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Testing Conditional Dynamics in Asymmetry. A Residual-Based Approach

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  • Philippe Lambert
  • Sébastien Laurent

Abstract

We propose three residual-based tests for conditional dynamic asymmetry. Estimation is performed under the null hypothesis of constant asymmetry of the innovations and, in a second step, the tests are performed either through a parametric model or a nonparametric method (runs). The working distribution is assumed to fall into the class of skewed distributions of Fernandez and Steel (1998) for which asymmetry is measured by the ratio between the probabilities of being larger and smaller than the mode. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the tests that incorporates the uncertainty of the estimated parameters in the first step. A Monte Carlo study shows that neglecting this uncertainty severely biases the tests and an empirical application on a basket of daily returns reveals that financial data often present dynamics in the conditional skewness.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Lambert & Sébastien Laurent, 2008. "Testing Conditional Dynamics in Asymmetry. A Residual-Based Approach," Working Papers ECARES 2008_009, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2008_009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2001. "A consistent test for conditional symmetry in time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 225-258, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional skewness; asymmetry; residuals;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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