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The term structure of interest rates across frequencies

Author

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  • Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin
  • Gerlach, Stefan

Abstract

This paper tests the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of interest rates in US data, using spectral regression techniques that allow us to consider different frequency bands. We find a positive relation between the term spread and the change in the long-term interest rate in a frequency band of 6 months to 4 years, whereas the relation is negative at higher and lower frequencies. We confirm that the variance of term premia relative to expected changes in long-term interest rates dominates at high and low frequencies, leading the EH to be rejected in those bands but not in the intermediate frequency band. JEL Classification: C22, E43

Suggested Citation

  • Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "The term structure of interest rates across frequencies," Working Paper Series 976, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008976
    Note: 2721763
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp976.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sargent, Thomas J, 1972. "Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 74-97, Part I Fe.
    2. Rodney Dobell & Thomas Sargent, 1969. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 2(1), pages 65-77, February.
    3. Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2012. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 241-272, February.
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    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
    6. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April.
    7. Cargill, Thomas F & Meyer, Robert A, Jr, 1972. "A Spectral Approach to Estimating the Distributed Lag Relationship between Long and Short Term Interest Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 13(2), pages 223-238, June.
    8. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    9. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
    10. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    11. Bennett T. McCallum, 2005. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 91(Fall), pages 1-21.
    12. C. W. J. Granger & H. J. B. Rees, 1968. "Spectral Analysis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 35(1), pages 67-76.
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    Cited by:

    1. Donati, Paola & Donati, Francesco, 2008. "Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve under Model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 917, European Central Bank.
    2. Anna Florio, 2016. "The central bank as shaper and observer of events: The case of the yield spread," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 320-346, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations theory of the term structure; frequency domain; interest rates; spectral regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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