IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/stpapr/v54y2013i4p931-954.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A toolbox of permutation tests for structural change

Author

Listed:
  • Achim Zeileis
  • Torsten Hothorn

Abstract

The sup $$LM$$ test for structural change is embedded into a permutation test framework for a simple location model. The resulting conditional permutation distribution is compared to the usual (unconditional) asymptotic distribution, showing that the power of the test can be clearly improved in small samples. Furthermore, the permutation test is embedded into a general framework that encompasses tools for binary and multivariate dependent variables as well as model-based permutation testing for structural change. It is also demonstrated that the methods can not only be employed for analyzing structural changes in time series data but also for recursive partitioning of cross-section data. The procedures suggested are illustrated using both artificial data and empirical applications (number of youth homicides, employment discrimination data, carbon flux in tropical forests, stock returns, and demand for economics journals). Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Achim Zeileis & Torsten Hothorn, 2013. "A toolbox of permutation tests for structural change," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 931-954, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stpapr:v:54:y:2013:i:4:p:931-954
    DOI: 10.1007/s00362-013-0503-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00362-013-0503-4
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00362-013-0503-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Freidlin, Boris & Gastwirth, Joseph L, 2000. "Changepoint Tests Designed for the Analysis of Hiring Data Arising in Employment Discrimination Cases," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 315-322, July.
    2. Strobl, Carolin & Boulesteix, Anne-Laure & Augustin, Thomas, 2007. "Unbiased split selection for classification trees based on the Gini Index," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 483-501, September.
    3. Anne Morrison Piehl & Suzanne J. Cooper & Anthony A. Braga & David M. Kennedy, 2003. "Testing for Structural Breaks in the Evaluation of Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 550-558, August.
    4. Achim Zeileis, 2005. "A Unified Approach to Structural Change Tests Based on ML Scores, F Statistics, and OLS Residuals," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 445-466.
    5. Theodore C. Bergstrom, 2001. "Free Labour for Costly Journals?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 183-198, Fall.
    6. Kennedy, Peter E, 1995. "Randomization Tests in Econometrics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 85-94, January.
    7. Torsten Hothorn & Achim Zeileis, 2008. "Generalized Maximally Selected Statistics," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1263-1269, December.
    8. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    9. Boulesteix, Anne-Laure & Strobl, Carolin, 2007. "Maximally selected Chi-squared statistics and non-monotonic associations: An exact approach based on two cutpoints," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(12), pages 6295-6306, August.
    10. Zeileis, Achim & Leisch, Friedrich & Hornik, Kurt & Kleiber, Christian, 2002. "strucchange: An R Package for Testing for Structural Change in Linear Regression Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 7(i02).
    11. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
    12. Hothorn, Torsten & Lausen, Berthold, 2003. "On the exact distribution of maximally selected rank statistics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 121-137, June.
    13. Hothorn, Torsten & Hornik, Kurt & van de Wiel, Mark A. & Zeileis, Achim, 2008. "Implementing a Class of Permutation Tests: The coin Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 28(i08).
    14. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    15. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    16. Luger, Richard, 2006. "Exact permutation tests for non-nested non-linear regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 513-529, August.
    17. Hansen, Bruce E., 2000. "Testing for structural change in conditional models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 93-115, July.
    18. Kramer, Walter & Ploberger, Werner & Alt, Raimund, 1988. "Testing for Structural Change in Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1355-1369, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Max Wornowizki & Roland Fried, 2016. "Two-sample homogeneity tests based on divergence measures," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 291-313, March.
    2. K. B. S. Huth & L. J. Waldorp & J. Luigjes & A. E. Goudriaan & R. J. Holst & M. Marsman, 2022. "A Note on the Structural Change Test in Highly Parameterized Psychometric Models," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 1064-1080, September.
    3. Wagner Martin & Zeileis Achim, 2019. "Heterogeneity and Spatial Dependence of Regional Growth in the EU: A Recursive Partitioning Approach," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 67-82, February.
    4. Yang Yi & Le Wen & Shan He, 2022. "Partitioning for “Common but Differentiated” Precise Air Pollution Governance: A Combined Machine Learning and Spatial Econometric Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-23, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Russell P. Robins & Geoffrey Peter Smith, 2020. "Selection bias and pseudo discoveries on the constancy of stock return anomalies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1407-1426, November.
    2. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
    3. Zeileis, Achim, 2006. "Implementing a class of structural change tests: An econometric computing approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(11), pages 2987-3008, July.
    4. M Sensier & D van Dijk, 2001. "Short-term Volatility versus Long-term Growth: Evidence in US Macroeconomic Time Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 08, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2008. "The turning black tide: energy prices and the Canadian dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 737-759, August.
    6. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Predictability Tests Robust against Parameter Instability," Papers 2307.15151, arXiv.org.
    7. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    8. Kraft, Kornelius & Lammers, Alexander, 2021. "Bargaining Power and the Labor Share - a Structural Break Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242342, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Edgar Merkle & Achim Zeileis, 2013. "Tests of Measurement Invariance Without Subgroups: A Generalization of Classical Methods," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 59-82, January.
    10. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios & Simon Price, 2013. "Multivariate Methods For Monitoring Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 250-274, March.
    11. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2002. "Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks," Research Working Paper RWP 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    12. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen, 2013. "Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 101-123, January.
    13. Thomas Windberger & Achim Zeileis, 2011. "Structural Breaks in Inflation Dynamics within the European Monetary Union," Working Papers 2011-12, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    14. Oleg Glouchakov, 2006. "Joint change point estimation in regression coeffcients and variances of the errors of a linear model," Working Papers 2006_3, York University, Department of Economics.
    15. Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Kramer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2003. "Testing and dating of structural changes in practice," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 109-123, October.
    16. Yazgan, M. Ege & Özkan, Harun, 2015. "Detecting structural changes using wavelets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 23-37.
    17. Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2004. "Least squares estimation and tests of breaks in mean and variance under misspecification," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 32-54, June.
    18. Achim Zeileis & Friedrich Leisch & Christian Kleiber & Kurt Hornik, 2005. "Monitoring structural change in dynamic econometric models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 99-121, January.
    19. K. B. S. Huth & L. J. Waldorp & J. Luigjes & A. E. Goudriaan & R. J. Holst & M. Marsman, 2022. "A Note on the Structural Change Test in Highly Parameterized Psychometric Models," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 1064-1080, September.
    20. Carolin Strobl & Julia Kopf & Achim Zeileis, 2015. "Rasch Trees: A New Method for Detecting Differential Item Functioning in the Rasch Model," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 80(2), pages 289-316, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:stpapr:v:54:y:2013:i:4:p:931-954. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.