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A Meta-Distribution for Non-Stationary Samples

  • Dominique Guégan

    ()

    (PSE, Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne, University Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

In this paper, we focus on the building of an invariant distribution function associated to a non-stationary sample. After discussing some specific problems encountered by non-stationarity inside samples like the "spurious" long memory effect, we build a sequence of stationary processes permitting to define the concept of meta-distribution for a given non-stationary sample. We use this new approach to discuss some interesting econometric issues in a non-stationary setting, namely forecasting and risk management strategy.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.econ.au.dk/creates/rp/09/rp09_24.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2009-24.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2009-24
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

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  1. Dominique Guegan, 2005. "How can we define the concept of long memory ? An econometric survey," Post-Print halshs-00179343, HAL.
  2. Frederic Bec & Melika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2004. "Tests for Unit-Root versus Threshold Specification With an Application to the Purchasing Power Parity Relationship," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 382-395, October.
  3. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  4. Ohanissian, Arek & Russell, Jeffrey R. & Tsay, Ruey S., 2008. "True or Spurious Long Memory? A New Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 161-175, April.
  5. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J., 1996. "Modeling volatility persistence of speculative returns: A new approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 185-215, July.
  6. Dominique Guegan & Pierre-André Maugis, 2010. "New Prospects on Vines," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00348884, HAL.
  7. Cyril Caillault, Dominique Guégan, 2009. "Forecasting VaR and Expected Shortfall Using Dynamical Systems: A Risk Management Strategy," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, SKEMA Business School, vol. 6(1), pages 26-50, April.
  8. A. W. Coats, 1996. "Introduction," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 28(5), pages 3-11, Supplemen.
  9. Philipp Sibbertsen & Robinson Kruse, 2009. "Testing for a break in persistence under long-range dependencies," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 263-285, 05.
  10. Dominique Guegan, 2004. "How Can We Define the Long Memory Concept? An Econometric Survey," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 361, Econometric Society.
  11. Thomas Mikosch & Catalin Starica, 2004. "Non-stationarities in financial time series, the long range dependence and the IGARCH effects," Econometrics 0412005, EconWPA.
  12. Cătălin Stărică & Clive Granger, 2005. "Nonstationarities in Stock Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 503-522, August.
  13. Dominique Guegan & Jing Zhang, 2010. "Change analysis of a dynamic copula for measuring dependence in multivariate financial data," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00368334, HAL.
  14. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  15. Lanouar Charfeddine & Dominique Guegan, 2009. "Breaks or Long Memory Behaviour : An empirical Investigation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00377485, HAL.
  16. Cyril Caillault & Dominique Guegan, 2005. "Empirical Estimation of Tail Dependence Using Copulas. Application to Asian Markets," Post-Print halshs-00180865, HAL.
  17. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  18. Fermanian, Jean-David, 2005. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 119-152, July.
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