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Gold and the U.S. dollar: tales from the turmoil

  • Paolo Zagaglia
  • Massimiliano Marzo

We investigate how the relation between gold prices and the U.S. dollar has been affected by the recent turmoil in financial markets. We use spot prices of gold and spot bilateral exchange rates against the euro and the British pound to study the pattern of volatility spillovers. We estimate the bivariate structural GARCH models proposed by Spargoli and Zagaglia to gauge the causal relations between volatility changes in the two assets. We also apply the tests for change of co-dependence of Cappiello et al. to study the impact of the turmoil on the relation between gold and the U.S. dollar. We document the ability of gold to generate stable comovements with the dollar exchange rate that have survived the recent phases of market disruption. Our findings also show that exogenous increases in market uncertainty have tended to produce reactions of gold prices that are more stable than those of the U.S. dollar.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14697688.2012.708431
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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.

Volume (Year): 13 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 (March)
Pages: 571-582

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Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:13:y:2013:i:4:p:571-582
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  1. Christie-David, Rohan & Chaudhry, Mukesh & Koch, Timothy W., 2000. "Do macroeconomics news releases affect gold and silver prices?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 405-421.
  2. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2007. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp198, IIIS.
  3. Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 2006. "Volatility impulse responses for multivariate GARCH models: An exchange rate illustration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 719-740, August.
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  6. Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
  7. Davidson, Sinclair & Faff, Robert & Hillier, David, 2003. "Gold factor exposures in international asset pricing," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 271-289, July.
  8. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  9. Cappiello, Lorenzo & GĂ©rard, Bruno & Manganelli, Simone, 2005. "Measuring comovements by regression quantiles," Working Paper Series 0501, European Central Bank.
  10. Dirk G. Baur & Thomas K. McDermott, . "Is gold a safe haven? International evidence," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp310, IIIS.
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  13. Spargoli, Fabrizio & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2008. "The co-movements along the forward curve of natural gas futures: a structural view ," Research Discussion Papers 26/2008, Bank of Finland.
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