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Exponentially Smoothing the Skewed Laplace Distribution for Value‐at‐Risk Forecasting

  • Richard Gerlach
  • Zudi Lu
  • Hai Huang
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    No abstract is available for this item.

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    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 6 (09)
    Pages: 534-550

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    Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:32:y:2013:i:6:p:534-550
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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    1. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
    2. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-30, August.
    4. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
    6. Mark J Jensen & John M Maheu, 2008. "Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling," Working Papers tecipa-314, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    7. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 318-334, September.
    8. Chan, Nancy Y. C. & Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard, 2009. "Bayesian time-varying quantile forecasting for Value-at-Risk in financial markets," Working Papers 01/2009, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    9. Griffin, J.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 2006. "Order-Based Dependent Dirichlet Processes," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 179-194, March.
    10. John Galbraith & Dongming Zhu, 2009. "Forecasting Expected Shortfall With A Generalized Asymmetric Student-T Distribution," Departmental Working Papers 2009-01, McGill University, Department of Economics.
    11. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    12. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "Tests for Skewness, Kurtosis, and Normality for Time Series Data," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 501, Boston College Department of Economics.
    13. Campbell R. Harvey & Akhtar Siddique, 2000. "Conditional Skewness in Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1263-1295, 06.
    14. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
    15. Kjersti Aas & Ingrid Hobaek Haff, 2006. "The Generalized Hyperbolic Skew Student's t-Distribution," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(2), pages 275-309.
    16. Panayiotis Theodossiou, 1998. "Financial Data and the Skewed Generalized T Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-1), pages 1650-1661, December.
    17. Nelson, Daniel B & Foster, Dean P, 1994. "Asymptotic Filtering Theory for Univariate ARCH Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 1-41, January.
    18. Michal Kaut & Hercules Vladimirou & Stein W. Wallace & Stavros A. Zenios, 2007. "Stability analysis of portfolio management with conditional value-at-risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 397-409.
    19. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(04), pages 465-487, December.
    20. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    21. Samuel Kotz & Tomasz Kozubowski & Krzysztof Podgórski, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Asymmetric Laplace Parameters," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 816-826, December.
    22. Guermat, Cherif & Harris, Richard D. F., 2002. "Forecasting value at risk allowing for time variation in the variance and kurtosis of portfolio returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 409-419.
    23. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Keith Kuester & Stefan Mittnik & Marc S. Paolella, 2006. "Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 53-89.
    25. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
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