IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0290.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Joint distribution of stock indices: Methodological aspects of construction and selection of copula models

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Knyazev

    (Astrakhan State University, Astrakhan, Russian Federation)

  • Oleg Lepekhin

    (Astrakhan State University, Astrakhan, Russian Federation)

  • Arkady Shemyakin

    (University of St. Thomas, St. Paul, USA)

Abstract

The paper discusses the practical aspects of modeling joint distribution of pairs of national stock indices via copula functions. Parameters of marginal distributions and the association parameter describing the dependence structure are estimated using empirical Bayes method numerically implemented with the help of random walk Metropolis algorithm. A comparison of parametric and semiparametric approaches to copula model construction is performed. The problem of selection of a class of pair copula functions approximating such empirical characteristics of stock indices dependence as Kendall’s concordance, joint empirical cumulative distribution function, and tail behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Knyazev & Oleg Lepekhin & Arkady Shemyakin, 2016. "Joint distribution of stock indices: Methodological aspects of construction and selection of copula models," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 42, pages 30-53.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0290
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2016_42_030-053.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70969520 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Aas, Kjersti & Czado, Claudia & Frigessi, Arnoldo & Bakken, Henrik, 2009. "Pair-copula constructions of multiple dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 182-198, April.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-730, August.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70969520 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Efim Bronshtein & Elena Prokudina & Anna Gerasimova & Ksenya Dubinskaya, 2011. "Estimation of the interdependence of time series of stocks prices based on copula," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 22(2), pages 22-31.
    6. Dean Fantazzini, 2011. "Analysis of multidimensional probability distributions with copula functions. III," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 24(4), pages 100-130.
    7. Marius Hofert & Matthias Scherer, 2011. "CDO pricing with nested Archimedean copulas," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 775-787.
    8. Mandelbrot, Benoit B, 1972. "Correction of an Error in "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices" (1963)," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(4), pages 542-543, October.
    9. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2009. "International Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2591-2626, December.
    10. Justel, Ana & Peña, Daniel & Zamar, Rubén, 1997. "A multivariate Kolmogorov-Smirnov test of goodness of fit," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 251-259, October.
    11. Joe, Harry, 2005. "Asymptotic efficiency of the two-stage estimation method for copula-based models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 401-419, June.
    12. Kojadinovic, Ivan & Yan, Jun, 2010. "Comparison of three semiparametric methods for estimating dependence parameters in copula models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 52-63, August.
    13. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2006. "The Copula-GARCH model of conditional dependencies: An international stock market application," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 827-853, August.
    14. You, Leyuan & Daigler, Robert T., 2010. "Is international diversification really beneficial?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 163-173, January.
    15. T. Ane & L. Ureche-Rangau, 2008. "Time-varying conditional dependence in chinese stock markets," Post-Print hal-00578249, HAL.
    16. Patton, Andrew J, 2001. "Modelling Time-Varying Exchange Rate Dependence Using the Conditional Copula," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt01q7j1s2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    17. Ines Fortin & Christoph Kuzmics, 2002. "Tail‐dependence in stock‐return pairs," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 89-107, April.
    18. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2011. "International portfolio diversification is better than you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 289-308, March.
    19. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70969520 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Penikas, H., 2010. "Financial Applications of Copula-Models," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 7, pages 24-44.
    21. Twm Evans & David G. McMillan, 2009. "Financial co-movement and correlation: evidence from 33 international stock market indices," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 215-241.
    22. Anil Sharma & Neha Seth, 2012. "Literature review of stock market integration: a global perspective," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(1), pages 84-122, April.
    23. EnDer Su, 2017. "Measuring and Testing Tail Dependence and Contagion Risk Between Major Stock Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 325-351, August.
    24. Yury Blagoveschensky, 2012. "Basics of copula’s theory," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 26(2), pages 113-130.
    25. Hu, Jian, 2008. "Dependence Structures in Chinese and U.S. Financial Markets -- A Time-varying Conditional Copula Approach," MPRA Paper 11401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    27. Dean Fantazzini, 2011. "Analysis of multidimensional probability distributions with copula functions. II," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 23(3), pages 98-132.
    28. Fermanian, Jean-David, 2005. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 119-152, July.
    29. Kim, Gunky & Silvapulle, Mervyn J. & Silvapulle, Paramsothy, 2007. "Comparison of semiparametric and parametric methods for estimating copulas," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 2836-2850, March.
    30. Puzanova, Natalia, 2011. "A hierarchical Archimedean copula for portfolio credit risk modelling," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    31. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70969520 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Thierry Ane & Loredana Ureche-Rangau & Chiraz Labidi-Makni, 2008. "Time-varying conditional dependence in Chinese stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(11), pages 895-916.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrey Bedin & Alexander Kulikov & Andrey Polbin, 2023. "Copula-Based Modelling of Relationship Between Dollar/Rouble Exchange Rate and Oil Prices," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(3), pages 87-109, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alexandr Travkin, 2013. "Pair copula constructions in portfolio optimization ploblem," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 32(4), pages 110-133.
    2. Koliai, Lyes, 2016. "Extreme risk modeling: An EVT–pair-copulas approach for financial stress tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-22.
    3. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.
    4. Alexey Balaev, 2014. "The copula based on multivariate t-distribution with vector of degrees of freedom," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 90-110.
    5. Travkin, A., 2015. "Estimating Pair-Copula Constructions Using Empirical Tail Dependence Functions: an Application to Russian Stock Market," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 39-55.
    6. Kellner, Ralf & Rösch, Daniel, 2019. "A country specific point of view on international diversification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Dean Fantazzini, 2011. "Analysis of multidimensional probability distributions with copula functions," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 22(2), pages 98-134.
    8. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    9. Dominique Guégan, 2009. "A Meta-Distribution for Non-Stationary Samples," CREATES Research Papers 2009-24, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    10. Sylvia J. Soltyk & Felix Chan, 2023. "Modeling time‐varying higher‐order conditional moments: A survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 33-57, February.
    11. Allen, David & Lizieri, Colin & Satchell, Stephen, 2020. "A comparison of non-Gaussian VaR estimation and portfolio construction techniques," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 356-368.
    12. Yao Axel Ehouman, 2021. "Dependence structure between oil price volatility and sovereign credit risk of oil exporters : Evidence using a Copula Approach," Post-Print hal-03348410, HAL.
    13. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    14. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2011. "International diversification: A copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 403-417, February.
    15. BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner C. & Laurent, S., 2011. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner, C. & Laurent, S., 2012. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2012028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    16. Brechmann Eike Christain & Czado Claudia, 2013. "Risk management with high-dimensional vine copulas: An analysis of the Euro Stoxx 50," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 30(4), pages 307-342, December.
    17. Manner, Hans & Alavi Fard, Farzad & Pourkhanali, Armin & Tafakori, Laleh, 2019. "Forecasting the joint distribution of Australian electricity prices using dynamic vine copulae," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 143-164.
    18. Chebbi, Ali & Hedhli, Amel, 2022. "Revisiting the accuracy of standard VaR methods for risk assessment: Using the Copula–EVT multidimensional approach for stock markets in the MENA region," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 430-445.
    19. Ephraim Clark & Konstantinos Kassimatis, 2013. "International equity flows, marginal conditional stochastic dominance and diversification," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 251-271, February.
    20. Yali Dou & Haiyan Liu & Georgios Aivaliotis, 2019. "Dynamic Dependence Modeling in financial time series," Papers 1908.05130, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0290. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anatoly Peresetsky (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.