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A Skewed GARCH-in-Mean Model: An Application to U.S. Stock Returns

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  • Pentti Saikkonen
  • Markku Lanne

Abstract

In this paper we consider a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model based on the so-called z distribution. This distribution is capable of modeling moderate skewness and kurtosis typically encountered in financial return series, and the need to allow for skewness can be readily tested. We apply the new GARCH-M model to study the relationship between risk and return in monthly postwar U.S. stock market data. Our results indicate the presence of conditional skewness in U.S. stock returns, and, in contrast to the previous literature, we show that a positive and significant relationship between return and risk can be uncovered, once an appropriate probability distribution is employed to allow for conditional skewness

Suggested Citation

  • Pentti Saikkonen & Markku Lanne, 2004. "A Skewed GARCH-in-Mean Model: An Application to U.S. Stock Returns," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 469, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:469
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Riccardo Borgoni & Piero Quatto & Giorgio Somà & Daniela Bartolo, 2010. "A geostatistical approach to define guidelines for radon prone area identification," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 19(2), pages 255-276, June.
    2. Pelagatti Matteo M, 2009. "Modelling Good and Bad Volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional skewness; GARCH-in-Mean; Risk-return tradeoff;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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