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Testing the long-run implications of the expectation hypothesis using cointegration techniques with structural change

This paper investigates whether or not multivariate cointegrated process with structural change can describe the Brazilian term structure of interest rate data from 1995 to 2006. In this work the break point and the number of cointegrated vector are assumed to be known. The estimated model has four regimes. Only three of them are statistically different. The first starts at the beginning of the sample and goes until September of 1997. The second starts at October of 1997 until December of 1998. The third starts at January of 1999 and goes until the end of the sample. It is used monthly data. Models that allows for some similarities across the regimes are also estimated and tested. The models are estimated using the Generalized Reduced-Rank Regressions developed by Hansen (2003). All imposed restrictions can be tested using likelihood ratio test with standard asymptotic 1 qui-squared distribution. The results of the paper show evidence in favor of the long run implications of the expectation hypothesis for Brazil.

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File URL: http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace/bitstream/10438/2181/1/TD+175+Pedro+Valls.pdf
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Paper provided by Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 175.

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Date of creation: 26 Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:175
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  1. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2003. "Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 261-295, June.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  3. Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Lima, Alexandre Maia Correia & Issler, João Victor, 2003. "A Hipótese das Expectativas na Estrutura a Termo de Juros no Brasil: Uma Aplicação de Modelos de Valor Presente," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 57(4), October.
  6. Gallmeyer, Michael F. & Hollifield, Burton & Zin, Stanley E., 2005. "Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 921-950, July.
  7. Johansen, Soren & Swensen, Anders Rygh, 1999. "Testing exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 73-91, November.
  8. Søren Johansen & Anders Rygh Swensen, 2003. "More on Testing Exact Rational Expectations in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models: Restricted Drift Terms," Discussion Papers 348, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  9. Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2243-2265, September.
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