Flexible time series models for subjective distribution estimation with monetary policy in view
In this paper, we introduce a new approach to estimate the subjective distribution of the future short rate from the historical dynamics of futures, based on a model generated by a Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution, with dynamical parameters. The model displays time varying conditional volatility, skewness and kurtosis and provides a flexible framework to recover the conditional distribution of the future rates. For the estimation, we use maximum likelihood method. Then, we apply the model to Fed Fund futures and discuss its performance.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: + 33 44 07 81 00
Fax: + 33 1 44 07 83 01
Web page: http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1994.
"Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-30, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's GARCH models with time-varying t-densities," Statistical Software Components RTZ00086, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," RCER Working Papers 322, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000.
"Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 2000. "Nonparametric Risk Management and Implied Risk Aversion," NBER Working Papers 6130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Conditional volatility, skewness, and kurtosis: existence, persistence, and comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1699-1737, August.
- Morten B. Jensen & Asger Lunde, 2001. "The NIG-S&ARCH model: a fat-tailed, stochastic, and autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic volatility model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 10.
- Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008.
"Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
- Monika Piazzesi & Eric T. Swanson, 2004. "Future prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Monika Piazzesi & Eric Swanson, 2004. "Futures Prices as Risk-adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 10547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Monika Piazzesi & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2006-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- John B. Carlson & William R. Melick & Erkin Y. Sahinoz, 2003. "An option for anticipating Fed action," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Sep.
- Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002.
"Empirical pricing kernels,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June.
- Joshua Rosenberg & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Empirical Pricing Kernels," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-014, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Jens Carsten Jackwerth., 1996.
"Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns,"
Research Program in Finance Working Papers
RPF-265, University of California at Berkeley.
- Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-51.
- Jens Carsten Jackwerth, 1998. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Finance 9803002, EconWPA.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Marie Briere, 2006. "Market Reactions to Central Bank Communication Policies :Reading Interest Rate Options Smiles," Working Papers CEB 38, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- John C. Robertson & Daniel L. Thornton, 1997. "Using federal funds futures rates to predict Federal Reserve actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 45-53.
- Ielpo, Florian & Guégan, Dominique, 2006. "An econometric specification of monetary policy dark art," MPRA Paper 1004, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 2006.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:b07056. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lucie Label)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.