IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Asymmetry and downside risk in foreign exchange markets

  • Shaun Bond
  • Stephen Satchell
Registered author(s):

    This paper evaluates the double gamma distribution as a means of modelling asymmetry in the conditional distribution of financial data. To do this the model is applied to ten exchange rate series covering mature and emerging market countries. A second contribution of this paper is to highlight the link between the double gamma distribution and the measurement of the second lower partial moment (or semi-variance). The resulting empirical performance of the double gamma model is found to be mixed when compared to a symmetric GARCH-t model. Estimates of conditional downside risk based on the double gamma model are constructed for each series. The results for the Malaysian Riggit, Zimbabwe Dollar and the Korean Won demonstrate the extreme downside volatility experienced by these countries during the emerging markets currency crisis.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13518470500459808
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 12 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 313-332

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:12:y:2006:i:4:p:313-332
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJF20

    Order Information: Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/REJF20

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
    3. Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," RCER Working Papers 322, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    4. Knight, J.L. & Stachell, S.E. & Tran, K.C., 1995. "Statistical Modeling of Asymetric Risk in Asset Returns," Papers 95-3, Saskatchewan - Department of Economics.
    5. Kenneth D. West & Dongchul Cho, 1994. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Technical Working Papers 0152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Diebold & Lopez, . "Modeling Volatility Dynamics," Home Pages _062, University of Pennsylvania.
    7. D. E. Moggridge, 1995. "Comment," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 87-91, Supplemen.
    8. Brooks, Chris & Burke, Simon P., 1998. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility using conditional variance models selected by information criteria," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 273-278, December.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    12. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    13. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Conditional volatility, skewness, and kurtosis: existence, persistence, and comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1699-1737, August.
    14. Lee, John H H & King, Maxwell L, 1993. "A Locally Most Mean Powerful Based Score Test for ARCH and GARCH Regression Disturbances," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 17-27, January.
    15. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    16. Engle, Robert F & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1991. "Semiparametric ARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 345-59, October.
    17. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(04), pages 465-487, December.
    18. Stephen Satchell & Soosung Hwang, 1999. "Modelling Emerging Market Risk Premia Using Higher Moments," Working Papers wp99-17, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    19. Yancey, T. A. & Judge, G. G. & Bock, M. E., 1981. "Testing multiple equality and inequality hypothesis in economics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 249-255.
    20. Hogan, William W. & Warren, James M., 1972. "Computation of the Efficient Boundary in the E-S Portfolio Selection Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 1881-1896, September.
    21. A. W. Coats, 1995. "Comment," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 157-161, Supplemen.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:12:y:2006:i:4:p:313-332. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.