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Flexible time series models for subjective distribution estimation with monetary policy in view

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Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a new approach to estimate the subjective distribution of the future short rate from the historical dynamics of futures, based on a model generated by a Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution, with dynamical parameters. The model displays time varying conditional volatility, skewness and kurtosis and provides a flexible framework to recover the conditional distribution of the future rates. For the estimation, we use maximum likelihood method. Then, we apply the model to Fed Fund futures and discuss its performance

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  • Dominique Guégan & Florian Ielpo, 2007. "Flexible time series models for subjective distribution estimation with monetary policy in view," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne b07056, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:b07056
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Subjective distribution; autoregressive conditional density; generalized hyperbolic distribution; Fed Funds futures contracts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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