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Estimating value at risk of portfolio by conditional copula-GARCH method

Author

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  • Huang, Jen-Jsung
  • Lee, Kuo-Jung
  • Liang, Hueimei
  • Lin, Wei-Fu

Abstract

Copula functions represent a methodology that describes the dependence structure of a multi-dimension random variable and has become one of the most significant new tools to handle risk factors in finance, such as Value-at Risk (VaR), which is probably the most widely used risk measure in financial institutions. Combining copula and the forecast function of the GARCH model, this paper proposes a new method, called conditional copula-GARCH, to compute the VaR of portfolios. This work presents an application of the copula-GARCH model in the estimation of a portfolio's VaR, composed of NASDAQ and TAIEX. The empirical results show that, compared with traditional methods, the copula model captures the VaR more successfully. In addition, the Student-t copula describes the dependence structure of the portfolio return series quite well.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Jen-Jsung & Lee, Kuo-Jung & Liang, Hueimei & Lin, Wei-Fu, 2009. "Estimating value at risk of portfolio by conditional copula-GARCH method," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 315-324, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:45:y:2009:i:3:p:315-324
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gijbels, Irène & Herrmann, Klaus, 2014. "On the distribution of sums of random variables with copula-induced dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 27-44.
    2. Huang, Hung-Hsi & Lin, Shin-Hung & Wang, Ching-Ping & Chiu, Chia-Yung, 2014. "Adjusting MV-efficient portfolio frontier bias for skewed and non-mesokurtic returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 59-83.
    3. Berger, Theo, 2016. "On the isolated impact of copulas on risk measurement: Asimulation study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 475-481.
    4. Leh-Chyan So & Jun-Yang Yu, 2015. "IMPROVED DETECTION OF RARE-EVENT RISK OF A PORTFOLIO WITH U.S. REITs," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-25, December.
    5. Mawuli Segnon & Mark Trede, 2017. "Forecasting Market Risk of Portfolios: Copula-Markov Switching Multifractal Approach," CQE Working Papers 6617, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    6. repec:eee:intfor:v:34:y:2018:i:3:p:497-506 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:quaeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:275-291 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:mup:actaun:actaun_2015063061969 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eee:mulfin:v:42-43:y:2017:i::p:116-131 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ales Kresta & Tomas Tichy, 2012. "International Equity Portfolio Risk Modeling: The Case of the NIG Model and Ordinary Copula Functions," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(2), pages 141-161, May.
    11. Swanepoel, J.W.H. & Allison, J.S., 2013. "Some new results on the empirical copula estimator with applications," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(7), pages 1731-1739.
    12. Zhang, Bangzheng & Wei, Yu & Yu, Jiang & Lai, Xiaodong & Peng, Zhenfeng, 2014. "Forecasting VaR and ES of stock index portfolio: A Vine copula method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 416(C), pages 112-124.
    13. repec:eee:intfor:v:34:y:2018:i:3:p:456-476 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Han, Yingying & Gong, Pu & Zhou, Xiang, 2016. "Correlations and risk contagion between mixed assets and mixed-asset portfolio VaR measurements in a dynamic view: An application based on time varying copula models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 940-953.
    15. repec:eee:intfin:v:53:y:2018:i:c:p:263-286 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Mirela NICHITA, 2015. "An Overview On State Of Knowledge Of Risk And Risk Management In Economics Fields," SEA - Practical Application of Science, Fundația Română pentru Inteligența Afacerii, Editorial Department, issue 7, pages 423-430, April.
    17. Zhu, Hui-Ming & Li, Rong & Li, Sufang, 2014. "Modelling dynamic dependence between crude oil prices and Asia-Pacific stock market returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 208-223.
    18. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1146-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Muteba Mwamba, John & Mokwena, Paula, 2013. "International diversification and dependence structure of equity portfolios during market crashes: the Archimedean copula approach," MPRA Paper 64384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Berger, T. & Missong, M., 2014. "Financial crisis, Value-at-Risk forecasts and the puzzle of dependency modeling," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 33-38.

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    Keywords

    Copula GARCH VaR;

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