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Citations for "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations"

by James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson

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  1. Ferrara, L. & Marcellino, M. & Mogliani, M., 2012. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," Working papers 383, Banque de France.
  2. Donald S. Allen & Meenakshi Pasupathy, 1997. "A state space forecasting model with fiscal and monetary control," Working Papers 1997-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Aiolfi, Marco & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 31-53.
  4. Serena Ng & Timothy Vogelsang, 2002. "Analysis Of Vector Autoregressions In The Presence Of Shifts In Mean," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 353-381.
  5. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary, 2011. "Regime-Switching Cointegration," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-36, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  6. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-43, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Maheu, John M. & Song, Yong, 2014. "A new structural break model, with an application to Canadian inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 144-160.
  8. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James C., 2008. "Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 10372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Bruce E. Hansen, 1998. "Testing for Structural Change in Conditional Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 310., Boston College Department of Economics.
  10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & L. Vanessa Smith, 2008. "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," Staff Reports 317, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sehkposyan, 2013. "Evaluating Predictive Densities of US Output Growth and Inflation in a Large Macroeconomic Data Set," Working Papers 689, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  12. Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2005. "Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: theory and application," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability," International Finance 0503006, EconWPA.
  14. Arruda, Elano Ferreira & Ferreira, Roberto Tatiwa & Castelar, Ivan, 2011. "Modelos lineares e não lineares da curva de Phillips para previsão da taxa de Inflação no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 65(3), August.
  15. Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira & Herman Bierens & Ivan Castelar, 2005. "Forecasting Quarterly Brazilian GDP Growth Rate With Linear and NonLinear Diffusion Index Models," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 6(3), pages 261-292.
  16. Leandro M. Magnusson & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2011. "Identification Using Stability Restrictions," Working Papers 1116, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
  17. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," SIRE Discussion Papers 2014-021, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  18. Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2004. "Testing for Volatility Changes in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 833-839, August.
  19. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Market timing and return prediction under model instability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 495-510, December.
  20. Giordani, Paolo & Villani, Mattias, 2009. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series With Locally Adaptive Signal Extraction," Working Paper Series 234, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  21. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "On the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 18-26.
  23. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Housing and the Great Depression," Working papers 2012-47, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  24. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2012. "Unit root testing under a local break in trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 140-167.
  25. Harris, David & Leybourne, Stephen J & Taylor, A M Robert, 2016. "Tests of the Co-integration Rank in VAR Models in the Presence of a Possible Break in Trend at an Unknown Point," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 15847, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
  26. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Hartigan, Luke, 2016. "Is the Assumption of Linearity in Factor Models too Strong in Practice?," Working Papers 2072/261531, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  27. Franz Ruch & Mehmet Balcilar & Mampho P. Modise & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Forecasting Core Inflation: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 201543, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  28. Gavin, William T. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Pakko, Michael R., 2009. "Inflation Risk And Optimal Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(S1), pages 58-75, May.
  29. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2016. "Forecasting in Economics and Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 11354, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Aue, Alexander & Horváth, Lajos & Reimherr, Matthew L., 2009. "Delay times of sequential procedures for multiple time series regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 174-190, April.
  31. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
  32. Adriatik Hoxha, 2016. "The Wage-Price Setting Behavior: Comparing The Evidence from EU28 and EMU," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 61-102, June.
  33. Dées, Stéphane & Holly, Sean & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa, 2007. "Long run macroeconomic relations in the global economy," Working Paper Series 0750, European Central Bank.
  34. Vasiliki Bozani, 2011. "NAIRU, Unemployment and Post Keynesian Economics," Working Papers 1104, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  35. Gutierrez, Luciano & Piras, Francesco, 2014. "A global VAR model for the analysis of wheat export prices," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182723, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  36. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "An Alternative Bayesian Approach to Structural Breaks in Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-023/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  37. Ghassen El Montasser & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "The Time-Series Linkages between US Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices," Working Papers 201519, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  38. Maheu, John & Song, Yong, 2012. "A new structural break model with application to Canadian inflation forecasting," MPRA Paper 36870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  39. Nan Cai & Zongwu Cai & Ying Fang & Qiuhua Xu, 2015. "Forecasting major Asian exchange rates using a new semiparametric STAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 407-426, February.
  40. Achim Zeileis & Torsten Hothorn, 2013. "A toolbox of permutation tests for structural change," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 931-954, November.
  41. Raul Ramos & Miquel Clar & Jordi Suri?ach, 1998. "Specialization in Europe and asymmetric shocks: Potential risks of EMU," ERSA conference papers ersa98p86, European Regional Science Association.
  42. Rickard Sandberg, 2016. "Testing for unit roots in nonlinear heterogeneous panels with smoothly changing trends: an application to Scandinavian unemployment rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1053-1083, November.
  43. David F. Hendry & Kirstin Hubrich, 2011. "Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Combining Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 216-227, April.
  44. Michael A. Flor, 2014. "Post Reunification Economic Fluctuations in Germany: A Real Business Cycle Interpretation," Discussion Paper Series 324, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
  45. Zeileis, Achim & Leisch, Friedrich & Kleiber, Christian & Hornik, Kurt, 2002. "Monitoring structural change in dynamic econometric models," Technical Reports 2002,07, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  46. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Prior Elicitation in Multiple Change-point Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/26, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  47. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
  48. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
  49. Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2007. "Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread," Working Paper Series 0802, European Central Bank.
  50. Branch, William A., 2007. "Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 245-276, January.
  51. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002. "Forecasting EMU Macroeconomic Variables," CEPR Discussion Papers 3529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  52. Oliveira, Fernando Nascimento de, 2016. "Financial and Real Sector Leading Indicators of Recessions in Brazil Using Probabilistic Models," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 70(3), September.
  53. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
  54. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2016. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," MPRA Paper 75424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  55. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2003. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-01, CIRANO.
  56. Giammarino, Flavia & Barrieu, Pauline, 2009. "A semiparametric model for the systematic factors of portfolio credit risk premia," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 655-670, September.
  57. Luca Benati & Thomas A. Lubik, 2013. "The time-varying Beveridge curve," Working Paper 13-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  58. Mestre, Ricardo & McAdam, Peter, 2008. "Is forecasting with large models informative? Assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts," Working Paper Series 0950, European Central Bank.
  59. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
  60. Jorge Selaive & Vicente Tuesta, 2003. "Net Foreign Assets And Imperfect Financial Integration: An Empirical Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 252, Central Bank of Chile.
  61. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2012. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," Staff Working Papers 12-21, Bank of Canada.
  62. Czinkota, Thomas, 2012. "Das Halteproblem bei Strukturbrüchen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen
    [The Halting Problem applied to Structural Breaks in Financial Time Series]
    ," MPRA Paper 37072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  63. Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  64. Kirstin Hubrich, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 230, Society for Computational Economics.
  65. Benati, Luca, 2006. "Drift and Breaks in Labour Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 5801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  66. Ghosal, Vivek, 2007. "Regime Shift in Antitrust," MPRA Paper 5460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  67. Serwa, Dobromil, 2010. "Larger crises cost more: Impact of banking sector instability on output growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1463-1481, December.
  68. D'Agostino, Antonello & Surico, Paolo, 2011. "A Century of Inflation Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 8292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  69. Don H. Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  70. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "G-7 Inflation Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 3283, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  71. Giuseppe Cavaliere & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "Testing for unit roots in the presence of a possible break in trend and non-stationary volatility," Discussion Papers 09/05, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  72. Aaron Smallwood, 2004. "Joint Tests for Long Memory and Non-linearity: The Case of Purchasing Power Parity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 23, Society for Computational Economics.
  73. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2012. "Structural Breaks and Predictive Regressions Models of South African Equity Premium," Working Papers 201209, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  74. J. Huston McCulloch, 2005. "The Kalman Foundations of Adaptive Least Squares: Applications to Unemployment and Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 239, Society for Computational Economics.
  75. Ghosal, Vivek, 2006. "Discovering Cartels: Dynamic Interrelationships between Civil and Criminal Antitrust Investigations," MPRA Paper 5499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  76. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2015. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn’t in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 207-229, 08.
  77. Craig, Lee A. & Holt, Matthew T., 2008. "Mechanical refrigeration, seasonality, and the hog-corn cycle in the United States: 1870-1940," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 30-50, January.
  78. Byrne, Joseph P. & Kortava, Ekaterina & MacDonald, Ronald, 2013. "A new approach to tests of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 654-667.
  79. Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A Method for Taking Models to the Data," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 421, Boston College Department of Economics.
  80. Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 488, Society for Computational Economics.
  81. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 990, CESifo Group Munich.
  82. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2011. "Bayesian inference in a time varying cointegration model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(2), pages 210-220.
  83. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and estimating multiple change-point models with an unknown number of change points," Staff Reports 196, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  84. Jon Huntley & Eric Miller, 2009. "An Evaluation of CBO Forecasts: Working Paper 2009-02," Working Papers 41195, Congressional Budget Office.
  85. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
  86. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  87. Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2007. "A time-varying "natural" rate of interest for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1768-1784, October.
  88. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  89. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
  90. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
  91. Smith, Ron, 2009. "EMU and the Lucas Critique," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 744-750, July.
  92. Cătălin Stărică & Clive Granger, 2005. "Nonstationarities in Stock Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 503-522, August.
  93. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
  94. Aastveit, Knut Are & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11558, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  95. Kwakwa, Paul Adjei, 2014. "Energy-growth nexus and energy demand in Ghana: A review of empirical studies," MPRA Paper 54971, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Apr 2014.
  96. Soosung Hwang & Steve E. Satchell & Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2004. "How Persistent is Volatility? An Answer with Stochastic Volatility Models with Markov Regime Switching State Equations," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 198, Econometric Society.
  97. Miguel, Belmonte & Gary, Koop & Dimitris, Korobilis, 2011. "Hierarchical shrinkage in time-varying parameter models," MPRA Paper 31827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  98. Cléaud, G. & Lemoine, M. & Pionnier, P.-A., 2013. "Which size and evolution of the government expenditure multiplier in France (1980-2010)?," Working papers 469, Banque de France.
  99. Koo, Bonsoo & Seo, Myung Hwan, 2015. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: Implications for forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 166-181.
  100. Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
  101. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Shinhye Chang & Mehmet Balcilar & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Persistence of precious metal prices: a fractional integration approach with structural breaks," NCID Working Papers 06/2015, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
  102. Pulapre Balakrishnan & Mausumi Das & M. Parameswaran, 2015. "The Mechanism of Long-Term Growth in India," Working Papers id:6414, eSocialSciences.
  103. Jörg Polzehl & Vladimir Spokoiny & Catalin Starica, 2006. "When did the 2001 recession really start?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-032, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  104. Jim Malley & Ulrich Woitek, 2009. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Estimated Hybrid RBC Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 2626, CESifo Group Munich.
  105. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2013. "Early Contract Renegotiation: An Analysis of US Labor Contracts, 1970-1995," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(4), pages 825-842.
  106. Boivin, Jean & Giannoni, Marc P. & Mihov, Ilian, 2006. "Sticky prices and monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated US data," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  107. Nii Ayi Armah & Norman Swanson, 2010. "Seeing Inside the Black Box: Using Diffusion Index Methodology to Construct Factor Proxies in Large Scale Macroeconomic Time Series Environments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 476-510.
  108. Philipp Wegmueller, 2015. "International Evidence on Time-Variation in Trend Labor Productivity Growth," Diskussionsschriften dp1602, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
  109. Elliott, Graham & Mueller, Ulrich K., 2004. "Optimally Testing General Breaking Processes in Linear Time Series Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt58n33447, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  110. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 78, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  111. Kim, Kun Ho, 2011. "Density forecasting through disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 394-412.
  112. Boivin, Jean, 2006. "Has U.S. Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1149-1173, August.
  113. Groen, Jan J J & Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon, 2009. "Multivariate methods for monitoring structural change," Bank of England working papers 369, Bank of England.
  114. Koop, Gary & Gefang, Deborah & Campolieti, Michele, 2012. "Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows: Evidence from the US and Canada," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-69, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  115. Wang, Cindy Shin-Huei & Bauwens, Luc & Hsiao, Cheng, 2013. "Forecasting a long memory process subject to structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 171-184.
  116. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  117. Robert Ingenito & Bharat Trehan, 1996. "Using monthly data to predict quarterly output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-11.
  118. Sandberg, Rickard, 2016. "Trends, unit roots, structural changes, and time-varying asymmetries in U.S. macroeconomic data: the Stock and Watson data re-examined," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 699-713.
  119. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2004. "Cyclical Uncertainty And Physical Investment Decisions," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 89, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  120. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "International Stock Return Predictability: Is the Role of U.S. Time-Varying?," Working Papers 201524, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  121. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-101, 01.
  122. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 1210, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  123. McCracken, Michael W. & Ng, Serena, 2015. "FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Working Papers 2015-12, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 20 Aug 2015.
  124. Kocenda, Evzen, 2000. "Detecting Structural Breaks in Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2546, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  125. Luke Hartigan, 2015. "Changes in the Factor Structure of the U.S. Economy: Permanent Breaks or Business Cycle Regimes?," Discussion Papers 2015-17, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  126. Pesaran, H.M. & Timmermann, A., 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0306, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  127. Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: The Case of the US and a Set of Inflation Targeting Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 2-29, January.
  128. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2004. "On the Time Variations of US Monetary Policy: Who is right?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 96, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  129. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
  130. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers 80, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  131. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen, 2013. "Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 101-123, January.
  132. Morten O. Ravn & Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola, 2005. "Markov switching causality and the money-output relationship," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 665-683.
  133. Boonsoo Koo & Myung Hwan Seo, 2013. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: implications for forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  134. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2012. "Have structural changes eliminated the out-of-sample ability of financial variables to forecast real activity after the mid-1980s? Evidence from the Canadian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(30), pages 3965-3985, October.
  135. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Signaling asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Research Discussion Papers 7/2012, Bank of Finland.
  136. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Nityananda Sarkar, 2015. "The Effect of Inflation on Inflation Uncertainty in the G7 Countries: A Double Threshold GARCH Model," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 7(1), pages 34-50, April.
  137. Christian Hellwig & Laura Veldkamp, 2006. "Knowing what others Know: Coordination motives in information acquisition," 2006 Meeting Papers 361, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  138. Massimo Guidolin, 2005. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Working Papers 2005-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  139. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2008. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Working Papers 2008-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  140. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Evaluating changes in the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 827-842, May.
  141. Nektarios Aslanidis & Luke Hartigan, 2016. "Is the Assumption of Linearity in Factor Models too Strong in Practice?," Discussion Papers 2016-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  142. Inoue, Atsushi & Jin, Lu & Rossi, Barbara, 2017. "Rolling window selection for out-of-sample forecasting with time-varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 55-67.
  143. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 1237, CESifo Group Munich.
  144. Chew Lian Chua & Chin Nam Low, 2007. "Permanent Structural Change in the US Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2007n22, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
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This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.