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Asymmetry in government bond returns

  • Daisuke Nagakura
  • Lena Mareen Korber
  • Ippei Fujiwara

Is there asymmetry in the distribution of government bond returns in developed countries? Can asymmetries be predicted using financial and macroeconomic variables? To answer the first question, we provide evidence for asymmetry in government bond returns in particular for short maturities. This finding has important implications for modelling and forecasting government bond returns. For example, widely used models for yield curve analysis such as the affine term structure model assume symmetrically distributed innovations. To answer the second question, we find that liquidity in government bond markets predicts the coefficient of skewness with a positive sign, meaning that the probability of a large and negative excess return is more likely in a less liquid market. In addition, a positive realized return is associated with a negative coefficient of skewness, or a small probability of a large andnegative return in the future.

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File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/ajrc/wpapers/2013/201301.pdf
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Paper provided by Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series AJRC Working Papers with number 1301.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:csg:ajrcwp:1301
Contact details of provider: Postal: Canberra ACT 2601
Phone: (61-2) 6249 3780
Fax: (61-2) 6249 3941
Web page: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/research_units/ajrc/
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