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A New Interpretation of the Exchange Rate - Yield Differential Nexus

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Listed:
  • Andrew Wood
  • Jerry Coakley
  • Ana-Maria Fuertes

Abstract

Empirical studies have had difficulty in establishing the long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real yield differentials predicted by sticky price exchange rate models. We revisit this issue in a nonstationary panel regression framework. This facilitates estimation of a long-run parameter even when the underlying relation-ship is subject to permanent shocks or the variables do not cointegrate. The slope coefficient estimate from a sample of 23 industrialized countries 1973M1-1998M12 has the correct sign and is statistically significant for both short and long-term yields. These results support fundamentals-based models of exchange rate behaviour while permitting real factors to play a role. Moreover, they indicate that capital markets integration is more advanced than hitherto believed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Wood & Jerry Coakley & Ana-Maria Fuertes, 2003. "A New Interpretation of the Exchange Rate - Yield Differential Nexus," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 160, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf3:160
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272.
    2. Peter Phillips & Hyungsik Moon, 2000. "Nonstationary panel data analysis: an overview of some recent developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 263-286.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonstationary panels; bootstrap; financial market integration; permanent shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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