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Explaining the Term Structure of Interest Rates. The GKO Market from 1996 to 1998

  • Kryukovskaya Olga

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    The project is devoted to the analysis of the term structure of interest rates at the Russian GKO market during the period from 1996 to 1998. The sources of inefficiency of the market operation that led to the failure of the pure expectations hypothesis are analyzed. The model with conditional heteroskedasticity with several regimes for unconditional variance quite well describes the one-month GKO series and captures different behavior of the GKO volatility at the initial and final subperiods that were rich in various political and economic shocks.

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    Paper provided by EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS in its series EERC Working Paper Series with number 03-07e.

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    Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:03-07e
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    1. Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, 08.
    2. Rabemananjara, R & Zakoian, J M, 1993. "Threshold Arch Models and Asymmetries in Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 31-49, Jan.-Marc.
    3. McCulloch, J Huston, 1975. "The Tax-Adjusted Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 811-30, June.
    4. Domowitz, Ian & Glen, Jack & Madhavan, Ananth, 1998. "Country and Currency Risk Premia in an Emerging Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(02), pages 189-216, June.
    5. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1996. "On Biases in Tests of the Expecations Hypothesis of the Term Structure Of Interest Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2000. "The Evolution of Stock Markets in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 456-472, September.
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