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Risk premia in the term structure of interest rates: a panel data approach

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  • Bams, Dennis
  • Wolff, Christian C. P.

Abstract

This paper proposes a panel data approach to modeling the risk premium in the term structure of interest rates. Specifically, we develop a fixed maturity/random time effects model that implies a time-invariant one-factor model. Our approach allows us to disentangle risk premia and unexpected excess returns, which is not possible in the standard time series approach. In addition, small sample bias is alleviated and statistical efficiency improved. Our results allow for interesting inferences about maturity-specific effects in the term structure. First, the expectations hypothesis is soundly rejected for our full data panel of U.S. Treasury securities. Second, a considerable degree of mean reversion is present in the risk premia. Third, our findings shed new light on the magnitude of the slope coefficient in regressions of the yield onto the forward curve.
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Suggested Citation

  • Bams, Dennis & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2003. "Risk premia in the term structure of interest rates: a panel data approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 211-236, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:13:y:2003:i:3:p:211-236
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Melino, Angelo, 1988. " The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence and Theory," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(4), pages 335-366.
    2. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
    3. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1988. "The Information in the Term Structure: Some Further Results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 307-314, October-D.
    4. Jondeau, Eric & Ricart, Roland, 1999. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: tests on US, German, French, and UK Euro-rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 725-750, October.
    5. Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, August.
    6. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-799, September.
    7. Campbell, John Y, 1986. " A Defense of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 183-193, March.
    8. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    9. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    10. Pham, Toan M., 1998. "Estimation of the term structure of interest rates: an international perspective," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(2-3), pages 265-283, September.
    11. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lewis, Karen K., 1994. "Do stationary risk premia explain it all?: Evidence from the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 285-318, April.
    12. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
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    15. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December.
    16. Hamburger, Michael J & Platt, Elliott N, 1975. "The Expectations Hypothesis and the Efficiency of the Treasury Bill Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(2), pages 190-199, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Harris, 2004. "The rational expectations hypothesis and the cross-section of bond yields," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 105-112.
    2. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2015. "The expectations hypothesis and decoupling of short- and long-term US interest rates: A pairwise approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 301-313.
    3. Balázs Romhányi, 2005. "A learning hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Macroeconomics 0503001, EconWPA.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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