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Black swan events and safe havens: The role of gold in globally integrated emerging markets

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  • Bekiros, Stelios
  • Boubaker, Sabri
  • Nguyen, Duc Khuong
  • Uddin, Gazi Salah

Abstract

There is evidence to suggest that gold acts as both a hedge and a safe haven for equity markets over recent years, and particularly during crises periods. Our work extends the recent literature on hedging and diversification roles of gold by analyzing its interaction with the stock markets of the leading emerging economies, the BRICS. While they generally exhibit a high growth rate, these economies still experience a pronounced vulnerability to external shocks, particularly to commodity price fluctuations. Using a multi-scale wavelet approach and a GARCH-based copula methodology, we mainly show evidence of: (i) the time-scale co-evolvement patterns between BRICS stock markets and gold market, with some profound regions of concentrated extreme variations; and (ii) a strong time-varying asymmetric dependence structure between those markets. These findings are essential for risk diversification and portfolio hedging strategies among the investigated markets.

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  • Bekiros, Stelios & Boubaker, Sabri & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2017. "Black swan events and safe havens: The role of gold in globally integrated emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 317-334.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:73:y:2017:i:pb:p:317-334
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.02.010
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    1. Mensi, Walid & Hkiri, Besma & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis H. & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2018. "Analyzing time–frequency co-movements across gold and oil prices with BRICS stock markets: A VaR based on wavelet approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 74-102.
    2. Kang, Sang Hoon & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Ahmed, Ali & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2018. "Multi-scale causality and extreme tail inter-dependence among housing prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 301-309.
    3. Raza, Naveed & Ali, Sajid & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Syed Ali, 2018. "Do commodities effectively hedge real estate risk? A multi-scale asymmetric DCC approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 10-29.
    4. Kang, Sang Hoon & McIver, Ron P. & Hernandez, Jose Arreola, 2019. "Co-movements between Bitcoin and Gold: A wavelet coherence analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    5. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Naveed Raza & David Roubaud & Jose Arreola Hernandez & Stelios Bekiros, 2019. "Gold as Safe Haven for G-7 Stocks and Bonds: A Revisit," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(4), pages 885-912, December.
    6. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Bekiros, Stelios & Ahmed, Ali, 2018. "The nexus between geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil markets: An entropy-based wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 30-39.
    7. Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Jammazi, Rania & Assaf, Ata, 2017. "Uncovering frequency domain causality between gold and the stock markets of China and India: Evidence from implied volatility indices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 23-30.
    8. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Abdoh, Hussein & Awartani, Basel, 2019. "Connectedness and hedging between gold and Islamic securities: A new evidence from time-frequency domain approaches," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 13-28.
    9. Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Raza, Naveed & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ali, Azwadi, 2017. "Dependence of stock markets with gold and bonds under bullish and bearish market states," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 308-319.
    10. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Lucey, Brian, 2019. "Is Bitcoin a better safe-haven investment than gold and commodities?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 322-330.
    11. Troster, Victor & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2019. "A quantile regression analysis of flights-to-safety with implied volatilities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 482-495.
    12. Wen, Xiaoqian & Cheng, Hua, 2018. "Which is the safe haven for emerging stock markets, gold or the US dollar?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 69-90.
    13. Wen, Xiaoqian & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2017. "Can investors of Chinese energy stocks benefit from diversification into commodity futures?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 184-200.
    14. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Dynamic network of implied volatility transmission among US equities, strategic commodities, and BRICS equities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-12.
    15. Michael Curran & Ryan Zalla, 2020. "Can Volatility Solve the Na\"ive Diversification Puzzle?," Papers 2005.03204, arXiv.org.
    16. Bulut, Levent & Rizvanoghlu, Islam, 2019. "Is Gold a Safe Haven? International Evidence revisited," MPRA Paper 91957, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Wang, Xinya & Liu, Huifang & Huang, Shupei, 2019. "Identification of the daily seasonality in gold returns and volatilities: Evidence from Shanghai and London," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 522-531.
    18. Jin, Jiayu & Han, Liyan & Wu, Lei & Zeng, Hongchao, 2020. "The hedging effectiveness of global sectors in emerging and developed stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 92-117.
    19. Riadh Abed & Amna Zardoub, 2019. "On the co-movements among gold and other financial markets: a multivariate time-varying asymmetric approach," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 701-719, October.
    20. Mustapha Olalekan Ojo & Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "A Time-Frequency Analysis of Sovereign Debt Contagion in Europe," NIPE Working Papers 11/2019, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    21. Lin, Ling & Kuang, Yuanpei & Jiang, Yong & Su, Xianfang, 2019. "Assessing risk contagion among the Brent crude oil market, London gold market and stock markets: Evidence based on a new wavelet decomposition approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    22. Ahmad, Wasim & Sadorsky, Perry & Sharma, Amit, 2018. "Optimal hedge ratios for clean energy equities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 278-295.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity markets; Copulas; Gold; Time-scale analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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