Stochastic Volatility Model with Leverage and Asymmetrically Heavy-Tailed Error Using GH Skew Student's t-Distribution Models
Bayesian analysis of a stochastic volatility model with a generalized hyperbolic (GH) skew Student's t-error distribution is described where we first consider an asymmetric heavy-tailed error and leverage effects. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation method is described that exploits a normal variance-mean mixture representation of the error distribution with an inverse gamma distribution as the mixing distribution. The proposed method is illustrated using simulated data, daily S&P500 and TOPIX stock returns. The models for stock returns are compared based on the marginal likelihood in the empirical study. There is strong evidence in the stock returns high leverage and an asymmetric heavy-tailed distribution. Furthermore, a prior sensitivity analysis is conducted whether the results obtained are robust with respect to the choice of the priors.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Hongo 7-3-1, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0033|
Web page: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/index.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Strickland, Chris M. & Martin, Gael M. & Forbes, Catherine S., 2008.
"Parameterisation and efficient MCMC estimation of non-Gaussian state space models,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis,
Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2911-2930, February.
- Chris M Strickland & Gael Martin & Catherine S Forbes, 2006. "Parameterisation and Efficient MCMC Estimation of Non-Gaussian State Space Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Nakajima, Jouchi & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2009. "Leverage, heavy-tails and correlated jumps in stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2335-2353, April.
- Jouchi Nakajima & Yasuhiro Omori, 2007. "Leverage, heavy-tails and correlated jumps in stochastic volatility models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-514, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- M. C. Jones & M. J. Faddy, 2003. "A skew extension of the "t"-distribution, with applications," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 159-174.
- Takahashi, Makoto & Omori, Yasuhiro & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2009. "Estimating stochastic volatility models using daily returns and realized volatility simultaneously," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2404-2426, April.
- Makoto Takahashi & Yasuhiro Omori & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2007. "Estimating Stochastic Volatility Models Using Daily Returns and Realized Volatility Simultaneously," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-515, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Tina Hviid Rydberg, 1999. "Generalized Hyperbolic Diffusion Processes with Applications in Finance," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 183-201.
- Omori, Yasuhiro & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2008. "Block sampler and posterior mode estimation for asymmetric stochastic volatility models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2892-2910, February.
- Yasuhiro Omori & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2007. "Block Sampler and Posterior Mode Estimation for Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-507, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Chernov, Mikhail & Ronald Gallant, A. & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2003. "Alternative models for stock price dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 225-257.
- Chernov, Mikhail & Gallant, A. Ronald & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2002. "Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamic," Working Papers 02-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Mikhail Chernov & A. Ronald Gallant & Eric Ghysels & George Tauchen, 2002. "Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-58, CIRANO.
- Yu, Jun, 2005. "On leverage in a stochastic volatility model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 165-178, August.
- Jun Yu, 2004. "On Leverage in a Stochastic Volatility Model," Working Papers 13-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Jun Yu, 2004. "On Leverage in a Stochastic Volatility Model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 506, Econometric Society.
- Jun Yu, 2004. "On leverage in a stochastic volatility model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 497, Econometric Society.
- Chib S. & Jeliazkov I., 2001. "Marginal Likelihood From the Metropolis-Hastings Output," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 270-281, March.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-730, August.
- Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," RCER Working Papers 322, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's GARCH models with time-varying t-densities," Statistical Software Components RTZ00086, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kjersti Aas & Ingrid Hobaek Haff, 2006. "The Generalized Hyperbolic Skew Student's t-Distribution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(2), pages 275-309.
- Raggi, Davide & Bordignon, Silvano, 2006. "Comparing stochastic volatility models through Monte Carlo simulations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1678-1699, April.
- Andersson, Jonas, 2001. "On the Normal Inverse Gaussian Stochastic Volatility Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 44-54, January.
- Chib, Siddhartha & Nardari, Federico & Shephard, Neil, 2002. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 281-316, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)