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Un Contraste Alternativo De La Hipótesis De Las Expectativas En Swaps De Tipos De Interés

  • Pilar Abad Romero
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    En este trabajo se contrasta la hipótesis de las expectativas (HE) sobre la estructura temporal (ETTI) obtenida con datos de swaps de tipos de interés (IRS) nominados en marco alemán, dólar USA y yen japonés. La evidencia aportada rechaza el cumplimiento de las implicaciones de la HE sobre las relaciones de equilibrio a largo plazo entre las rentabilidades de esta ETTI. Posteriormente, se propone un nuevo marco sobre el que contrastar la HE, distinguiendo entre las implicaciones sobre los componentes permanentes-comunes y sobre los transitorios-específicos de las rentabilidades que forman la ETTI. En este contexto, la evidencia presentada está a favor de la HE.

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    File URL: http://webX06.webs.uvigo.es/sites/default/files/wp0306.pdf
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    Paper provided by Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada in its series Working Papers with number 0306.

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    Length: 22 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:vig:wpaper:0306
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    Web page: http://webx06.webs.uvigo.es/
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    1. Dominguez, Emilio & Novales, Alfonso, 2000. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in Eurodeposits," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 713-736, October.
    2. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April.
    3. Eliseo Navarro & Juan M. Nave, 1997. "A two-factor duration model for interest rate risk management," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(1), pages 55-74, January.
    4. Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    5. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
    6. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February.
    7. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Bradley, Michael G. & Lumpkin, Stephen A., 1992. "The Treasury Yield Curve as a Cointegrated System," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(03), pages 449-463, September.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    11. Alfonso Novales & Pilar Abad, 2002. "Risk Premia in the Term Structure of Swaps in Pesetas," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0219, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    12. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. " An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
    13. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Michaely, Roni, 1990. " The Structure of Spot Rates and Immunization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 629-42, June.
    14. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January.
    15. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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