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Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View

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Cited by:

  1. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2015. "Testing the expectations hypothesis with survey forecasts: The impacts of consumer sentiment and the zero lower bound in an I(2) CVAR," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 85-101.
  2. Alex Ilek & Tanya Suchoy & Nir Klein, 2006. "Estimating the premium implicit in the yields of Treasury Bills," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 4(2), pages 53-83.
  3. Bauer, Michael & Chernov, Mikhail, 2021. "Interest rate skewness and biased beliefs," IMFS Working Paper Series 163, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  4. repec:adr:anecst:y:2001:i:62:p:07 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
  6. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 67-100, January.
  7. Bauer, Michael D. & Pflueger, Carolin E. & Sunderam, Adi, 2022. "Perceptions about monetary policy," IMFS Working Paper Series 176, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  8. Cuthbertson, Keith & Hayes, Simon & Nitzsche, Dirk, 1998. "Interest Rates in Germany and the UK: Cointegration and Error Correction Models," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(1), pages 27-43, January.
  9. Boero, G. & Torricelli, C., 1998. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis and Policy Reaction to the Term Spread: Some Comparative Evidence," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 512, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  10. Linton, Oliver & Mammen, Enno & Nielsen, Jans Perch & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2001. "Yield curve estimation by kernel smoothing methods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 185-223, November.
  11. Jason Lennard & Finn Meinecke & Solomos Solomou, 2023. "Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 844-870, August.
  12. Philippe Mueller & Andrea Vedolin & Hao Zhou, 2019. "Short-Run Bond Risk Premia," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-34, September.
  13. Brito, Ricardo D. & Duarte, Angelo José Mont' Alverne & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho, 2004. "Overreaction of yield spreads and movements of Brazilian interest ratest," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 24(1), May.
  14. Enzo Weber, 2006. "British Interest Rate Convergence Between The Us And Europe: A Recursive Cointegration Analysis," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 29-47, November.
  15. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6125 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
  17. Daniela Kubudi & José Valentim Vicente, 2016. "A Joint Model of Nominal and Real Yield Curves," Working Papers Series 452, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  18. John Cochrane, 2022. "The fiscal root of inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 22-40, July.
  19. R. Rebonato, 2018. "Predicting Returns In Us Treasuries: Do Tents Matter?," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(07), pages 1-13, November.
  20. Buncic, Daniel & Lentner, Philipp, 2016. "The term structure of interest rates in an estimated New Keynesian policy model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 126-150.
  21. Goliński, Adam, 2021. "Monetary policy at the zero lower bound: Information in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  22. Dr. Thomas Nitschka & Shajivan Satkurunathan, 2021. "Habits die hard: implications for bond and stock markets internationally," Working Papers 2021-08, Swiss National Bank.
  23. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
  24. Carlo A. Favero & Stefano W. Giglio, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure: Evidence from the Case of Italy in the EMS and the EMU Periods," Working Papers 312, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  25. Casper De Vries & Xuedong Wang & Casper G, de Vries, 2015. "Inflation, Endogenous Market Segmentation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 5421, CESifo.
  26. Bernaschi, M. & Torosantucci, L. & Uboldi, A., 2007. "Empirical evaluation of the market price of risk using the CIR model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 543-554.
  27. Christoph Berninger & Almond Stöcker & David Rügamer, 2022. "A Bayesian time‐varying autoregressive model for improved short‐term and long‐term prediction," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 181-200, January.
  28. Peter Lildholdt & Anne Vila-Wetherilt, 2004. "Anticipation Of Monetary Policy In UK Financial Markets," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 20, Royal Economic Society.
  29. Thornton, Daniel L., 2014. "Monetary policy: Why money matters (and interest rates don’t)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 202-213.
  30. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
  31. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2015. "Regression-based estimation of dynamic asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 211-244.
  32. Christopher G. Lamoureux & H. Douglas Witte, 2002. "Empirical Analysis of the Yield Curve: The Information in the Data Viewed through the Window of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1479-1520, June.
  33. Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Le, Anh & Lundblad, Christian, 2015. "Why do term structures in different currencies co-move?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 58-83.
  34. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
  35. David Barr & John Campbell, "undated". "Inflation, real interest rates and the bond market: a study of UK nominal and index-linked Government bond prices," CERF Discussion Paper Series 95-09, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  36. Salman Huseynov, 2021. "Long and short memory in dynamic term structure models," CREATES Research Papers 2021-15, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  37. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Disaster Risk and its Implications for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 20926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Grenadier, Steven R., 2010. "Stock and bond returns with Moody Investors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 867-894, December.
  39. Driessen, Joost & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo, 2005. "Testing affine term structure models in case of transaction costs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 201-232, May.
  40. Antoine Bouveret & Bruno Ducoudre, 2007. "On the Contingency of Equilibrium Exchange Rates with Time - Consistent Economic Policies," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01066080, HAL.
  41. Lassaâd Mbarek & Hardik A. Marfatia & Sonja Juko, 2018. "Time-varying Response of Treasury Yields to Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Tunisian Bond Market," Working Papers 1243, Economic Research Forum, revised 23 Oct 2018.
  42. Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica A., 2011. "The term structures of equity and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 90-113, July.
  43. Linde, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks' Macro Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11405, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  44. Thornton, Daniel L., 2006. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 511-542, March.
  45. Antonio Gargano & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2019. "Bond Return Predictability: Economic Value and Links to the Macroeconomy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 508-540, February.
  46. Pawel Milobedzki, 2010. "The Term Structure of the Polish Interbank Rates. A Note on the Symmetry of their Reversion to the Mean," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 10, pages 81-95.
  47. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 155-208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  48. T.J. Flavin & M.R. Wickens, 2003. "Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 207-231.
  49. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
  50. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  51. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2017. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data," Working Paper Series 2017-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  52. JG. Gonzalez & RW. Spencer & DT. Walz, 2000. "The term structure of interest rates and the Mexican economy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(3), pages 284-294, July.
  53. Ramchander, Sanjay & Simpson, Marc W. & Chaudhry, Mukesh K., 2005. "The influence of macroeconomic news on term and quality spreads," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 84-102, February.
  54. Diego Agudelo Rueda & Mónica Arango Arango, 2008. "La curva de rendimientos a plazo y las expectativas de tasas de interés en el mercado de renta fija en Colombia, 2002-2007," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, June.
  55. Smoluk, H. J., 1999. "Domestic variance and international comovement bonds tests of interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 247-267, March.
  56. Andreasen, Martin M & Meldrum, Andrew, 2015. "Market beliefs about the UK monetary policy life-off horizon: a no-arbitrage shadow rate term structure model approach," Bank of England working papers 541, Bank of England.
  57. Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity," Harvard Business School Working Papers 11-094, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2013.
  58. Mark E. Wohar & Robert Sollis, 2007. "Tests for Asymmetric Threshold Cointegration with an Application to the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Insight, Missouri Valley Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 1-19.
  59. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2020. "The US Term Structure and Return Volatility in Global REIT Markets," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(3), pages 84-109, September.
  60. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2023. "Decomposing Long Bond Returns: A Decentralized Theory," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 997-1026.
  61. Tillmann, Peter, 2007. "Inflation regimes in the US term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 203-223, March.
  62. Ireland, Peter N., 2015. "Monetary policy, bond risk premia, and the economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 124-140.
  63. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
  64. Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
  65. Istrefi, Klodiana & Mouabbi, Sarah, 2018. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 296-313.
  66. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 895-913.
  67. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
  68. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2009. "On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 389-425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  69. Giovanna Paladino & Gianluca Salsecci, 1999. "Spread corrigé des risques et dynamique du taux d'intérêt à long terme : une application aux marchés allemand, américain et italien," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 140(4), pages 45-62.
  70. Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2010. "EMU and European government bond market integration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2851-2860, December.
  71. Burak Saltoglu & M. Ege Yazgan, 2012. "The Role of Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Further Evidence from an Emerging Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(S5), pages 48-63, November.
  72. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
  73. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 79-138.
  74. Hanno Lustig & Andreas Stathopoulos & Adrien Verdelhan, 2013. "The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 19623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  75. Stephen A. Buser & G. Andrew Karolyi & Anthony B. Sanders, "undated". "Adjusted Forward Rates as Predictors of Future Spot Rates," Research in Financial Economics 9605, Ohio State University.
  76. Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
  77. Challe, Edouard & Le Grand, François & Ragot, Xavier, 2013. "Incomplete markets, liquidation risk, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2483-2519.
  78. John Y. Campbell & Yeung Lewis Chanb & M. Viceira, 2013. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part II, chapter 39, pages 809-848, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  79. Ravi Bansal & Hao Zhou, 2002. "Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1997-2043, October.
  80. Fabrizio Casalin, 2007. "Single Equation Models, Co-Integration and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 110, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 2007.
  81. Bams, Dennis & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2003. "Risk premia in the term structure of interest rates: a panel data approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 211-236, July.
  82. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 79-138.
  83. Dimitri Vayanos & Paul Woolley, 2023. "Asset Management as Creator of Market Inefficiency," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 51(1), pages 1-11, March.
  84. Dániel Horváth & Péter Kálmán & Zalán Kocsis & Imre Ligeti, 2014. "What factors influence the yield curve?," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 9(1), pages 28-39, March.
  85. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
  86. Renato França & Raquel M. Gaspar, 2023. "On the Bias of the Unbiased Expectation Theory," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, December.
  87. Jardet, Caroline, 2008. "Term structure anomalies: Term premium or peso-problem?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 592-608, June.
  88. Ornelas, Jose Renato Haas & Silva Jr., Antonio Francisco de Almeida, 2015. "Testing the liquidity preference hypothesis using survey forecasts," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-185.
  89. Paul Johnson, 1997. "Estimation of the specification error in the expectations theory of the term structure," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(9), pages 1239-1247.
  90. Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan, 2010. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1433-1466, April.
  91. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton & Wei Yang, 2007. "Regime Shifts in a Dynamic Term Structure Model of U.S. Treasury Bond Yields," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1669-1706, 2007 12.
  92. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2005. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 498-527, April.
  93. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Policy Affect Real Rates?," Working Papers 92-22, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  94. Riccardo Rebonato, 2017. "Affine Models With Stochastic Market Price Of Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(04), pages 1-38, June.
  95. Ray Fair, 2008. "Estimating Term Structure Equations Using Macroeconomic Variables," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2387, Yale School of Management.
  96. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
  97. Arielle Beyaert & Juan Jose Perez-Castejon, 2009. "Markov-switching models, rational expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 399-412.
  98. Ravi Bansal & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2004. "Regime Shifts, Risk Premiums in the Term Structure, and the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 396-409, October.
  99. Bulkley, George & Giordani, Paolo, 2011. "Structural breaks, parameter uncertainty, and term structure puzzles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 222-232, October.
  100. Zhang, Han & Guo, Bin & Liu, Lanbiao, 2022. "The time-varying bond risk premia in China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-76.
  101. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2003. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1079-1110, June.
  102. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 3550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  103. Andrés Schneider, 2022. "Risk‐Sharing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2331-2374, August.
  104. Mirkov, Nikola, 2012. "International Financial Transmission of the US Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers on Finance 1201, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  105. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Peso Problems and Heterogeneous Trading: Evidence from Excess Returns in Foreign Exchange and Euromarkets," Working Papers 92-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  106. Menno Middeldorp, 2011. "Central bank transparency, the accuracy of professional forecasts, and interest rate volatility," Staff Reports 496, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  107. Chryssi Giannitsarou & Andrew Scott, 2008. "Inflation Implications of Rising Government Debt," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2006, pages 393-442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  108. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Andrew T. Levin & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? evidence from long-term bond yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden," Working Paper Series 2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  109. Martin M. Andreasen & Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2016. "Bond Market Asymmetries across Recessions and Expansions: New Evidence on Risk Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2016-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  110. Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October.
  111. Martin M. Andreasen, 2021. "The New Keynesian Model and Bond Yields," CREATES Research Papers 2021-01, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  112. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2007. "Accounting for a Shift in Term Structure Behavior with No-Arbitrage and Macro-Finance Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 395-422, March.
  113. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-367, June.
  114. Konstantijn Maes, 2004. "Interest Rate Risk in the Belgian Banking Sector," Financial Stability Review, National Bank of Belgium, vol. 2(1), pages 157-179, June.
  115. Jondeau, E. & Sedillot, F., 1998. "La prevision des taux longs français et allemands a partir d'un modele a anticipations rationnelles," Working papers 55, Banque de France.
  116. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Term structure views of monetary policy under alternative models of agent expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 149-184, January.
  117. Charles Engel, 2011. "The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium," Working Papers 272011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  118. Xavier Gabaix, 2007. "Linearity-Generating Processes: A Modelling Tool Yielding Closed Forms for Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 13430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  119. Lisandro Abrego & Pär Österholm, 2010. "External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from a Bayesian VAR Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(12), pages 1788-1810, December.
  120. Olga Susana M. Monteiro & Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes, 2010. "Short- and Long-Run Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: The Portuguese Case," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(3), pages 257-280.
  121. Wachter, Jessica A. & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2009. "Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 162-178, February.
  122. Francisco Peñaranda, 2004. "Are Vector Autoregressions an Accurate Model for Dynamic Asset Allocation?," Working Papers wp2004_0419, CEMFI.
  123. Coleman, Simeon & Sirichand, Kavita, 2012. "Fractional integration and the volatility of UK interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 381-384.
  124. Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
  125. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009. "Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.
  126. Francesco Drudi & Roberto Violi, 1999. "Structure par terme des taux d'intérêt, volatilité et primes de risque : applications au marché de l'Eurolire," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 140(4), pages 21-34.
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  128. Seppälä, Juha, 2000. "The term structure of real interest rates : Theory and evidence form UK index-linked bonds," Research Discussion Papers 22/2000, Bank of Finland.
  129. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Trends in Expected Returns in Currency and Bond Markets," Working Papers 92-20, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  130. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2014. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 663-713.
  131. Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Expectations hypothesis in the context of debt crisis: Evidence from five major EU countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 243-258.
  132. Manqoba Ntshakala & Laurence Harris, 2018. "The information content of the yield spread about future inflation in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-63, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  133. Sadayuki Ono, 2007. "Term Structure Dynamics in a Monetary Economy with Learning," Discussion Papers 07/29, Department of Economics, University of York.
  134. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  135. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
  136. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
  137. Nikolay Iskrev, 2018. "Term premia dynamics in the US and Euro Area: who is leading whom?," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  138. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2004. "Interest Rate Modeling and Forecasting in India," Occasional papers 3, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
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