Sovereign bond risk premiums
Credit risk has become an important factor driving government bond returns. We therefore introduce an asset pricing model which exploits information contained in both forward interest rates and forward CDS spreads. Our empirical analysis covers euro-zone countries with German government bonds as credit risk-free assets. We construct a market factor from the first three principal components of the German forward curve as well as a common and a country-specific credit factor from the principal components of the forward CDS curves. We find that predictability of risk premiums of sovereign euro-zone bonds improves substantially if the market factor is augmented by a common and an orthogonal country-specific credit factor. While the common credit factor is significant for most countries in the sample, the country-specific factor is significant mainly for peripheral euro-zone countries. Finally, we find that during the current crisis period, market and credit risk premiums of government bonds are negative over long subintervals, a finding that we attribute to the presence of financial repression in euro-zone countries.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 (0)69 798-30050
Fax: +49 (0)69 798-30077
Web page: http://www.ifk-cfs.de/Email:
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ilmanen, Antti, 1995. " Time-Varying Expected Returns in International Bond Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 481-506, June.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2007.
"How Sovereign is Sovereign Credit Risk?,"
NBER Working Papers
13658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005.
"Bond Risk Premia,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
- Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
- Sydeny C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2005.
"Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia,"
NBER Working Papers
11703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 2011.
"Information in (and not in) the Term Structure,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 2895-2934.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Hagen, Jürgen von & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2006.
"Sovereign Risk Premiums in the European Government Bond Market,"
Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems
151, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
- Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991.
"Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," NBER Working Papers 3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:201328. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.