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Expectations anchoring indexes for Brazil using Kalman filter: Exploring signals of inflation anchoring in the long term

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Nascimento de Oliveira
  • Wagner Piazza Gaglianone

Abstract

Our objective in this paper is to build expectations anchoring indexes for inflation in Brazil that are fundamentally driven by the monetary authority’s capacity to anchor long-term inflation expectations. The expectations anchoring indexes are generated from a Kalman filter, based on a state-space model that also takes into account fiscal policy dynamics. The model’s signals are constructed using inflation expectations from the Focus survey of professional forecasters, conducted by the Central Bank of Brazil, and from the swap and federal government bond markets, which convey daily information of long-term inflation expectations. Although varying across specifications, the expectations anchoring indexes that we propose tend to display a downward trajectory, more clearly in 2009, and show a recovery starting in 2016 until the end of the sample (mid-2017).

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Nascimento de Oliveira & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2020. "Expectations anchoring indexes for Brazil using Kalman filter: Exploring signals of inflation anchoring in the long term," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 163, pages 72-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2020-q3-163-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & João Pedro Neves Maia, 2022. "Interest rate expectations based on Taylor rule versus central bank’s survey: which performs better in a large emerging economy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(39), pages 4532-4544, August.
    2. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Vereda, Luciano & Araujo, Mateus de Azevedo, 2022. "What type of information calls the attention of forecasters? Evidence from survey data in an emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Díaz, Raime Rolando Rodríguez, 2023. "Can ignorance about the interest rate and macroeconomic surprises affect the stock market return? Evidence from a large emerging economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Marta Baltar Moreira Areosa & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2023. "Anchoring Long-term VAR Forecasts Based On Survey Data and State-space Models," Working Papers Series 574, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Bicchal, Motilal, 2022. "Central bank credibility and its effect on stabilization," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 73-94.
    6. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Pedro Mendes Garcia & José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "Rationality and anchoring of inflation expectations: An assessment from survey‐based and market‐based measures," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1027-1053, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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