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Cointegration and German bond yields

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  • Jurgen Wolters

Abstract

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure implies that interest rates of different maturities are driven by one common stochastic trend. Using the Johansen multivariate cointegration analysis one finds that for seven German bond yields at least two common stochastic trends exist. These trends may be interpreted as capturing a level and a slope effect. The results are equivalent to the fact that six spreads contain five independent cointegration vectors. For this situation an error correction model is quite well supported by the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Jurgen Wolters, 1998. "Cointegration and German bond yields," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(8), pages 497-502.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:5:y:1998:i:8:p:497-502
    DOI: 10.1080/135048598354429
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Melino, Angelo, 1988. " The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence and Theory," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(4), pages 335-366.
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    7. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2006. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the European Union," Working Papers 0611, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    2. Till Strohsal & Enzo Weber, 2014. "Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 1983-1997, November.
    3. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2008. "The term structure of interest rates in the 12 newest EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 479-490.
    4. Bauer, Dietmar & Wagner, Martin, 2009. "Using subspace algorithm cointegration analysis: Simulation performance and application to the term structure," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1954-1973, April.
    5. Ayşen ARAÇ, 2015. "Nonlinear Dynamics in Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 23(26).
    6. Jorge de Andrés Sánchez, 2004. "Un Análisis de la Curva de Rendimientos en el Mercado de Deuda Pública Española a Medio y Largo Plazo en el Período 1993-2004," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 3, pages 1-30, October.
    7. Nehls, Hiltrud, 2006. "Der Zins-Pass-Through deutscher Geschäftsbankengruppen," RWI Schriften, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, volume 78, number 78.

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