IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v262y2018i2d10.1007_s10479-016-2137-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the robustness of portfolio allocation under copula misspecification

Author

Listed:
  • Abdallah Ben Saida

    (University of Cergy-Pontoise)

  • Jean-luc Prigent

    (University of Cergy-Pontoise)

Abstract

The copula theory allows to easily model the probability distributions of random vectors by separately estimating the marginal distributions and the dependence structure of the components represented by the copula itself. Copula functions generally provide significant improvements to the financial portfolio allocation problem. However, being given the large spectrum of available copulas, the choice of the best model is rather complex. This paper investigates the copula misspecification impact on the portfolio allocation problem, which is an important risk model issue. We address this issue from the perspective of the behavioral portfolio theory through the Zakamouline (Quant Finance 14(4):699–710, 2014) approach by considering an investor allocating his wealth between a risk-free asset and a risky asset. Our main objective is to assess investors’ sensitivities to the choice of the probability of the random vector, namely both the marginal distributions and the copula function. This analysis is conducted with respect to their degrees of risk and loss aversions, for different compositions of the risky asset, and for different investment horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdallah Ben Saida & Jean-luc Prigent, 2018. "On the robustness of portfolio allocation under copula misspecification," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 631-652, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:262:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10479-016-2137-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-016-2137-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-016-2137-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-016-2137-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manfred Gilli & Enrico Schumann, 2008. "Distributed Optimisation of a Portfolio's Omega," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-17, Swiss Finance Institute.
    2. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92.
    3. Bertrand Maillet & Emmanuel Jurczenko, 2006. "Introduction to Multi-moment Asset Allocation and Pricing Models," Post-Print hal-00308991, HAL.
    4. Vikas Agarwal, 2004. "Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 63-98.
    5. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn & van Dijk, Dick, 2010. "Out-of-sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1596-1609, September.
    6. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    7. Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 130-168.
    8. Luca Riccetti, 2013. "A copula–GARCH model for macro asset allocation of a portfolio with commodities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1315-1336, June.
    9. Włodzimierz Ogryczak, 2000. "Multiple criteria linear programming model for portfolio selection," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 97(1), pages 143-162, December.
    10. Bertrand Maillet & Emmanuel Jurczenko, 2006. "Multi-moment Asset Allocation and Pricing Models," Post-Print hal-00308990, HAL.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim & Russell, Jeffrey & Watson, Mark (ed.), 2010. "Volatility and Time Series Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Robert Engle," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199549498, Decembrie.
    12. Valeri Zakamouline, 2014. "Portfolio performance evaluation with loss aversion," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 699-710, April.
    13. Bertrand, Philippe & Prigent, Jean-luc, 2011. "Omega performance measure and portfolio insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1811-1823, July.
    14. André Palma & Jean-Luc Prigent, 2009. "Standardized versus customized portfolio: a compensating variation approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 161-185, January.
    15. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    16. Genest, Christian & Rémillard, Bruno & Beaudoin, David, 2009. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: A review and a power study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 199-213, April.
    17. Hansen, Bruce E, 1994. "Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-730, August.
    18. Ayub, Usman & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali & Abbas, Qaisar, 2015. "Robust analysis for downside risk in portfolio management for a volatile stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 86-96.
    19. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    20. Bertrand Maillet & Emmanuel Jurczenko, 2006. "Multi-moment Asset Allocation and Pricing Models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00308990, HAL.
    21. Jean-Luc Prigent & Philippe Bertrand, 2011. "Omega performance measure and portfolio insurance," Post-Print hal-01833064, HAL.
    22. Annalisa Di Clemente & Claudio Romano, 2004. "Measuring and Optimizing Portfolio Credit Risk: A Copula-based Approach," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 33(3), pages 325-357, November.
    23. Bertrand Maillet & Emmanuel Jurczenko, 2006. "Introduction to Multi-moment Asset Allocation and Pricing Models," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00308991, HAL.
    24. Cass, David & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "The structure of investor preferences and asset returns, and separability in portfolio allocation: A contribution to the pure theory of mutual funds," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 122-160, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sabri Boubaker & Zhenya Liu & Yaosong Zhan, 2022. "Risk management for crude oil futures: an optimal stopping-timing approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 9-27, June.
    2. Henryk Zähle, 2022. "A concept of copula robustness and its applications in quantitative risk management," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 825-875, October.
    3. Erdinc Akyildirim & Frank J. Fabozzi & Ahmet Goncu & Ahmet Sensoy, 2022. "Statistical arbitrage in jump-diffusion models with compound Poisson processes," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1357-1371, June.
    4. E. Allevi & L. Boffino & M. E. Giuli & G. Oggioni, 2019. "Analysis of long-term natural gas contracts with vine copulas in optimization portfolio problems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 274(1), pages 1-37, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.
    2. León, Angel & Moreno, Manuel, 2017. "One-sided performance measures under Gram-Charlier distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 38-50.
    3. Caporin, Massimiliano & Costola, Michele & Jannin, Gregory & Maillet, Bertrand, 2018. "“On the (Ab)use of Omega?”," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-33.
    4. Bertrand, Philippe & Prigent, Jean-luc, 2019. "On the optimality of path-dependent structured funds: The cost of standardization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 333-350.
    5. Alexios Ghalanos & Eduardo Rossi & Giovanni Urga, 2015. "Independent Factor Autoregressive Conditional Density Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 594-616, May.
    6. David Happersberger & Harald Lohre & Ingmar Nolte, 2020. "Estimating portfolio risk for tail risk protection strategies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1107-1146, September.
    7. Carole Bernard & Massimiliano Caporin & Bertrand Maillet & Xiang Zhang, 2023. "Omega Compatibility: A Meta-analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(2), pages 493-526, August.
    8. Xun Lu & Kin Lai & Liang Liang, 2014. "Portfolio value-at-risk estimation in energy futures markets with time-varying copula-GARCH model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 219(1), pages 333-357, August.
    9. Mensah, Jones Odei & Premaratne, Gamini, 2014. "Dependence patterns among Banking Sectors in Asia: A Copula Approach," MPRA Paper 60119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mensah, Jones Odei & Premaratne, Gamini, 2018. "Dependence patterns among Asian banking sector stocks: A copula approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 357-388.
    11. Domino, Krzysztof, 2020. "Multivariate cumulants in outlier detection for financial data analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 558(C).
    12. Tawil, Dima, 2018. "Risk-adjusted performance of portfolio insurance and investors’ preferences," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 10-18.
    13. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    14. Domino, Krzysztof, 2017. "The use of the multi-cumulant tensor analysis for the algorithmic optimisation of investment portfolios," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 267-276.
    15. Liu, Xiaochun, 2015. "Modeling time-varying skewness via decomposition for out-of-sample forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 296-311.
    16. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
    17. Mukasa, Adamon N., 2018. "Technology adoption and risk exposure among smallholder farmers: Panel data evidence from Tanzania and Uganda," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 299-309.
    18. Racicot, François-Éric & Théoret, Raymond, 2019. "Hedge fund return higher moments over the business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 73-97.
    19. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-330 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Lu, Xin & Liu, Qiong & Xue, Fengxin, 2019. "Unique closed-form solutions of portfolio selection subject to mean-skewness-normalization constraints," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 6(C).
    21. Avdulaj, Krenar & Barunik, Jozef, 2015. "Are benefits from oil–stocks diversification gone? New evidence from a dynamic copula and high frequency data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 31-44.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Copulas; Portfolio allocation; Gof-test; GARCH model; Risk aversion; Loss aversion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:262:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10479-016-2137-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.