IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v47y2022ipas1544612321004955.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-varying pricing of risk in sovereign bond futures returns

Author

Listed:
  • Malinská, Barbora

Abstract

We examine time-varying pricing of risk in bond futures excess returns. We provide evidence that the predictability is significantly dynamic and increases during crisis period. We detect realized volatility and realized kurtosis to carry valuable information for returns on the U.S. market which is not priced in traditional predictors. Whereas the realized volatility reveals to have negative effect on next-day excess returns, effect of realized kurtosis is switching from positive effect in crisis to negative values in calm periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Malinská, Barbora, 2022. "Time-varying pricing of risk in sovereign bond futures returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:47:y:2022:i:pa:s1544612321004955
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2021.102531
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612321004955
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102531?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fujiwara, Ippei & Körber, Lena Mareen & Nagakura, Daisuke, 2013. "Asymmetry in government bond returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3218-3226.
    2. Wright, Jonathan H. & Zhou, Hao, 2009. "Bond risk premia and realized jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2333-2345, December.
    3. Jondeau, Eric & Zhang, Qunzi & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2019. "Average skewness matters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 29-47.
    4. Andersen, Torben G. & Dobrev, Dobrislav & Schaumburg, Ernst, 2012. "Jump-robust volatility estimation using nearest neighbor truncation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(1), pages 75-93.
    5. Liu, Lily Y. & Patton, Andrew J. & Sheppard, Kevin, 2015. "Does anything beat 5-minute RV? A comparison of realized measures across multiple asset classes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 293-311.
    6. Amaya, Diego & Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Vasquez, Aurelio, 2015. "Does realized skewness predict the cross-section of equity returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 135-167.
    7. Cai, Zongwu, 2007. "Trending time-varying coefficient time series models with serially correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 163-188, January.
    8. Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
    9. Fama, Eugene F., 1976. "Forward rates as predictors of future spot rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 361-377, October.
    10. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    11. Lin Peng & Turan G. Bali, 2006. "Is there a risk-return trade-off? Evidence from high-frequency data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1169-1198.
    12. Guojin Chen & Jie Ding & Xiangqin Zhao, 2019. "A lottery-preference-based explanation of realized kurtosis puzzle in Chinese stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(50), pages 5466-5481, October.
    13. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December.
    14. Kinateder, Harald & Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2019. "Sovereign bond return prediction with realized higher moments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 53-73.
    15. Viceira, Luis M., 2012. "Bond risk, bond return volatility, and the term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 97-117.
    16. repec:csg:ajrcwp:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March.
    18. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    20. Pilar Abad & Alfonso Novales, 2004. "Volatility transmission across the term structure of swap markets: international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 1045-1058.
    21. Turan G. Bali & Lin Peng, 2006. "Is there a risk–return trade‐off? Evidence from high‐frequency data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1169-1198, December.
    22. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02505861, HAL.
    2. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-02505861, HAL.
    3. Riza Demirer & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Risk aversion and the predictability of crude oil market volatility: A forecasting experiment with random forests," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(8), pages 1755-1767, August.
    4. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim & Patton, Andrew J. & Quaedvlieg, Rogier, 2016. "Exploiting the errors: A simple approach for improved volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 1-18.
    6. Chorro, Christophe & Ielpo, Florian & Sévi, Benoît, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Elie Bouri & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Forecasting Realized Volatility of Bitcoin: The Role of the Trade War," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 29-53, January.
    8. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    9. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Forecasting realized oil-price volatility: The role of financial stress and asymmetric loss," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    10. Lee, Hwang Hee & Hyun, Jung-Soon, 2019. "The asymmetric effect of equity volatility on credit default swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 125-136.
    11. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Todorova, Neda, 2017. "Volatility forecasting of non-ferrous metal futures: Covariances, covariates or combinations?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 228-247.
    12. repec:uts:finphd:39 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Georgiana-Denisa Banulescu, 2019. "Do High-frequency-based Measures Improve Conditional Covariance Forecasts?," Post-Print hal-03331122, HAL.
    14. Bu, Ruijun & Hizmeri, Rodrigo & Izzeldin, Marwan & Murphy, Anthony & Tsionas, Mike, 2023. "The contribution of jump signs and activity to forecasting stock price volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    15. Dimos Kambouroudis & David McMillan & Katerina Tsakou, 2019. "Forecasting Realized Volatility: The role of implied volatility, leverage effect, overnight returns and volatility of realized volatility," Working Papers 2019-03, Swansea University, School of Management.
    16. Matteo Bonato & Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Investor Happiness and Predictability of the Realized Volatility of Oil Price," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-11, May.
    17. repec:uts:finphd:38 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Sévi, Benoît, 2014. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 643-659.
    19. Ubukata, Masato & Watanabe, Toshiaki, 2015. "Evaluating the performance of futures hedging using multivariate realized volatility," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 148-171.
    20. Trucíos, Carlos, 2019. "Forecasting Bitcoin risk measures: A robust approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 836-847.
    21. Sévi, Benoît, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the downside risk-return trade-off at daily frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 189-197.
    22. Kinateder, Harald & Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2019. "Sovereign bond return prediction with realized higher moments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 53-73.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:47:y:2022:i:pa:s1544612321004955. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.