portfolio in small open economies? Evidence from Asia’s Four Little Dragons," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. Wei Huang & Meng-Shiuh Chang, 2021. "Gold and Government Bonds as Safe-Haven Assets Against Stock Market Turbulence in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(1), pages 21582440219, January.
    13. Lei Ming & Yao Shen & Shenggang Yang & Minyi Dong, 2022. "Contagion or flight‐to‐quality? The linkage between oil price and the US dollar based on the local Gaussian approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 722-750, April.
    14. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Safe haven properties of green, Islamic, and crypto assets and investor's proclivity towards treasury and gold," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    15. Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Billah, Mabruk & Alam, Md Rafayet & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2024. "Gold-backed cryptocurrencies: A hedging tool against categorical and regional financial stress," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    16. Cho, Dooyeon & Han, Heejoon, 2021. "The tail behavior of safe haven currencies: A cross-quantilogram analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    17. Chang, Meng-Shiuh & Ju, Peijie & Liu, Yilei & Hsueh, Shao-Chieh, 2022. "Determining hedges and safe havens for stocks using interval analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    18. Yuri Salazar Flores & Adán Díaz-Hernández, 2021. "Counterdiagonal/nonpositive tail dependence in Vine copula constructions: application to portfolio management," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(2), pages 375-407, June.

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