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Citations for "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations"

by James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson

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  1. Kurt Hornik & Friedrich Leisch & Christian Kleiber & Achim Zeileis, 2005. "Monitoring structural change in dynamic econometric models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 99-121.
  2. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Working Papers 819, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  3. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting using stochastic search variable selection in a VAR subject to breaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 326-347, April.
  4. Jochmann, Markus, 2010. "Modeling U.S. Inflation Dynamics: A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-06, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  5. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2009. "On the Unstable Relationship between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 15008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. D'Agostino, Antonello & Gambetti, Luca & Giannone, Domenico & Giannone, Domenico, 2009. "Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/09, Central Bank of Ireland.
  8. Li, Hong, 2008. "Estimation and testing of Euler equation models with time-varying reduced-form coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 425-448, January.
  9. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011. "UK macroeconomic forecasting with many predictors: Which models forecast best and when do they do so?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2307-2318, September.
  10. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Forecast pooling for short time series of macroeconomic variables," Working Papers 212, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  11. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 06-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  12. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Christian Hellwig, 2005. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition (March 2007, with Laura Veldkamp)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 369, UCLA Department of Economics.
  14. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting: An Illustration with German Industrial Production and Linear Models," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 57, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  15. Christian Hellwig & Laura Veldkamp, 2006. "Knowing what others Know: Coordination motives in information acquisition," 2006 Meeting Papers 361, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  17. BAUWENS, Luc & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen VK, . "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," CORE Discussion Papers RP 2403, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  18. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  19. Eo, Yunjong, 2012. "Bayesian Inference about the Types of Structural Breaks When There are Many Breaks," Working Papers 2012-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  20. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2012. "Unit root testing under a local break in trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 140-167.
  21. Nii Ayi Armah & Norman Swanson, 2010. "Seeing Inside the Black Box: Using Diffusion Index Methodology to Construct Factor Proxies in Large Scale Macroeconomic Time Series Environments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 476-510.
  22. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 08, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  23. Tae-Hwy Lee & Weiping Yang, 2014. "Money-Income Granger-Causality in Quantiles," Working Papers 201423, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
  24. Kevin J. Lansing, 2006. "Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," 2006 Meeting Papers 758, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  25. Koop, Gary & Gefang, Deborah & Campolieti, Michele, 2012. "Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows: Evidence from the US and Canada," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-69, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  26. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2016. "Adaptive models and heavy tails," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1052, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  27. Pedro L. Valls Pereira, 2004. "How Persistent is Volatility? An Answer with Stochastic Volatility Models with Markov Regime Switching State Equations," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_59, Finance Lab, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  28. repec:hhs:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2009. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 20125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  30. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2016. "Choosing Prior Hyperparameters," Working Paper 16-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  31. Gutierrez, Luciano & Piras, Francesco, 2014. "A global VAR model for the analysis of wheat export prices," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182723, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  32. John M Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2007. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Working Papers tecipa-284, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  33. Aaron Smith, 2005. "Forecasting in the presence of level shifts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 557-574.
  34. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2011. "Oil and US GDP: A Real-Time out-of Sample Examination," Working Papers 0004, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  35. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
  36. Angelidis, Timotheos & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2009. "Idiosyncratic risk matters! A regime switching approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 132-141, January.
  37. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  38. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2011. "Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Combining Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 216-227.
  39. Irina Zabelina & Ekaterina Klevakina, 2016. "Structural Changes in the Economy of Cross-Border Regions of Russia and China," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 1460-1467.
  40. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Shinhye Chang & Mehmet Balcilar & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Persistence of precious metal prices: a fractional integration approach with structural breaks," NCID Working Papers 06/2015, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
  41. Haiyan Song & Egon Smeral & Gang Li & Jason L. Chen, 2008. "Tourism Forecasting: Accuracy of Alternative Econometric Models Revisited," WIFO Working Papers 326, WIFO.
  42. Boivin, Jean & Giannoni, Marc P. & Mihov, Ilian, 2006. "Sticky prices and monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated US data," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  43. Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
  44. Ghassen El Montasser & Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "The Time-Series Linkages between US Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices," Working Papers 201519, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  45. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 990, CESifo Group Munich.
  46. Byrne, Joseph P & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J, 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," MPRA Paper 53684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  47. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations," IEPR Working Papers 06.42, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  48. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 642-675, October.
  49. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "G-7 Inflation forecasts," Working Paper Series 0151, European Central Bank.
  50. Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzales & Rodney W Strachan, 2011. "Bayesian Inference in a Time Varying Cointegration Model," CAMA Working Papers 2011-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  51. Elliott, Graham & Mueller, Ulrich K., 2004. "Optimally Testing General Breaking Processes in Linear Time Series Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt58n33447, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  52. Siliverstovs, B. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear, and structural change models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-16, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  53. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
  54. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
  55. Charl Jooste, Guangling (Dave) Liu and Ruthira Naraidoo, 2013. "Analysing the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the South African Economy," Working Papers 351, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  56. Chambers, Marcus J. & Ercolani, Joanne S. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2014. "Testing for seasonal unit roots by frequency domain regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 243-258.
  57. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 779, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  58. Siklos, P.L. & Granger, C.W.J., 1997. "Regime Sensitive Cointegration with an Application to Interest rate Parity," Working Papers 97-5, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
  59. Chew Lian Chua & Chin Nam Low, 2007. "Permanent Structural Change in the US Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2007n22, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  60. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Ravn, Morten O & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Markov Switching Causality and the Money-Output Relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 3803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  61. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Paper 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  62. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sehkposyan, 2013. "Evaluating Predictive Densities of US Output Growth and Inflation in a Large Macroeconomic Data Set," Working Papers 689, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  63. David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne, . "Confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown," Discussion Papers 14/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  64. Kruse, Yves Robinson & Kaufmann, Hendrik, 2015. "Bias-corrected estimation in mildly explosive autoregressions," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112897, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  65. Serwa, Dobromil, 2010. "Larger crises cost more: Impact of banking sector instability on output growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1463-1481, December.
  66. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working papers 2012-38, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
  67. Dées, Stéphane & Holly, Sean & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa, 2007. "Long run macroeconomic relations in the global economy," Working Paper Series 0750, European Central Bank.
  68. Miguel A.G. Belmonte & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2014. "Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time‐Varying Parameter Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 80-94, 01.
  69. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
  70. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  71. Hendry, David F & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 99, Royal Economic Society.
  72. Smith, Ron, 2009. "EMU and the Lucas Critique," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 744-750, July.
  73. He, Changli & Sandberg, Rickard, 2005. "Testing Parameter Constancy in Unit Root Autoregressive Models Against Continuous Change," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 579, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 08 Feb 2005.
  74. Adom, Philip Kofi & Bekoe, William, 2013. "Modelling electricity demand in Ghana revisited: The role of policy regime changes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 42-50.
  75. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2015. "Selection of an estimation window in the presence of data revisions and recent structural breaks," MPRA Paper 66759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  76. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4636, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  77. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2007. "Prior Elicitation in Multiple Change-point Models," Working Paper Series 17_07, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  78. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2004. "Cyclical Uncertainty and Physical Investment Decisions," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 169, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  79. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Forecasting EMU macroeconomic variables," Working Papers 216, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  80. Marine Carrasco & Barbara Rossi, 2016. "In-sample inference and forecasting in misspecified factor models," Economics Working Papers 1530, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  81. Branch, William A., 2007. "Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 245-276, January.
  82. Michael Flor, 2014. "Post Reunification Economic Fluctuations in Germany: A Real Business Cycle Interpretation," Working Papers 146, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
  83. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.
  84. Dées, Stéphane & di Mauro, Filippo & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, Vanessa, 2005. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0568, European Central Bank.
  85. Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June.
  86. Guidolin, Massimo, 2006. "Pessimistic beliefs under rational learning: Quantitative implications for the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 85-118.
  87. Ferrara, Laurent & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 664-679.
  88. repec:bny:wpaper:0037 is not listed on IDEAS
  89. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2014. "On infimum Dickey–Fuller unit root tests allowing for a trend break under the null," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 235-242.
  90. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
  91. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2003. "Testing for Volatility Changes in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 36, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  92. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2008. "Real-time squared: A real-time data set for real-time GDP forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 368-385.
  93. Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2004. "Least squares estimation and tests of breaks in mean and variance under misspecification," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 32-54, 06.
  94. McCracken, Michael W. & Ng, Serena, 2015. "FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Working Papers 2015-12, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 20 Aug 2015.
  95. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2006. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Working Paper Series 196, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  96. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, . "Break date estimation for models with deterministic structural change," Discussion Papers 13/02, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  97. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2004. "On the Time Variations of US Monetary Policy: Who is right?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 96, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  98. Giuseppe Cavaliere & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "Testing for unit roots in the presence of a possible break in trend and non-stationary volatility," Discussion Papers 09/05, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  99. Boonsoo Koo & Myung Hwan Seo, 2013. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: implications for forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  100. Liudas Giraitis & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2012. "Adaptive Forcasting in the Presence of Recent and Ongoing Structural Change," CAMA Working Papers 2012-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  101. Maheu, John & Song, Yong, 2012. "A new structural break model with application to Canadian inflation forecasting," MPRA Paper 36870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  102. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  103. Giordani, Paolo & Villani, Mattias, 2010. "Forecasting macroeconomic time series with locally adaptive signal extraction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 312-325, April.
  104. Benati, Luca & Goodhart, Charles, 2008. "Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1236-1272, April.
  105. Don H. Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  106. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2009. "Have Structural Changes Eliminated the Out-of-Sample Ability of Financial Variables To Forecast Real Activity After the Mid-1980s? Evidence From the Canadian Economy," Working Papers 0910, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
  107. Hammad A. Siddiqi, 2006. "Is it Social Influence on Beliefs Under Ambiguity? A Possible Explanation for Volatility Clustering," Microeconomics Working Papers 22279, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  108. Jorge Selaive & Vicente Tuesta, 2003. "Net Foreign Assets And Imperfect Financial Integration: An Empirical Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 252, Central Bank of Chile.
  109. Julian Ramajo & Miguel A. Marquez, 1998. "Structural change in regional economies: A varying coefficients econometric modeling approach," ERSA conference papers ersa98p189, European Regional Science Association.
  110. Malley, Jim & Woitek, Ulrich, 2010. "Technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated hybrid RBC model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1214-1232, July.
  111. Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Instability and non-linearity in the EMU," Working Papers 211, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  112. Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010. "Forecast Combinations," CREATES Research Papers 2010-21, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  113. Byrne, Joseph P. & Kortava, Ekaterina & MacDonald, Ronald, 2013. "A new approach to tests of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 654-667.
  114. Pulapre Balakrishnan & Mausumi Das & M. Parameswaran, 2015. "The Mechanism of Long-Term Growth in India," Working Papers id:6414, eSocialSciences.
  115. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047, September.
  116. Bakhodir A Ergashev, 2004. "Sequential Detection of US Business Cycle Turning Points: Performances of Shiryayev-Roberts, CUSUM and EWMA Procedures," Econometrics 0402001, EconWPA, revised 16 Mar 2004.
  117. Poyesh Bahadori Jahromi & Hojatallah Goudarzi, 2014. "The Study of Co-Integration and Casual Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and Insurance Penetration Ratio," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(7), pages 853-863, July.
  118. Harris, David & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2016. "Tests of the co-integration rank in VAR models in the presence of a possible break in trend at an unknown point," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 451-467.
  119. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2013. "Housing and the Great Depression," Working Papers 201308, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  120. Peter H. Sullivan, 2013. "Finding a Connection Between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals, How Should We Model Revisions to Forecasting Strategies?," 2013 Papers psu387, Job Market Papers.
  121. Hendry, David F., 2006. "Robustifying forecasts from equilibrium-correction systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 399-426.
  122. D van Dijk & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2002. "Changes in variability of the business cycle in the G7 countries," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0204, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  123. G. Cléaud & M. Lemoine & P.-A. Pionnier, 2013. "Which size and evolution of the government expenditure multiplier in France (1980-2010)?," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2013-15, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
  124. Aastveit, Knut Are & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11558, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  125. Amado Peiró, 2002. "Macroeconomic Synchronization Between G3 Countries," Working Papers. Serie EC 2002-16, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  126. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," CESifo Working Paper Series 875, CESifo Group Munich.
  127. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141.
  128. Ghosal, Vivek, 2007. "Regime Shift in Antitrust," MPRA Paper 5460, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  129. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "An Alternative Bayesian Approach to Structural Breaks in Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-023/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  130. Achim Zeileis & Torsten Hothorn, 2013. "A toolbox of permutation tests for structural change," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 931-954, November.
  131. Lyubomir Ivanov, 2005. "Is "The ideal filter" really Ideal: The usage of Frequency Filtering and Spurious Cycles," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 3(1), pages 79-96.
  132. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
  133. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James C., 2008. "Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 10372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  134. Adriatik Hoxha, 2016. "The Wage-Price Setting Behavior: Comparing The Evidence from EU28 and EMU," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 61-102, June.
  135. Jean-Stephane Mesonnier & Jean-Paul Renne, 2004. "A Time Varying Natural Rate of Interest for the Euro Area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 42, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  136. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2013. "Early Contract Renegotiation: An Analysis of US Labor Contracts, 1970-1995," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(4), pages 825 - 842.
  137. Hans KREMERS & Andreas LOESCHEL, . "The Strategic Implications of Setting Border Tax Adjustments," EcoMod2010 259600097, EcoMod.
  138. Nan Cai & Zongwu Cai & Ying Fang & Qiuhua Xu, 2015. "Forecasting major Asian exchange rates using a new semiparametric STAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 407-426, February.
  139. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2013. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 920, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  140. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Forecasting US employment growth using forecast combining methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 75-93.
  141. Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 20-38, February.
  142. repec:cty:dpaper:12/02 is not listed on IDEAS
  143. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2003. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-01, CIRANO.
  144. Arianna Agosto & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Dennis Kristensen & Anders Rahbek, 2015. "Modeling corporate defaults: Poisson autoregressions with exogenous covariates (PARX)," CREATES Research Papers 2015-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  145. Kocenda, Evzen, 2005. "Beware of breaks in exchange rates: Evidence from European transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 307-324, September.
  146. Jurgen Brauer, 2007. "Data, Models, Coefficients: The Case of United States Military Expenditure," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(1), pages 55-64, February.
  147. repec:hhs:bofrdp:2012_007 is not listed on IDEAS
  148. Luke Hartigan, 2015. "Changes in the Factor Structure of the U.S. Economy: Permanent Breaks or Business Cycle Regimes?," Discussion Papers 2015-17, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  149. Aue, Alexander & Horváth, Lajos & Reimherr, Matthew L., 2009. "Delay times of sequential procedures for multiple time series regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 174-190, April.
  150. Bunzel, Helle & Iglesias, Emma M., 2006. "Testing for Breaks Using Alternating Observations," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12694, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  151. Maria Demertzis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Nicola Viegi, 2009. "Anchors for Inflation Expectations," DNB Working Papers 229, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  152. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  153. Aiolfi, Marco & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 31-53.
  154. Czinkota, Thomas, 2012. "Das Halteproblem bei Strukturbrüchen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen
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  155. Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Persistence change tests and shifting stable autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 44-49, April.
  156. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2004. "Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  157. Aaron Smallwood, 2004. "Joint Tests for Long Memory and Non-linearity: The Case of Purchasing Power Parity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 23, Society for Computational Economics.
  158. Elano Ferreira Arruda & Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira & Ivan Castelar, 2008. "Modelos lineares e não lineares da curva de Phillips para previsão da taxa de Inflação no Brasil," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211607140, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  159. Luca Benati & Thomas A. Lubik, 2013. "The time-varying Beveridge curve," Working Paper 13-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  160. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  162. Akhter Faroque & William Veloce & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2008. "The impact of structural breaks on the stability of the out-of-sample predictive content of financial variables for Canada's real GDP growth: An encompassing approach," Working Papers 0803, Brock University, Department of Economics.
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  165. Guido Bulligan & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2010. "Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 303-336, October.
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  167. J. Huston McCulloch, 2005. "The Kalman Foundations of Adaptive Least Squares: Applications to Unemployment and Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 239, Society for Computational Economics.
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  169. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "A simple recursive forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
  170. Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2012. "A Century of Inflation Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1097-1106, November.
  171. Amado Peiró, 2002. "Macroeconomic Synchronization Between G3 Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(2), pages 137-153, 05.
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  173. Mésonnier, J-S. & Renne, J-P., 2004. "A Time-Varying Natural Rate for the Euro Area," Working papers 115, Banque de France.
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  175. Leandro M. Magnusson & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2011. "Identification Using Stability Restrictions," Working Papers 1116, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
  176. Kwakwa, Paul Adjei, 2014. "Energy-growth nexus and energy demand in Ghana: A review of empirical studies," MPRA Paper 54971, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Apr 2014.
  177. Gary M. Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and Estimating Multiple Change-point Models with an Unknown Number of Change-points," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/31, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  178. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen & Michael R. Pakko, 2007. "Inflation risk and optimal monetary policy," Working Papers 2006-035, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  179. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2014. "Multi-step forecasting in the presence of breaks," MPRA Paper 55816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  180. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Has monetary policy become less powerful?," Staff Reports 144, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  181. Catalin Starica & Clive Granger, 2004. "Non-stationarities in stock returns," Econometrics 0411016, EconWPA.
  182. Mubariz Hasanov & Aysen Arac & Funda Telatar, 2012. "Nonlinearity and Structural Stability in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Turkey," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20123, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
  183. Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2007. "Confidence sets for the date of a single break in linear time series regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1196-1218, December.
  184. Adriatik Hoxha, 2016. "The Switch to Near-Rational Wage-Price Setting Behaviour: The Case of United Kingdom," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(35), pages 127-148, may.
  185. Jan J.J. Groen & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2010. "Multivariate Methods for Monitoring Structural Change," Working Papers 658, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  186. Khiabani, Nasser, 2015. "Oil inflows and housing market fluctuations in an oil-exporting country: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-76.
  187. Robert Ingenito & Bharat Trehan, 1996. "Using monthly data to predict quarterly output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-11.
  188. Chen, Bin, 2015. "Modeling and testing smooth structural changes with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 196-215.
  189. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan G, 2016. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables under Model Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 11355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  190. Serena Ng & Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1997. "Analysis of Vector Autoregressions in the Presence of Shifts in Mean," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 379, Boston College Department of Economics.
  191. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Hartigan, Luke, 2016. "Is the Assumption of Linearity in Factor Models too Strong in Practice?," Working Papers 2072/261531, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  192. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
  193. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Ragnar Nymoen, 2012. "Mis-specification Testing: Non-Invariance of Expectations Models of Inflation," Working Paper Series 50_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  194. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model," NBER Technical Working Papers 0201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  195. Carrasco, Marine, 2002. "Misspecified Structural Change, Threshold, and Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 239-273, August.
  196. Seema Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2015. "The Financial Econometrics of Price Discovery and Predictability," Monash Economics Working Papers 06-15, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  197. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
  198. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  199. Pablo M. Pincheira & Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with a Simple and Accurate Benchmark: The Case of the US and a Set of Inflation Targeting Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(1), pages 2-29, January.
  200. Fernando N. de Oliveira, 2015. "Financial and Real Sector Leading Indicators of Recessions in Brazil using Probabilistic Models," Working Papers Series 402, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  201. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  202. Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2006. "The Turning Black Tide: Energy Prices and the Canadian Dollar," Staff Working Papers 06-29, Bank of Canada.
  203. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
  204. Kim, Kun Ho, 2011. "Density forecasting through disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 394-412, April.
  205. Berardi, Michele & Galimberti, Jaqueson K., 2013. "A note on exact correspondences between adaptive learning algorithms and the Kalman filter," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 139-142.
  206. William T. Gavin & David M. Kemme, 2007. "Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies," Working Papers 2004-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  207. Alan Kirman, 2010. "The Economic Crisis is a Crisis for Economic Theory ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(4), pages 498-535, December.
  208. Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2005. "Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: theory and application," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2005-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  209. Sandberg, Rickard, 2016. "Trends, unit roots, structural changes, and time-varying asymmetries in U.S. macroeconomic data: the Stock and Watson data re-examined," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 699-713.
  210. Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2015. "Forecasting in the presence of in and out of sample breaks," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  211. Giuseppe Parigi & Roberto Golinelli, 2007. "The use of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP in the short run: an application to the G7 countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 77-94.
  212. Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Lags in the response of gasoline prices to changes in crude oil," Econometrics 0406001, EconWPA.
  213. Heather M. Anderson & Chin Nam Low, 2004. "Random Walk Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised May 2005.
  214. Ricardo Mestre & Peter McAdam, 2011. "Is forecasting with large models informative? Assessing the role of judgement in macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 303-324, April.
  215. Benati, Luca, 2007. "Drift and breaks in labor productivity," Working Paper Series 0718, European Central Bank.
  216. Michael A. Flor, 2014. "Post Reunification Economic Fluctuations in Germany: A Real Business Cycle Interpretation," Discussion Paper Series 324, Universitaet Augsburg, Institute for Economics.
  217. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2013. "Testing for unit roots in the possible presence of multiple trend breaks using minimum Dickey–Fuller statistics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 265-284.
  218. Don H. Kim, 2009. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 519-544.
  219. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2010. "Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series," Discussion Papers 10/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  220. Roberto Tatiwa Ferreira & Luiz Ivan de Melo Castelar, 2005. "Forecasting Quarterly Brazilian Gdp Growth Rate With Linear And Nonlinear Diffusion Index Models," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  221. Philip Rothman, 2000. "Review of Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series, by Michael P. Clements and David F. Hendry," Working Papers 0016, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
  222. Aastveit, Knut Are, 2014. "Oil price shocks in a data-rich environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 268-279.
  223. Giammarino, Flavia & Barrieu, Pauline, 2009. "A semiparametric model for the systematic factors of portfolio credit risk premia," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 655-670, September.
  224. Philipp Wegmueller, 2015. "International Evidence on Time-Variation in Trend Labor Productivity Growth," Diskussionsschriften dp1602, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
  225. Leon Berkelmans, 2005. "Credit and Monetary Policy: An Australian SVAR," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  226. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2012. "Forecasting from Structural Econometric Models," Economics Series Working Papers 597, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  227. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  228. Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
  229. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers 80, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  230. Hendrik Kaufmannz & Robinson Kruse, 2013. "Bias-corrected estimation in potentially mildly explosive autoregressive models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-10, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  231. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-476 is not listed on IDEAS
  232. Michal Franta & Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak, 2011. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2011/13, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  233. Sandrine Lardic & Valérie Mignon, 2004. "Fractional cointegration and the term structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 723-736, December.
  234. Geweke, John & Jiang, Yu, 2011. "Inference and prediction in a multiple-structural-break model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 172-185, August.
  235. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan G, 2016. "Forecasting in Economics and Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 11354, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  236. Maheu, John M. & Song, Yong, 2014. "A new structural break model, with an application to Canadian inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 144-160.
  237. Dirk Ulbricht, 2016. "It is not structural breaks that earn average forecasts their fame," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 1250-1259.
  238. Jörg Polzehl & Vladimir Spokoiny & Catalin Starica, 2006. "When did the 2001 recession really start?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-032, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  239. Adom, Philip Kofi, 2015. "Asymmetric impacts of the determinants of energy intensity in Nigeria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 570-580.
  240. Kalli, Maria & Griffin, Jim E., 2014. "Time-varying sparsity in dynamic regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 779-793.
  241. Craig, Lee A. & Holt, Matthew T., 2008. "Mechanical refrigeration, seasonality, and the hog-corn cycle in the United States: 1870-1940," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 30-50, January.
  242. Rickard Sandberg, 2016. "Testing for unit roots in nonlinear heterogeneous panels with smoothly changing trends: an application to Scandinavian unemployment rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1053-1083, November.
  243. Batchelor, Roy & Alizadeh, Amir & Visvikis, Ilias, 2007. "Forecasting spot and forward prices in the international freight market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 101-114.
  244. Jon Huntley & Eric Miller, 2009. "An Evaluation of CBO Forecasts: Working Paper 2009-02," Working Papers 41195, Congressional Budget Office.
  245. Ahumada, Hildegart A. & Garegnani, Maria Lorena, 2012. "Forecasting a monetary aggregate under instability: Argentina after 2001," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 412-427.
  246. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Policy Regime Shifts," Economics Papers 2002-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  247. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
  248. Emanuela Ciapanna & Marco Taboga, 2011. "Bayesian analysis of coefficient instability in dynamic regressions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 836, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  249. Johannes Mayr & Dirk Ulbricht, 2007. "VAR Model Averaging for Multi-Step Forecasting," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 48, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  250. Iqbal, Javed, 2001. "Forecasting methods: a comparative analysis," MPRA Paper 23856, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
  251. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Nam, Kiseok, 2010. "Cointegration, dynamic structure, and the validity of purchasing power parity in African countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 755-768, October.
  252. Donald S. Allen & Meenakshi Pasupathy, 1997. "A state space forecasting model with fiscal and monetary control," Working Papers 1997-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  253. Guney, Selin, 2015. "An evaluation of price forecasts of the cattle market under structural changes," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205109, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
  254. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  255. Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Francisco Rubio-Ramirez, Juan, 2004. "Comparing dynamic equilibrium models to data: a Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 153-187, November.
  256. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2002. "Assessing changes in the monetary transmission mechanism: a VAR approach," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 97-111.
  257. Eo, Yunjong, 2008. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models with Regime Switching," MPRA Paper 13910, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2009.
  258. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Signaling asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Research Discussion Papers 7/2012, Bank of Finland.
  259. Kim, Kun Ho, 2011. "Density forecasting through disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 394-412.
  260. Boivin, Jean, 2006. "Has U.S. Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1149-1173, August.
  261. Kushal Banik Chowdhury & Nityananda Sarkar, 2015. "The Effect of Inflation on Inflation Uncertainty in the G7 Countries: A Double Threshold GARCH Model," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 7(1), pages 34-50, April.
  262. Khiabani, Nasser, 2010. "How Important are Oil and Money Shocks in Explaining Housing Market Fluctuations in an Oil-exporting Country?: Evidence from Iran," MPRA Paper 34041, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2011.
  263. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
  264. Albis, Manuel Leonard F. & Mapa, Dennis S., 2014. "Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates in Asymmetric Vector Autoregressive (AVAR) Models," MPRA Paper 55902, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  265. Nektarios Aslanidis & Luke Hartigan, 2016. "Is the Assumption of Linearity in Factor Models too Strong in Practice?," Discussion Papers 2016-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  266. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
  267. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  268. Ramos Lobo, R. & Clar López, M. & Suriñach Caralt, J., 2000. "Comparación de la capacidad predictiva de los modelos de coeficientes fijos frente a variables en los modelos econométricos regionales: un análisis para Cataluña," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 15, pages 125-162, Agosto.
  269. Donal Smith, 2016. "The International Impact of Financial Shocks: A Global VAR and Connectedness Measures Approach," Discussion Papers 16/07, Department of Economics, University of York.
  270. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen, 2013. "Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 101-123, January.
  271. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Testing for Granger (non)-Causality in a Time Varying Coefficient VAR Model," Studies in Economics 0802, School of Economics, University of Kent.
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  273. DUFAYS, Arnaud, 2012. "Infinite-state Markov-switching for dynamic volatility and correlation models," CORE Discussion Papers 2012043, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  274. Aksoy Yunus & Leon-Ledesma Miguel A., 2008. "Non-Linearities and Unit Roots in G7 Macroeconomic Variables," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-44, February.
  275. Ghosal, Vivek, 2006. "Discovering Cartels: Dynamic Interrelationships between Civil and Criminal Antitrust Investigations," MPRA Paper 5499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  276. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 305-340.
  277. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "Robust methods for detecting multiple level breaks in autocorrelated time series [Revised to become No. 10/01 above]," Discussion Papers 09/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  278. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2012. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," Staff Working Papers 12-21, Bank of Canada.
  279. Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh & Muhammad Aslam, 2015. "Is There an Arms Race Between Pakistan and India? An Application of GMM," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 20(2), pages 35-51, July-Dec.
  280. Wang, Cindy Shin-Huei & Bauwens, Luc & Hsiao, Cheng, 2013. "Forecasting a long memory process subject to structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 171-184.
  281. Junttila, Juha, 2001. "Structural breaks, ARIMA model and Finnish inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 203-230.
  282. Koo, Bonsoo & Seo, Myung Hwan, 2015. "Structural-break models under mis-specification: Implications for forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 166-181.
  283. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2012. "Structural Breaks and Predictive Regressions Models of South African Equity Premium," Working Papers 201209, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  284. Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan & Peel, David A., 2003. "Re-examination of the predictability of economic activity using the yield spread: a nonlinear approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 187-206.
  285. Vincenzo Cassino & Michael Joyce, 2003. "Forecasting inflation using labour market indicators," Bank of England working papers 195, Bank of England.
  286. Kavli, Haakon & Viegi, Nicola, 2015. "Are determinants of portfolio flows always the same? - South African results from a time varying parameter VAR model," MPRA Paper 66897, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  287. A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  288. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
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