Heavy tails of OLS
Suppose the tails of the noise distribution in a regression exhibit power law behavior. Then the distribution of the OLS regression estimator inherits this tail behavior. This is relevant for regressions involving financial data. We derive explicit finite sample expressions for the tail probabilities of the distribution of the OLS estimator. These are useful for inference. Simulations for medium sized samples reveal considerable deviations of the coefficient estimates from their true values, in line with our theoretical formulas. The formulas provide a benchmark for judging the observed highly variable cross country estimates of the expectations coefficient in yield curve regressions.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989.
"Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View,"
NBER Working Papers
3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
- Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Sack, Brian, 2000. "Does the fed act gradually? A VAR analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 229-256, August.
- Fama, Eugene F., 1976. "Forward rates as predictors of future spot rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 361-377, October.
- Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971 Elsevier.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986.
"The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1985. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blattberg, Robert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1971. "Regression with Non-Gaussian Stable Disturbances: Some Sampling Results," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 501-10, May.
- Hallin, Marc & Swan, Yvik & Verdebout, Thomas & Veredas, David, 2013. "One-step R-estimation in linear models with stable errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 195-204.
- Feige, Edgar L & Swamy, P A V B, 1974. "A Random Coefficient Model of the Demand for Liquid Assets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 241-52, May.
- Basrak, Bojan & Davis, Richard A. & Mikosch, Thomas, 2002. "Regular variation of GARCH processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 95-115, May.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 1999.
"Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: a cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying,"
93, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
- Jurecková, Jana & Koenker, Roger & Portnoy, Stephen, 2001. "Tail behavior of the least-squares estimator," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 377-384, December.
- Chow, Gregory C., 1984. "Random and changing coefficient models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 21, pages 1213-1245 Elsevier.
- Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September.
- Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000.
"Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
- Butler, Richard J, et al, 1990. "Robust and Partially Adaptive Estimation of Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 321-27, May.
- Andrews, Beth & Davis, Richard A., 2013. "Model identification for infinite variance autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 222-234.
- Nolan, John P. & Ojeda-Revah, Diana, 2013. "Linear and nonlinear regression with stable errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 186-194.
- He, Xuming, et al, 1990. "Tail Behavior of Regression Estimators and Their Breakdown Points," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1195-1214, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:172:y:2013:i:2:p:205-221. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.